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Just for Laughs 7/22/21

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Here's a weekly chart of the S&P 500 over the past 15 months. Perfectly normal.

tvc_1d2211a173c54f8d4ad88ebffd47ba6c.png

When we look at the hourly bars, we almost get the idea that it's a normal market that goes down as well as up. 

tvc_90786838d4481cff47d0d45969c98f35.png

But we know that it's not. The 5 day cycle projection now looks around 4405. The Dealers shook the tree on Friday and Monday to cover their shorts and pick up some low hanging fruit inventory for the current runup. 

If they break through 4483, then the current pattern would have a conventional measured move target of 4540 or fight. 

Fed MBS settlement week is now done. The Fed pumped $123 billion into dealer trading accounts. I suspect that most of that cash has been spent. The Treasury pumped in another $40 billion in T-bill paydowns on Tuesday, with another $8 billion on the way today. "Only" $8 billion.

The debt ceiling comes back on 7/31. Watch out for that. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2021/07/19/heres-what-the-treasury-buying-stampede-really-means/

Meanwhile, as for the longer term stock market technical outlook - Here’s What Friday’s Selloff Means for Our Future

If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.  

If you're interested in following the photo journal of my European wanderings, including latest shots from Warsaw, a dynamic, un-Europe-like city, check out my Instagram page

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I don't know. I was just eating a pack of pickled herring smothered in chopped onion in oil that I bought at the convenience store downstairs for 75 cents, with sesame poppy rye toast that I got at a bakery in the Hala Mirowska next door for about $1.20. With food like this available whenever I want, who cares what the stock market is doing. 

  

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I don't know. I was just eating a pack of pickled herring smothered in chopped onion in oil that I bought at the convenience store downstairs for 75 cents, with sesame poppy rye toast that I got at a bakery in the Hala Mirowska next door for about $1.20. With food like this available whenever I want, who cares what the stock market is doing. 

  

one of the few thing's a bear does get to enjoy......

1,000 Kilometers from the Coast, Bears Gorge on Ocean Fish | Hakai Magazine

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In general the bread in Eastern Europe is in many ways even better than French bread because there are so many different types of bread, and all are wonderful. 

 

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The experience of being in Warsaw has been at times emotionally overwhelming. 

Tomorrow, I'm going to the town where my grandfather lived before emigrating to America, to see if perhaps I can find the graves of my great grandparents, who died there. This would have been pre 1900. The Nazis destroyed the Jewish cemeteries, but some Jews were buried in the cemetery at the Catholic Church. There was heavy fighting between the Germans and the Russians, and the town was 90% destroyed.    Long odds, but we'll see. 

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1 minute ago, potatohead said:

great interview. Just gave a shout out on twitter.

I saw that, and was going to say something about you being the Liquidity Trader Director of Marketing. 😁😁😁 

Really, can't thank you enough! 

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