PullMyFinger Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 YM's viagra starting to wear off. Has given up almost 50% of entire move up that started in the overnight session. Better pop another little blue pill, stat. Let's see if the channel midpoint line holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said: Maybe it is budget trickery to justify, well, something? Would they really make a tax rate increase retroactive? It's a good idear. Too late to sell now. Can you imagine what would happen if they make the effective date in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, DrStool said: Comments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 Lee, the conversation the other day on twitter, one of the individuals mentioned money market funds could not do RRP. just saw the following from Chris Whalen. "Reverse repo counterparties list updated: T. Rowe Price Treasury Reserve Fund, Vanguard Admiral Funds, Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 In keeping with the Zep theme, if there is a bustle in the hedgerow in the markets this summer, I just don't know how it amounts to all that much. Might even start next month for a couple of months. If we get a decent decline, maybe shave 4 or 5 thousand off the Dow over a couple of months, and rough equivalent on the S&P? I would love to be really, really wrong, which is per my usual. But I just don't see a giant decline in Dow or S&P. Maybe NAS takes more of a punch. We are living in interesting times, that's for sure. That's why I'm a subscriber. I count on you to find the manure in a pile of ponies. 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, potatohead said: Lee, the conversation the other day on twitter, one of the individuals mentioned money market funds could not do RRP. just saw the following from Chris Whalen. "Reverse repo counterparties list updated: T. Rowe Price Treasury Reserve Fund, Vanguard Admiral Funds, Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund" The counterparties for the RRPs include Primary Dealers, banks, and money market funds. I noted that one of the people in your conversation said that only MMFs were participating. That's just false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_counterparties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 MMFs have been included since the program was instituted in 2013. They were among the primary intended targets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said: Might even start next month for a couple of months. If we get a decent decline, maybe shave 4 or 5 thousa 6 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said: In keeping with the Zep theme, if there is a bustle in the hedgerow in the markets this summer, I just don't know how it amounts to all that much. Might even start next month for a couple of months. If we get a decent decline, maybe shave 4 or 5 thousand off the Dow over a couple of months, and rough equivalent on the S&P? I would love to be really, really wrong, which is per my usual. But I just don't see a giant decline in Dow or S&P. Maybe NAS takes more of a punch. We are living in interesting times, that's for sure. That's why I'm a subscriber. I count on you to find the manure in a pile of ponies. 🙂 My analysis and conclusion could be wrong. Perhaps the dealers are not at risk in the Treasury market because they have adequately hedged and diversified their extreme leverage. Historically that hasn't been the case when past crunches arose from their malfeasance, but maybe this time is different. I also have observed that the Fed's rescue operation last year required 3 trillion right away, and it almost didn't work. The kept increasing the money into it until it did. Do we get the same response next time? Better? Worse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 It's a beautiful evening. Gonna take a walk. 2 days ago at the point of the peninsula. View this post on Instagram A post shared by Lee Adler (@200daysineurope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 22 minutes ago, DrStool said: My analysis and conclusion could be wrong. Perhaps the dealers are not at risk in the Treasury market because they have adequately hedged and diversified their extreme leverage. Historically that hasn't been the case when past crunches arose from their malfeasance, but maybe this time is different. I also have observed that the Fed's rescue operation last year required 3 trillion right away, and it almost didn't work. The kept increasing the money into it until it did. Do we get the same response next time? Better? Worse? Again, it won't shock me if I'm wrong. The Seinfeld episode where George starts doing the opposite resonates with me for good reason. Crashes are pretty rare events. I think "they", whoever they are, will do whatever they gotta do to keep the "con"fidence game going when the crunch comes. It's what they do. I guess something works until it doesn't and maybe I'm way too conditioned and complacent. The world was ending in 2001, and 2003, and 2009, and 2020, and about a zillion other times over the last few decades. And yes, one of these days, Alice, one of these days . . . bang, zoom. Based on your analysis, we know the "what". And based on your recent reports, we likely know the "when". I expect you to be correct in your analysis, and on the timing. I guess my issue is tied more to stock market performance and how much decline we see. So, maybe where I part company somewhat is not in the what, not in the when, but in the "how much". Maybe my confidence in their ability to both screw it up epically and then paper it over to keep the confidence game going is wildly misplaced. Wouldn't be the first time I was way off. And maybe my view is just way too myopically stock market centered and does not take into account enough bond market considerations. I'm still trying to get the hang of Liquidity Trader. I'm learning, but probably way too slowly. Just my $.02. Gorgeous pic--enjoy the walk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MisFit Kid Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 Buying a Stairway to Heaven with Fed Bucks........or is that just A Whole Lotta Love....... I guess Crypto Bucks will buy their own stairway, too......... or is that just Dazed and Confused..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted May 27, 2021 Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 25 minutes ago, DrStool said: My analysis and conclusion could be wrong. Perhaps the dealers are not at risk in the Treasury market because they have adequately hedged and diversified their extreme leverage. Historically that hasn't been the case when past crunches arose from their malfeasance, but maybe this time is different. I also have observed that the Fed's rescue operation last year required 3 trillion right away, and it almost didn't work. The kept increasing the money into it until it did. Do we get the same response next time? Better? Worse? with that said....this just came out... US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: THE BIDEN BUDGET ASSUMES THAT INTEREST RATES WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO LOWER AND MORE NATURAL LEVELS. What was that saying when you assume something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 27, 2021 Author Report Share Posted May 27, 2021 Lower than zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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