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Is It a Bear Market Yet? 9/24/21

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The market peaked yesterday afternoon around 2 PM at 4458 on the ES S&P futures. In the short short run, it was a higher high. But in the longer short run, since the September 6 high, it was a lower high. 

So is the short term trend bullish or bearish? 

It all depends on what happens here at 6:15 AM in New York. There are support lines at 4425 and 4417 and then around 4415 at about the time New York opens for trading. If they hold, then the short short term bullish trend still rules. If they fail to hold, then 4380 would beckon. At that level the market would make a decision about the future of the world as we know it. 

tvc_f9fefd1d47fdfe06e6f6a544f0b1861c.png

2-3 day cycle projection says we're going to 4420 here. 

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Meanwhile, for your longer term infotainment and edification:

Liquidity Matters, The Fed’s BS Doesn’t

Stock Market on the Brink

Get Ready for the Coming Bond Market Bloodbath

When Hope Is Not a Good Thing

Lots of Sell Signals Again From Friday’s Swing Trade Screen

Useless Banking Indicators Except for One Giant Red Flag

 

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  • DrStool changed the title to Is It a Bear Market Yet? 9/24/21
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All it was Short covering and bulls Buying. Double rocket fuel. Nothing has changed. 

Fake break down was followed by Fake breakout.

Today will find out if Bulls have any more rocket fuel for another Huge green candle.

 

Bob Farrell's 10 Rules Click here

A lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.

Chart 3  -  Bob Farrell 10 Rules

 

 

 

1416977666_24sepmorningfakeout.thumb.png.1f7d9294625cb838b77892cbcfd135ba.png

 

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1 hour ago, potatohead said:

my guess is the 2 Treasury year note saw very little of that T-Bill paydown?

image.thumb.png.98234d319ebd03e525c7c7a5d5cfe6f8.png

RRP slush fund, i.e. the institutional money fund of money market funds rose by $70 billion yesterday, and they only withdrew about $40 billion today.  The rest is still sitting there. Over the last week it is up $96 billion. 

Liquidity Matters, The Fed’s BS Doesn’t

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We need to be clear again about where that $69 billion came from. Yesterday the US Treasury paid down $86 billion in T-bills. $17 billion went somewhere else. Just a coincidence of course that stocks rose a zillion points. No causal relationship there. No sir. 

Liquidity Matters, The Fed’s BS Doesn’t

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