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Curb Your Dog- 8/11/21

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The market keeps messin with us, trying to fool us into thinking that it's finally going to do something. I don't know about you, but I've been fooled twice, so I guess we know who the fool is. 

At 5:40 AM in Noo Yak, the 5 day cycle is currently in a down phase with a cycle projection of 4422, woop de doo. 

However, if it holds there, then the chart would still be...

Drum roll...

Wait for it...

Bullish! 

tvc_8c93235b0677c402898bb58c430cbe9d.png

With exciting free markets like these, it's hard to curb your enthusiasm.  

 

And now for your longer term listening and dining pleasure:

Gold is Facing the Kiss of Death

We’re There, And Here’s Where That Is

Chart Picks – 41 Buy Signals and 28 Sell Signals Give Us 3 Picks

US Economy Just Went Over a Cliff

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

If you include the 20% housing inflation, it's 10-11%. 

Living in Denver since 2011, it feels a lot worse than 20%. I have benefitted mightily from housing inflation over the last 10 years. I can only imagine what it has been like in the Bay Area or Seattle or other places with markets even more stupid than here. 

Mrs. Finger and I bought our (hopefully) final house last year in a fortuitous little blip of time during the Covid panic before the market exploded upward again. Our daughter is a realtor here and she says we could probably sell for 40% more than we paid. It's an OK house in a little golf course community and in retrospect we got a decent deal from a motivated seller, but in no way does it justify a 40% premium over what we paid. I thought I overpaid a bit last year. As usual, I was wrong. Just bonkers. But I'm no real estate savant--lost about 60% on my Las Vegas house in the crash there. Was awhile ago, but still seems like yesterday. Hard to forget that kind of haircut. 

My daughter has been a realtor here for about 8 years now I think. She has never seen a bear market. At this rate, it feels like she may never see one. 

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I sold my last house in FL in June 2005. Pretty much top ticked my neighborhood. The market dried up in October, and the prices that happened for the next 6 months were in a vacuum of hardly any sales. Volume dries up first. 

I plan to sell my current house in FL, this winter.  I should hold on to it. It's 5 miles from the beach. In a few years it will be oceanfront. Of course, no guarantee that in a few more years it won't be under water. 

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Denver Post had an article recently that the median price here is about $600k. I saw some stats in the spring that the average days on market was something like 5 days, not sure what it is now. And that is generally for a piece of crap. I guess when money is "almost free" to borrow, you think you can buy a lot of house. I'm such an idiot. We have paid cash for our houses here. Maybe should have locked in a bazillion year fixed rate and played with "house" money instead. 

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My cousin is a real estate agent in Philly. He just sold a house for $967,000 in Mt. Airy. 

Mt. Airy is the neighborhood where I practically grew up. All my cousins lived in Mt. Airy, about 3-4 miles from my house in the burbs. I usually spent about 3 days a week hanging out at their houses. I identify with that neighborhood more than the one I grew up in. It's my hood.

As recently as the early 1970s, you could buy a row house in Mt. Airy for $13,000. By the 1980s they were around 30-35k. Free standing houses went for about 10k more.  

OK, so this was a big, brand new house, in a quiet leafy part of the neighborhood that was close to Germantown where prices were even lower. That was a rough neighborhood back them. 

I guess it is gentrifying more than I had realized the last time I was home in 2018. It's happening all over Philly. What had been really, really bad neighborhoods, hopelessly bad, are gentrifying.  A house you could have bought all day for 40k in 1990, now costs 967k. 

A nice, but ordinary neighborhood in Philly, the lowest cost big city in the East. The poorest big city in the entire US of A. 

Virtually a million bucks. 

I can't wrap my head around this. 

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When I tried to opine that she shouldn't be celebrating housing inflation of 20% any more than she should celebrate the cost of butter, cars, or guns going up 20%, I just got a 1000-yard stare from my realtor daughter. I gave up awhile ago. After all, "this time it's different", "inventories will always be low", "everyone needs a place to live", and "everyone is moving here from California". As if that's a good thing (but Stoolie Californians are of course welcome here). And, to her credit, she has been far more correct than I have thus far. Heck, maybe it is different this time. 

I think you have the right idea, Lee. Eastern Europe is starting to appeal to me greatly, or maybe Southeast Asia. Latin America has some amazing spots as well. Friend of mine lived in Prague for a couple of years. Absolutely loved it, except for the winters. 

Off to try to pick up a few pennies in front of today's steamroller. See y'all tomorrow. 

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