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Organic Bull Rises Again 10/22/21

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US stock prices are rising again today, thanks to strong fundamental economic growth driven by free market capitalism. The rising tide of unfettered economic growth with no central bank interference means that stock prices should rise every day. And they do. 

What a world! All members of society will be rich, as the free market distributes wealth to all segments of society equally. 

Today is no exception. 

As you can see from this 2 hour bar chart, the market is now lifting off from a massive base. That base followed the terrible, and completely unnecessary September Bear Market of Blessed Memory. 

tvc_5f3db64f9a67f3aa8a9d18fece60657e.png

According to the rules of Modern Technical Analysis (aka MTA- change at 63rd Street for the Q line), all patterns are bullish, and the Measured Move Target (MMT, as derived) of 4680... Or 4860, I forget. Besides WTF difference does it make. 

Here's the one hour bar look. 

tvc_64db922df1038a98c648e9c699b2c6ae.png

There's no 5 day cycle projection yet. But fear not, intrepid bulls. The 2-3 day cycle projection is 4580. That coincides roughly with trend resistance indicated around 4575 on the hourly chart.  

tvc_c573cdf30038628221606b8cd5ccdd97.png


This is just the intraday look. For more: Bullish Intermediate Term Omens

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Meanwhile, check out BTC again. One thing I've noticed about it is that it tends to honor chart patterns and Hurst Cycle projections. Today it is pulling back from the top of its channel. Note that this is on a semilog scale, showing equal percentage moves vertically. "Orderly" personified.

tvc_556a69effbde68a394aebe8cb30b78c6.png

It now has projections of 71,000 and 91,000, as shown on the chart. And the conventional measured move target of this high base breakout is 101,000 give or take a few shekels. 

And from the archives of, "That looks familiar. Where have I seen it before?" I present, this. The 10 year Treasury yield chart. 

tvc_3613958458af65a18a6534db28b7abb1.png

Oh, yeah. This will end well. 

Thou shalt not fight the trend, saith the Load. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFvKWqUPmLU

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12 minutes ago, Jorma said:

As a public service here are some tips on how to avoid being killed by charging bulls.

https://skyaboveus.com/climbing-hiking/How-to-scare-cows-to-avoid-being-trampled-to-death

 

"The muscle structure of a cow's neck does not allow it to run quickly on a downward gradient". Thus the upward movement of the stock market shall be known as a bull market.

 

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How many were here when in 2007 stocks and inflation were going to the Moon.

2007 Housing collapse everyone ignored it.  Now 2021 China has the same problems. One thing for sure excess liquidity from china won't be coming to west. Since CCP is running the show in China. Price of apartment may not go down much and may make it impossible to sell their apartments. there will be no more apartment construction Boom. 

will they buy more raw material from Australia or Buy real estate in west?

Remember what happened to Japan after Bubble deflated. 

 

Checkout HYG and Move Index which are linked to Bond Market.

https://www.scmp.com/magazines/style/news-trends/article/3091222/japan-1980s-when-tokyos-imperial-palace-was-worth-more

 

https://corporate.nordea.com/article/67806/china-im-forever-blowing-bubbles-how-bad-is-the-situation-in-chinese-real-estate

 

1 hour ago, jp6 said:

We did get a huge bounce and was more then ,618. 

Now we have Double top like 2007 also Have H&S on Dow. NDX is making lower High similar to Dow 2007. Spx is making slightly higher high then September top.

Believe that Dow would make it to 36K. should have realise when it wasn't going down according to plan that it will be like 2007. slightly higher high. Not like Y2K or 1929. 

What we will see a distribution then Plunge.

1974 Bottom to 1987 top was 662 weeks

2007 Bottom to 2021 top if it's 662 weeks would come to 8th November. I believe It will come before 8th November.

Here are some charts showing You 2007 top and H&S on Dow. neckline is from 1929 top, 2000 Top. There is a good chance that Dow will hit 36K before it's all over. 

NDX should not takeout 15510 on closing price then Bearish scenario may begin week commencing 25th October or by 8th November. Most likely it will be over before 8th. November.

 

 

 

Top like 2007.png

152 months top head and shoulder.png

 

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