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Panic Sets In! It's Over 4/9/23

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When I first opened my intraday chart today I saw this and thought, "Oh mygawd. It's over."

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Knowing that I had left massive long positions in my trading account overnight, I immediately went into atrial fibrillation and started having chest pains. I chewed 6 aspirin, grabbed my English-Croatian reverse dictionary, and got ready to call 112, which is the European number to call in an emergency. 

But I collected myself, saying ok, Lee, Breathe. It's 3 positions totaling less than $10,000.  We can handle a loss on 10% account exposure, on a 0.63% move. Let's see, that's .000063 of my account right? I don't know, I'm not good with decimals. When I started in the business they quoted prices in eighths. 

Besides, this isn't even the whole chart. So click the key to refresh the chart and relax. And in my usual calm, self contained, stoicism I said to myself, "See, asshole! You panicked for nothing! You managed your risk so that it doesn't manage you. So calm down and take a nerve pill. Idiot. Jackass. " 

And then, after all that, and bleeding from the rectum from eating so many aspirin,  it finally dawned in me that that was an old chart that was stuck in my browser cache.  

After my refresh, I saw this. 
tvc_1bb05e5375a48a376b8956cca6efe71e.png

 

I must admit that the current rally bears a remarkable similarity to the rally off the March 4 low. Does that mean a pullback is guaranteed at this point? No, but it doesn't matter. I trade based on my extraordinarily low level of chicken shit risk tolerance. I'll set my automatic sell orders based on trigger mechanisms that give me the best odds of getting a good price, whether it's a small loss, small gain, or maybe keeps me in as long as these 3 plays trend higher, or at least one of them. 

There have even been a few shorts come up in the screens to use as hedges. I'll post today's screen momentarily below. 

Now, there is a moral to this story. You may be wondering, "What is that, Lee?" OK, you probably aren't wondering, but I will tell you anyway. 

If you think you are having a heart attack, and you chew 6 aspirin, always make sure that they are low dose aspirin, and not the full 325 mg. That's the lesson. 

Oh, and always carry them in your purse or wallet. The time may come when you need them to save your life. It happened to me 5 years ago (almost- April 29, 2016), and I would not be here today, if not for those little aspirin tablets I chewed that day. Do it for you. Do it for your kids. Do it for me, ok? I need your business. 

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Stock Market Says, Here Comes the Judge, All Rise

 

Gold – Finally Some Good News

 

Stimmy Gonna Leave Its Mark… In Bond Trader’s Underwear

 
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Today's Screen Game was a virtual tie. There were 30 buy signals and 31 sell signals. But one of the sell signals was an inverse ETF, so it counts as a buy. On the other hand it was a gold miners ETF. Since that sector is often countercyclical to the broad market, it's kind of a bearish signal for the market. Upon video instant replay review, I'm going to split that and call it a tie. Therefore the final score is 30.5 to 30.5. 

The bears are making a showing. They had won yesterday's screen by 23 to 8. They didn't win today, but they had more signals. Chances are, the market will stay dull and rangebound for the next few days.  There definitely aren't enough sell signals here to suggest a downside reversal, but the 155 buy signals from March 28 seem to have mostly spent their initial momentum. 

Here is today's  output. 

This is raw data. These are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
ALB 1 0 0 0 1 0
ALXN.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
AZN.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BLNK.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BWA 1 0 0 0 0 1
COOP.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
EWH 1 0 0 0 0 1
FCEL.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
FEYE.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
FOXA.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
FUBO.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
GLD 1 0 0 0 0 1
GLDM.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
IAU 1 0 0 0 0 1
IWM 1 0 0 0 0 1
LAC 1 0 0 0 1 0
M 1 0 0 0 0 1
NTES.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
ORBC.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PACB.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PLL.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PVG 1 0 0 0 1 0
RLGY.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SGOL.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SSRM.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TCOM.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
UMC 1 0 0 0 0 1
VIAC.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
VTEB.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
ZTS 1 0 0 0 0 1
ANGL.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
BKR 0 1 0 0 1 0
CGC.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
CLR 0 1 0 0 0 1
COG 0 1 0 0 0 1
COP 0 1 0 0 0 1
DUST.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
ENDP.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
ERX 0 1 0 0 0 1
ETRN.K 0 1 0 1 0 0
EVRG.K 0 1 1 0 0 0
EW 0 1 0 0 1 0
FENY.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
FTI 0 1 0 0 1 0
GNTX.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
HFC 0 1 0 0 0 1
IRWD.O 0 1 1 1 0 0
IYE 0 1 0 0 0 1
KMI 0 1 1 0 0 0
LYB 0 1 0 0 0 1
MPC 0 1 0 0 0 1
PBF 0 1 0 0 0 1
SAIL.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
SRE 0 1 1 0 0 0
SUNW.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
VDE 0 1 0 0 0 1
VZ 0 1 0 1 0 0
WBT 0 1 0 0 0 1
XLE 0 1 0 0 0 1
XOM 0 1 0 0 0 1
XOP 0 1 0 0 0 1
Totals 30 31 4 5 13 40

It is normal for new signals to diminish as a trend progresses, simply because so many stocks have already triggered. The remaining universe of stocks that have not recently triggered buy signals is shrinking. It also means that the risk reward ratio is becoming gradually less favorable. Obviously the risk/reward is most favorable in the initial day or two of the upturn.  

These signals ideally have a time horizon of 1-4 weeks.  

The last 4 columns are for the time frame of the support or resistance line around which the signals were triggered.

Ignore the .O and .K These are peculiar to Reuters data. 

I initially screen 9000 NYSE and NADSACS issues for stocks that have been trading more than 1 million shares per day and are trading above $6. There are normally between 30 and 100 results, depending on where we are in the cycle. There are more signals at cyclical turning points and fewer as a move progresses. Monday looked like a significant turning point. Fool me once, shame on you, Mr. Market. 

I use these screens to pick stocks for my ready list for my personal trading, and also for my weekly swing trade chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers.

I developed the algorithm to hunt for stocks that looked primed to have a good move, ideally over a period of 4 weeks. In practice they range from 1 week to 7 weeks. I consider the move finished when they break trend support, using the indicators from which the screen program is constructed. 

From the screen output I visually review the charts. I make my picks from that review.

There are usually between 2 and 8 good looking setups every day. The numbers are bigger around intermediate term turning points. 

Stock Market Says, Here Comes the Judge, All Rise

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Zooming in to 30 minute bars on the ES, we see the channels bent, not broken. There are currently no projections on the 5 day or 2-3 day cycles. We're in a flat down phase here nearing 8 AM in New Yak. 2 PM in Your Rope. 

tvc_520ef168f0ddff6be3d5a2ae7e7b6b60.png

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Interesting that they're selling bonds and stocks concurrently. A tiny taste of what's to come in a few months. 

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THE GAME RIGHT NOW

The game right now seems to be trying to short squeeze the shorts out of their positions

How many other hedge funds are playing the Archegos game.

Using total return swaps to disguise their positions.

Using 10 to 1 leverage provided by the banks to provide the power for the "pump engine".

Coasting on the inflationary gift of negative real rates provided by the FED.

A gift that the FED is in the process of ramping up.

This is what I call a "Frame congruent game".

i.e, the game is favoured by the frame forces.

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13 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

I'm so sorry Lee! I'm sending you early morning sunshine from the SF Bay area!

What are you sorry for? 😀

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Here today it is sunny and 58 degrees. We'll get into the 60s persistently next week. The weather changes quite gradually here on the Adriatic. After mid February the winter rains stopped, and it has been sunny almost every day. It will be that way until November.  The rainy winter thing just started a couple years ago.  

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If I'm still in Croatia next winter, I think I'll spend it in Zagreb instead of here. But I hope to be in Nice by then. 

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