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Time Bomb Countdown Begins 10/15/21

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Yesterday when we left New York for the day the 5 day cycle projection on the ES S&P fucutures was 4460. So far, it has gotten to 4456 as of 11 AM here in central Europe, 5 AM New York Times. They've hit uptrend channel resistance and the hourly oscillators have rolled over, indicating 5 day cycle top formation. We can also see that the fartcal pattern has played out. And we also see the rare, but not unusual long necked brontosaurus formation.

But a higher high with a negative divergence in the indicators is still possible. It's the usual pattern. It would be consistent with long necked brontosaurus projectile vomit. Not to mention explosive bear diarrhea. 

Investing is serious business and it's important to consider all disciplines in our analcystitis. 

I've sent this post to WSJ, Bloomberg and CNBC with permission to republish. 

Carry on. 

I'm heading for my next destination later today. Szczecin was boring. Completely lacking in urban energy. Next stop is the seaside town of Swinoujscie on the Baltic Sea at the German border. I expect it to be very quiet there.

I'll spend a few days resting and catching up on Liquidity Trader reports. I'll post a report later today examining the implications of the beginning of renewed Treasury bill issuance and the drawdown of the Fed's RRP slush fund.  The time bomb clock has been started.


This is just the intraday look. For more: Head and Shoulders Above

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So transitory is dead

Long live the next FN!!!!!

That stands for false narrative

The Fed needs to improve its false narrative game

It's an international laughing stock!!!!

The Fed really needs to have narratives that rate highly on the FNCI

Jimbo has an idea

Drumroll please:

They have a false narrative competition

Cash prizes for the best false narrative

My entry:

"Inflation is contained"

Worked for sub prime for quite a while!!!!!!!

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1 hour ago, Jimbo said:


The NY Times this week did yeoman work explaining that inflation was the result of supply chain bottlenecks and the fallout of Covid. I actually am just going off headlines but I would be shocked if they mentioned gigantic waves of credit, ie. money, having a thing to do with it. 

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