DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 The ES futures and the broad US market keep churning a little higher day by day. It's a weak uptrend, locked within a couple of narrow rising channels at various angles, from almost flat, to rising at about 10 points per day, woop de doo. The most important trendline to watch is, I believe, the one running from about 4270 as of 5 AM in NY, to about 4280 at the New York close. The trend will remain intact if they can't break below that. The first line of resistance I'd be worried about runs from about 4280 now to around 4290 at the closing bell. If they get through that, then the measured move objective of the base breakout of 4315 or 4350 would both become possible, with the lower target probable. The top of a growing megaphone pattern is currently around 4290. If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Meanwhile, End Stage Rally Now The Balance Begins To Shift Gold Needs A Bounce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 30 minute bars nicely show how momentum has steadily faded over the past 5 days. Looks poised for a plunge. End of month Treasury supply could turn the trick. Watch the 10 year yield. It will tell whether supply pressure matters as the Treasury begins cutting back on T-bill paydowns. Janet is giving the market $25 billion today, but after this, that help should dry up. Things could get ugly. Get the whole story, and every episode of this ongoing soap opera. You'll see it coming. Now The Balance Begins To Shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted June 29, 2021 Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 A SIMPLE SOLUTION TO INFLATION Simple. Abolish the FED and set up a currency board with the Swiss Franc as legal tender. Simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 2-3 day cycle projection 4300-4305 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 The upper line of the megaphone is at 4290. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted June 29, 2021 Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 THE GREAT CURVE INANITY Current false narrative "The FED is behind the curve on inflation" Reality: The FED is always ahead of the curve on inflation because it creates it.................... Inflating the money supply is a deliberate and concious act of the Fed. The FED then pretends to be behind the curve on inflation. So it does not get blamed for the inflation. This is blame shifting methodology 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted June 29, 2021 Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 13 minutes ago, Jimbo said: THE GREAT CURVE INANITY This is blame shifting methodology 101. BS methodology 101 I reckon so........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 The question is, why are you awake at 2:15 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 Treasury announced another $25 billion in T-bill paydowns for next week, July 6. They've reduced the pace. We're getting very close to the end of this. The paydowns will stop and the RRP outstanding will reverse and start declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted June 29, 2021 Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, DrStool said: Treasury announced another $25 billion in T-bill paydowns for next week, July 6. They've reduced the pace. We're getting very close to the end of this. The paydowns will stop and the RRP outstanding will reverse and start declining. seems like they are timing this for quarter end, coincidence ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 1 hour ago, potatohead said: seems like they are timing this for quarter end, coincidence ? It's weekly. Same day every week. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press_cashpydwn.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 Bills are announced Tuesday's and Thursday's. They've adjusted the schedule a little but the end result is the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 Hot stove touch of upper line of megaphone, and pull back right on bot schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2021 Good Nytol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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