TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Mark?s Market Commentary ? March 7, 2003 No Girlfriend of the Week. ?Because this week?s credit belongs to the Office of Plungeland Security and Federal Open Market Committee Program Robot. I wonder if ?it? will show up as the Special Guest on Louis Rukeyser tonight?.. Turns out "it" is a She . . . Metropolis: music by Nine Inch Nails Daytrading Stoolie trying to maintain short position against Greenspam and the PPT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Hey Guys, Mark I'm still long, and still nervous with 4,000 shares RYVYX @10.50 ea. The rest of my funds have been in Nuberger Berman's High Yield & Strong Short Term High Yield for about 3 months now. The Nav's are up comfortably above the purchase price and the blended yield is close to 7%. Interesting disconnect going on between the value of "quality" high yield bonds and the underlying equites. I may be wrong but, if we can get past this ridiculous predicament that his royal shit brain has gotten us into with Iraq, we may actually see the enormous liquidity out there ignite some decent economic growth. Our phones are ringing off the hooks again with people ready to refinance and. at a lesser %, buy homes. A whole new refinance boom may be in the works and, if the 10 year breaks below the Oct low in yields, Katy bar the door! It full speed ahead here in L.A. This bubble is just going to get a bit bigger before it explodes. After that I've already got my application in for my new position, at Starbucks. Be Well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 "There is absolutely no doubt that the QQQ bears have the upper hand in the current market struggle." - Adam Hamilton [in article linked by purdymouth] If you review the results of successful mechanical trading systems, the "winning trades" are usually less than 50% of total trades. But since the dollar value of winning trades is typically 2-3 times larger than the losers, the system makes money on balance. A winning system has a statistical edge, but it isn't huge, and the system is more often wrong than right. For any real-world system trader, a statement that "there is absolutely no doubt" that bears have the upper hand is ludicrous. It would be equally ludicrous if he had "absolutely no doubt" that bulls have the upper hand. This kind of chest-thumping posturing is characteristic of poseurs who scribble instead of trade for a living. I like Hamilton's colorful charts and over-the-top huffing and puffing, as entertainment. But I'll bet he's a paper trader rather than a real-money trader. Successful traders are humble, because the market repeatedly humbles you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Jobs report today was pretty bad. What is completely amazing to me is that nobody in the media questions the numbers. How can so many jobs be lost over the last three years and the unemployment rate stay in the 5% range? Why is there no questioning of this completely manipulated statistic? As long as the government-media propaganda machine exists Joe Consumer will remain in ignorance. By the time he gets a clue it'll be all over. Today more than ever I am a believer in Hypertigers doomsday scenario. Gas is $2 a gallon here in sillycon valley now. Premium fuel costs $2.30/gal. Sheeple still driving everywhere oblivious. Prices on food starting to increase a little bit. How long can prices and taxes rise while wages fall? Will people still pay $4 for a Starbucks latte or $2 for their delicious mocha brownies? Where can I go to check into this oblivious dream state these people are living in? damn, I am pissed off today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Most of you have gone delusional, part of a third wave "fuzzy" thinking mentality that sweeps the public psyche.... I understand. SG predicted on IDS On Monday 23.95 on the Q's using simple E wave analysis and Fibo Nacchos to figure it out. Today we hit 23.96 as a wave 5 bottom.... The retrace was your typical hysterical retrace that we keep getting off wave 1 bottoms. The dances of 1's and 2's continues. However, the trend in this 3rd wave is surely going down and not even near complete. Covering shorts is not a good move unless you are worried about a 1 day move or something. Play an intermediate term position, because the 3rd wave is not even close to ending... Read my thread tonight, get some perspective. There is no PPT, there is no magic working of the levers... And yes... the E waves are consistently correct.... to the penny for me this week almost ,and the upside move today was a clear A-B-C. I also predicted last night and this am that traders were caught flat and would make sure to get short... they did, they are... 22.90 next bottom... you heard it here... again.... I'm a vey novice in Elliott Theory and just wondering : Aren't we supposed to retrace (usual %78) the wave 3 move of QQQ from Jan 13 to Feb 13.. (Assuming we're in wave 4 of the count started on Dec 2) That will take us to 26.50'ish and close the gap, too.. If there's no PPT involvement right now, God save us when the war starts..Who's gonna sell ? Only people selling are shorts I guess right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Jobless claims got uglier on the same day that nonfarm payrolls rose unexpectedly, on the same day that a rumor pertaining to the capture of OBL's son sent a cheer through the trading floor and sent stocks skyrocketing - only to be denied later by the US Gubment - after the close of trading. If you're day trading this charade - you'd better do it with an earpiece hardwired to the financial propoganda machine. Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 "PKO" just happens to be the acronym for the infamous "Price Keeping Operations" which have kept the Tokyo Stock Exchange moribund and rangebound for years. Morbund and rangebound. Well, they did manage to do so far part of the '90s. A Nipping Breeze blowing through the Nikkei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Does this look bullish to you? I am out for the weekend, but I expect to be back in on Monday, barring any improbable upside gap. Downside more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donovan's Reef Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Jane Wells on Crapvision said something on the Closing Bell; that she doesn't know anyone that hasn't cashed out on their home equity. She was standing in a Kohl's store probably to make the point that people are spending their home equity on that? It's a sad commentary and it will come to bite us all in the future. When this housing market cracks there will be a wailing and gnashing of the teeth we have never seen. OTB... good to see another Coastie on this board. DR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Simple Guy, Driver and Thor-thank you! There are far, far too many delusional scared Bears on this board. For those that are stay in cash and WATCH-you will be SAFE! For people like CoBoy-you have been talking for a week about going long if you believe it-DO IT! Now Mark you refer to this as a do nothing week-EXCUSE ME-last friday DOW CLOSE-7891.08-today-7740.03-COMP-last Friday1337.52-today-1305.29-SPX-last Friday-841.15-today-828.89-NDX-last Friday-1009.74-today 986.82. If you had simply shorted last Friday and held you would be sitting on a pot of money. Todays downdraft at the open was a result of the world markets getting creamed overnite-ours was primed and ready to fall off the cliff when the news flash said "Osama Bin Ladens sons arrested" and the weak bears immediately rolled over stuck their asses in the air and said "rape me". Well you know what it was only a RUMOUR and at the end of the day NOTHING HAPPENED the markets hit first resistance and croaked. But it does show how desparate DA BOYZ are they are cornered and they know it. Last night one of the posters said "since the markets are tanking they'll probably bring Osama out of the deep freeze to save the day" Little did he know how right he would be. My stop was lowered yesterday from 853 to 841 and it didn't even come close-still 100% short-this puppy is far,far from the bottom. To calm your nerves go back to the second week in January note the top and you will see that every single week since then has been down, down, down etc. this is an opportunity you may never see in your lifetime if you don't let the lies,jams, squeezes etc. reduce you to a whimpering hulk. Myself and many others on this board are having a great year a KA CHING year because we control our emotions, use intelligent stops and stay the course. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Hey Guys,Mark I'm still long, and still nervous with 4,000 shares RYVYX @10.50 ea. The rest of my funds have been in Nuberger Berman's High Yield & Strong Short Term High Yield for about 3 months now. The Nav's are up comfortably above the purchase price and the blended yield is close to 7%. Interesting disconnect going on between the value of "quality" high yield bonds and the underlying equites. I may be wrong but, if we can get past this ridiculous predicament that his royal shit brain has gotten us into with Iraq, we may actually see the enormous liquidity out there ignite some decent economic growth. Our phones are ringing off the hooks again with people ready to refinance and. at a lesser %, buy homes. A whole new refinance boom may be in the works and, if the 10 year breaks below the Oct low in yields, Katy bar the door! It full speed ahead here in L.A. This bubble is just going to get a bit bigger before it explodes. After that I've already got my application in for my new position, at Starbucks. Be Well Well....INTC lowers lowered estimates, jobless claims going up, wages down, something like 20% unemployment in San Mateo Co., CA (my former co. of employment) over 12% in SF Co., P/E ratios still at historical highs of 30 on S&P, NIKKEI at 20 year low, European bourses at 5-8 year lows, crude prices soaring = gas prices soaring, dollar falling, can't even give cars away anymore (w/ the exception of H2s in LA), real estate prices declining in markets where price inflation first began (SF BAY, NY Metro, Seattle), 95% of the humans and 100% of all other living things believe GWB is insane.....Markets may 'rally' for a few days here and there. I'll scalp hard and fast with delight. But, I just don't see a few thousand more refis in West LA making any contribution to sustained economic growth. Maybe we agree that the bubble inflates a little more. A little but it going off the cliff. I move sand around for a guy who has lowered the price on a 4000sfer in San Marino three times since Nov. Says LA boomimg on 'hot air'. Says Insurance prems gonna explode this yr. - he's a big wholesale broker. Tax rates going up thanks to Gov. G. So, much more coming out of the ever MORE "productive" slave's paychecks. All that said, now that I paid off previous 6-month 0% gifts in full (+ the 23% 7/5/02 short premium return I keepie for the paper cut sustained sealing the Postage Paid Business Reply), MBNA (CAL Alum) AND Discover would like to offer me 50K more each at 0% until June 2004. Fine. Keeps 'em busy in Grand Cayman and Baltimore. It's nuts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Jane Wells on Crapvision said something on the Closing Bell; that she doesn't know anyone that hasn't cashed out on their home equity. She was standing in a Kohl's store probably to make the point that people are spending their home equity on that? It's a sad commentary and it will come to bite us all in the future. When this housing market cracks there will be a wailing and gnashing of the teeth we have never seen. OTB... good to see another Coastie on this board. DR DR...WLBs and TC Petaluma. You? Feel for those squiddly guys and gals floating around watching the news. My guess is morale isn't peaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 The mystic market, and 95% of its arena combatants, are completely nuts. Ya gotta love it, ya just gotta! As Machinehead would say: "Wall Street Rocks!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Major Bottom Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Thanks for keeping with the posts Mark. They are appreciated. With all the accounting travesties perpetrated here and in Europe it is very unlikely we have seen the last of them. The incentives to cheat have been too strong for too long and the punishment, if any, is insignificant. The follow up on these mega thefts by the press has been anemic at best. Not exciting news when billions are stolen from millions apparently. The lenders were up today and the jobs data sucked. One wonders (foolishly) who will be doing all the borrowing. Anticipation of Bin being caught, or Al cutting one, or Cruse missile toys on TV (with real live targets), are all kind of exciting and give bulls something to look forward to. Bad and extra bad news lately has been taken as good and extra good news. Possibly the looming crusade to Baghdad has people so focused that nothing else can fit into their notice chambers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Jobs report today was pretty bad. What is completely amazing to me is that nobody in the media questions the numbers. How can so many jobs be lost over the last three years and the unemployment rate stay in the 5% range? Why is there no questioning of this completely manipulated statistic? As long as the government-media propaganda machine exists Joe Consumer will remain in ignorance. By the time he gets a clue it'll be all over. Today more than ever I am a believer in Hypertigers doomsday scenario. Gas is $2 a gallon here in sillycon valley now. Premium fuel costs $2.30/gal. Sheeple still driving everywhere oblivious. Prices on food starting to increase a little bit. How long can prices and taxes rise while wages fall? Will people still pay $4 for a Starbucks latte or $2 for their delicious mocha brownies? Where can I go to check into this oblivious dream state these people are living in? damn, I am pissed off today! I doubt J6P remains ignorant of the unemployment rate. Regardless of the headline which is released for the sole purpose of the market. You either have a job or you don't. You either see your friends and neighbors being laid off or you don't. Even at 0% unemployment if your friends and co-workers are getting laid off your going to get fearful. I've met with many people across the economic spectrum i the last week and none of them have a clue what the unemployment rate is, but they are deeply concerned about the economy and starting to pull back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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