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Old Bull Markets Never Die, They Just Fade ...

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Away? No, but they do slow down in their old age. 

And god this is getting old. 

They found the trendline from the June 20 low yesterday. Broke it slightly. Also slightly broke the 5 day cycle projection. I said then that I expected a rapid rebound. 

This market is nothing, if not predictable. You want to fight the Fed, fight the tape? Be my guest.  I'm sick of this too, but I respect it. They are still in control.

One day, in the not too distant future, they won't be. The market will tell us when that day has come. It's not today. I don't think. But WTF do I know. 

Here's a 2 hour bar chart for perspective on today's likely action. 



Zooming in to one hour bars, we see trend resistance around 4361 at 7 AM in NY. If they get through that, the 2-3 day cycle projection would point to 4380. 


Find the extended outlook at Liquidity Trader. 

Where The End Stage Rally is Headed

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If your interested in following my photo journal, my latest shots from Warsaw, a dynamic, un-Europe-like city, are on my Instagram page


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The 2-3 day cycle projection points to 4398. The measured move objective of a reverse head and shoulders breakout points to 4388, and it would go to 4410 on clearing 4370. The 30 minute bars show it nicely. 




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3 hours ago, MisFit Kid said:

any flooding where you are at, Doc?

Looking bad in parts of Germany-Belgium areas........

Find Noah just in case......

Not here. Just minor street flooding. Nothing major. But the pictures are horrifying. I was in the part of Belgium that got hit, a few years ago.

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I was out and about all afternoon and evening. This evening, I was wandering around central Warsaw where I'm staying. It is the area of the old Jewish Ghetto. I came upon a restored synagogue where a minyan of Chassidic Jewish men were doing Friday night Sabbath prayers. 

My grandparents came from this area 43 years earlier. 

On April 19, 1943, the Warsaw Ghetto uprising began. It lasted about 3 weeks. The Germans slaughtered 13,000 Jews during those weeks, and burnt the ghetto to the ground block by block. The remaining 30,000 were sent to their deaths in the concentration camps. 

I could feel the ghosts all around me.

I'm not a religious man. In fact, I'm an atheist. I learned the prayers as a kid. I still remember most of them, or at least parts of most of them. To see that Judaism lives on in this place where so many were butchered, moved me. It was very emotional. 

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It is our duty to praise the Master of all, to acclaim the
greatness of the One
who forms all creation. For God did not make us
like the nations of other
lands, and did not make us the same as other
families of the Earth. God did
not place us in the same situations as others, and
our destiny is not the same
as anyone else's.
And we bend our knees, and bow down, and give
thanks, before the Ruler,
the Ruler of Rulers, the Holy One, Blessed is God.
The One who spread out the heavens, and made the
foundations of the Earth,
and whose precious dwelling is in the heavens
above, and whose powerful
Presence is in the highest heights. Adonai is our
God, there is none else.
Our God is truth, and nothing else compares. As
is written in Your
Torah: "And you shall know today, and take to
heart, that Adonai is the only
God, in the heavens above and on Earth below.
There is no other."
Therefore we put our hope in You, Adonai our God,
to soon see the glory of
Your strength, to remove all idols from the Earth,
and to completely cut off
all false gods; to repair the world, Your holy
empire. And for all living flesh
to call Your name, and for all the wicked of the
Earth to turn to You. May all
the world's inhabitants recognize and know that to
You every knee must
bend and every tongue must swear loyalty. Before
You, Adonai, our God,
may all bow down, and give honor to Your precious
name, and may all take
upon themselves the yoke of Your rule. And may
reign over them soon
and forever and always. Because all rule is Yours
alone, and You will rule
in honor forever and ever.
As it is written in Your Torah:
"Adonai will reign forever and ever."
And it is said: "Adonai will be Ruler over the
whole Earth, and on that day,
God will be One, and God's name will be One.

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Its worried that the collapse of the long bond end will feed into and infect the short duration bond space.

Thats why it started some hawkish talk.

Therefore the current meme: "Interest rate rises not now but sometime in the "distant future."

A deliberately schrodingian meme desgined to soothe the bond market herd and stop any possible stampede of the bond herd out of the slaughteryard pen. 

Its a disposable meme that will be dispensed with when it has serves its purpose.

Anybody notice how the J number term I invented is a pun on the first name of the chair of a certain central bank?

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14 hours ago, BurntOnce said:

It is our duty to praise the Master of all, to acclaim the
greatness of the One...

Didn't recognize the English. But I still remember most of the Aleinu in Hebrew. If you put me inside a synagogue during prayers, I could sing along. The words come back. The melody is always there. It's the connection with a few thousand years of history that I find moving.  

But then I think of a few thousand years in the context of the eternal nature of the cosmological universe, along with the fact that the human race came into existence and will pass out of existence in a flash. Context both diminishes and magnifies the meaningfulness of our presence. 

To live means to be conscious, to process and absorb to the fullest whatever it is that gives us joy. I think that is the key to a fulfilling life. Because we have absolutely no control over what goes on outside of our own mind, past, present, or future.

In fact, if I understand correctly, quantum mechanics argues that nothing exists without us being there to observe it.

I well understand that principle from having published this website for nearly 21 years. 



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