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Here's Why Today Looks Like Zero Day in the Stock Market Futures - 8/23/21

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2 minutes ago, Jorma said:

The Fed's Jackson confab is virtual this year. Did you get an invite Lee? 

I wonder if after 21 years of complaining about them online if anyone there knows who I am. I know that an Economic VP at St. Louis Fed blocked me on Twitter.  

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

Every month from the 12-14th to the 19th-21st. Do I think that the market strength that is typically concurrent or follows soon after is related? Hellyeah. 

Thanks, Doc. Now I gotta check for patterns around 12-14th. 

I'm off to PullMyFinger Capital's Latin American "office" for some largely undeserved tequila and cerveza research and inspection. Will be mostly out of the Stool Yard the next few days. Feel free to crash the markets in my absence. Someone else will have to take up the banner of inane questions that are my hallmark. Fortunately, I endeavor to keep the bar low! 😃Hasta luego! 

 

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

It's not that they "don't even try to hide it any longer." They have never tried to hide anything in regard to market manipulation. All of the information that I use in my analysis is public record. Bernanke stated the policy in a November 2010 editorial in the Washington Post. He and following Fedheads have never hidden that. In fact, they've shouted it from the mountaintops. They've occasionally obfuscated on details of piddly shit individual bailouts, but never on the fact that the purpose of monetary policy was to suppress bond yields and lift stock prices.  

So it's not correct that the Fed ever hid what it was doing. I agree with them that Fed policy is morally reprehensible, and counter productive for everybody but mega speculators and bankers. But I disagree that it was hidden. That's just not true. 

I agree that it has not been hidden.

Many of my friends do not believe the FED is involved AT ALL.

(most of them have 401K and crow about all time highs).........

Futhermore,

Sorta like when "anal cyst" keep saying if they(FED) do XXXX,

they "may lose credibility" "in the future".

at that point they are 🎶 🐒

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13 minutes ago, DrStool said:

The people who dollar cost averaged into their 401ks year after year were the smart ones. We, who thought about all this, were the dumb money. 

helps even more when they got matching funds, even though their company

went bankrupt/bail-out/MIC/TBTF, et al.

et easy al........

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

He pointed it out, but he seems unaware of the reason, as if the Fed is trying to hide something. The Fed has always published this stuff in detail in advance. We know exactly how much will settle, and when it will settle, 30 days ahead. 

The problem isn't that the Fed isn't hiding it. The problem is that nobody is connecting the fucking dots, because they're just not paying attention to the basic accounting. Apparently, I'm the only one who bothered to look at the data and make the connection.  Good for me, bad for everyone else. Hopefully, I will continue to be alone in doing this.  

Funny thing is that economists have no idea wtf I'm talking about. Only the CPAs understand it.  

Even most traders have trouble believing just how direct the Fed's market impact is. Monetary policy works through the conduit of the Primary Dealers and the financial markets, and only secondarily into the banking system and the economy. The market impact is first order effect. The economy is down the line a couple steps. 

"Funny thing is that economists have no idea wtf I'm talking about."

 

Then you have the FinTwit stars that are constantly interviewed on the subscription circuit and are looked at as Fed gods. Many have no clue how the system works and even believe the regulatory frame work as well as loan creation is what drives inflation and the stock market. Many of these Fintwit stars actually believe in deflation while at the same time the Fed's balance goes up a 100 billion a month.....Crypto is looked at as gold and actual gold is looked at as a pet rock. WTF? The whole thing is insane.

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2 minutes ago, potatohead said:

"Funny thing is that economists have no idea wtf I'm talking about."

 

Then you have the FinTwit stars that are constantly interviewed on the subscription circuit and are looked at as Fed gods. Many have no clue how the system works and even believe the regulatory frame work as well as loan creation is what drives inflation and the stock market. Many of these Fintwit stars actually believe in deflation while at the same time the Fed's balance goes up a 100 billion a month.....Crypto is looked at as gold and actual gold is looked at as a pet rock. WTF? The whole thing is insane.

I added my two cents to one of those threads, and got zero traction. They're not interested. 

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4 hours ago, DrStool said:

It's not that they "don't even try to hide it any longer." They have never tried to hide anything in regard to market manipulation. All of the information that I use in my analysis is public record. Bernanke stated the policy in a November 2010 editorial in the Washington Post. He and following Fedheads have never hidden that. In fact, they've shouted it from the mountaintops. They've occasionally obfuscated on details of piddly shit individual bailouts, but never on the fact that the purpose of monetary policy was to suppress bond yields and lift stock prices.  

So it's not correct that the Fed ever hid what it was doing. I agree with them that Fed policy is morally reprehensible, and counter productive for everybody but mega speculators and bankers. But I disagree that it was hidden. That's just not true. 

So... what you're saying is they hide it?

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ALLMOST ALL STOCKS CAN STILL MAKE WAY WITH THIS WIND

So long as the fed keeps on providing the fair wind of QE most stocks will continue to rise.

But the markets tired and the wind not as effective as it once was.

Real rates this negative cant last.

The market is delicate.

Its fragile.

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