DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 The S&P futures (ES) didn't make it to the 5 day cycle projection of 4472 before starting a little pullback this morning. The 4450 area is a potential sport level. If it doesn't hold, then we'll look to 4440 and 4430. Even at 4430 the 3 day uptrend would remain intact. In fact, the bottom of the trend channel off Thursday's low is down at 4410 at 4:30 AM NY time, and rises to 4422 at the NY open. My guess is that this channel won't be broken on this pullback. After the next bounce, we'll see. If this pullback holds here, and does not break 4450, then the likely initial targets would again be 10 point increments of 4460, 4470, and 4480. Today must be multiples of 10 day. And now for your longer term listening and dining pleasure: Here are the Keys as the Trend is Intact, But on Edge Despite the Rally Primary Dealers Are Still At Risk If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 5 day cycle projection rises to 4487. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 Time for me to run some errands. Ciao for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 Question for Doc when he returns to the Stool today. Hope this chart is legible enough, I struggle with pixels. 🙂 You have written before about settlements that happen mid-month. Check out ES action around the 19th of each month since April. Is this a function of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, PullMyFinger said: Question for Doc when he returns to the Stool today. Hope this chart is legible enough, I struggle with pixels. 🙂 You have written before about settlements that happen mid-month. Check out ES action around the 19th of each month since April. Is this a function of that? https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1428770797922013185 Sven Henrich posted-tweeted on that matter, too...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 19 minutes ago, MisFit Kid said: https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1428770797922013185 Sven Henrich posted-tweeted on that matter, too...... Open secret then I guess. I don't follow Sven--is he one of those perma bears? Interesting pattern. Something works until it doesn't, I guess. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said: Open secret then I guess. I don't follow Sven--is he one of those perma bears? Interesting pattern. Something works until it doesn't, I guess. 🙂 Is he a Perma bear.......maybe. He says realist with some sarcasm. He does not outright say short this or that stock/index. Opex the reason for the pattern......maybe. regardless, The fraudexes have been pushed higher for more than a decade now (until it does not work, right) 😀 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 4 hours ago, DrStool said: 5 day cycle projection rises to 4487. And it's done. New projection, 4520. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 The conventional measurement of the base breakout is 4600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 3 hours ago, PullMyFinger said: Question for Doc when he returns to the Stool today. Hope this chart is legible enough, I struggle with pixels. 🙂 You have written before about settlements that happen mid-month. Check out ES action around the 19th of each month since April. Is this a function of that? Every month from the 12-14th to the 19th-21st. Do I think that the market strength that is typically concurrent or follows soon after is related? Hellyeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MisFit Kid said: https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1428770797922013185 Sven Henrich posted-tweeted on that matter, too...... He pointed it out, but he seems unaware of the reason, as if the Fed is trying to hide something. The Fed has always published this stuff in detail in advance. We know exactly how much will settle, and when it will settle, 30 days ahead. The problem isn't that the Fed isn't hiding it. The problem is that nobody is connecting the fucking dots, because they're just not paying attention to the basic accounting. Apparently, I'm the only one who bothered to look at the data and make the connection. Good for me, bad for everyone else. Hopefully, I will continue to be alone in doing this. Funny thing is that economists have no idea wtf I'm talking about. Only the CPAs understand it. Even most traders have trouble believing just how direct the Fed's market impact is. Monetary policy works through the conduit of the Primary Dealers and the financial markets, and only secondarily into the banking system and the economy. The market impact is first order effect. The economy is down the line a couple steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 Since the pandemonium QE began, the monthly MBS settlements have run $110-130 billion every month, third week of the month. Kind of makes sense that the shorts are getting scorched. This is on top of the $80 billion in Treasury purchases throughout the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 regarding Sven, I would say he points the finger directly at the FED's (J Powell) "policy" and central banks. (through most of his tweets) as for the chart I posted from his tweet, his first line of the tweet "They don't even try to hide it any longer. " >: He does fail to directly mention the timing(s) of the FED/QE/payments/paydowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 It's not that they "don't even try to hide it any longer." They have never tried to hide anything in regard to market manipulation. All of the information that I use in my analysis is public record. Bernanke stated the policy in a November 2010 editorial in the Washington Post. He and following Fedheads have never hidden that. In fact, they've shouted it from the mountaintops. They've occasionally obfuscated on details of piddly shit individual bailouts, but never on the fact that the purpose of monetary policy was to suppress bond yields and lift stock prices. So it's not correct that the Fed ever hid what it was doing. I agree with them that Fed policy is morally reprehensible, and counter productive for everybody but mega speculators and bankers. But I disagree that it was hidden. That's just not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted August 23, 2021 Report Share Posted August 23, 2021 The Fed's Jackson confab is virtual this year. Did you get an invite Lee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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