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The Hourly Chart Bear Market (Bottom?) 10/12/21

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If this was a daily chart, it would be a bear market. It's not. It's just 2 hour bars. And last week's triangle breakout looks like a bottom. The current pullback would be a test of the low, and it appears to have reversed in the last hour, as of 6 AM New York Times. 



Switch to the hourly bars, and this does look like a 5 day cycle low starting to form here. But at the same time, there are still several downtrend channels still in force.  The test of whether the hourly chart bear market is complete will come when the current pop tests 4365, 75, and 85, if it gets to those levels. Clearing 4385 would suggest that a good short term bottom is in place. A rollover below that would suggest that the 10 day trading range is a consolidation in a downtrend. 



This is just the intraday look. For more: Head and Shoulders Above

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They couldn't make this more dull if they tried. 

The lack of posts is a testament. 

Tomorrow, I head for Szcezin. The center of Wroclaw is another ridiculously charming place. 

I should be jaded by now, but the architecture is just so jaw-droppingly gorgeous, I can't.  It never gets old. Meanwhile, the work goes on. I'll work on a macro liquidity report on the train tomorrow. 

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I would like to introduce a new index.

The false narrative credibility index.

The F N C I.

This index tracks the credibility of a false narrative.

The level of belief that the narrative retains.

From 1 to 100.

Take the transitory narrative as an example.

It's at about 10 right now.


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Nibbling on PM miners, bought SAND under 6. Got to buy em while they're on sale. I do know they aren't a miner but royalties are good. Love AG, was hoping to pick it up around 10. Now looking like the bargain was under 11 but I'm still hopeful. AEM buying KL, should be awesome if gold catches fire. Pretty good even if it doesn't. 

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Your right

Transitory deserves a 1 right now.

The Fed is just trying to keep the bond herd from stampeding  while the smart money quietly exits.

Whilst the Fed is printing at a rate of 7% of GDP annually.

The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is printing at 12%.

So Australia will get more inflation.

The Aussie will fall against the dollar.

And the J number will be higher in Australia.

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