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Second Attempt at Prison Breakout 4/1/21

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If at first you don't suck, cede, then try, try again. 

You do realize don't you, that this "top" will become a massive reverse head and shoulders saucer bottom, if they break out, right? 

tvc_c0f0f25537a4caec8afaadbb39ced86f.png

But don't get too excited yet. The 2-3 day cycle projection is only 3987. 

5 day is unclear, but if they stick around up here for a few hours, then we'd be looking at 4018. 

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I want to add a few more personal thoughts about the Ukraine situation, since it is in the news, and since we've seen some Russian anti-Biden propaganda on it.  As you know, I am not a geopolitic

So I have been looking recently to add other markets to follow and possibly trade from time to time in addition to ES, NQ and YM. I decided soybeans might be good, since they were one of W.D. Gann's favorite commodities to trade. Hey, if it was good enough for Gann, it is good enough for us mere mortals, right? A far wiser trader than me said "Finger, whatever you do, don't ever, ever trade on WASDE  or USDA NASS report days. They are like Fed Reserve announcement days, but often worse." 

Well, it was NASS day yesterday. It takes a pretty finely tuned and critical eye, honed over many years of staring aimlessly at charts to see what time the NASS report came out yesterday. However, if you look long and hard enough at the chart, you might be able to discern approximately what time the report was released. 

Some of the best advice I ever received right there. Some days, you just stay out of the water because there are sharks and riptides are just waiting for you. 

Screen Shot 2021-04-01 at 4.47.09 AM.png

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This is raw data. They are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. Feel free to post your charts here with comments. 

Today's box score, 66 -11, Bulls win. There were 64 buy signals and 13 sell signals. 2 of the sell signals were inverse ETFs. This is follow through from last weekend's screen when there were 155 buy signals. That was the driver, despite the hiccup of the past 3 days. 

These signals ideally have a time horizon of 1-4 weeks.  

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
ADBE.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PLAN.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
AM 1 0 0 0 0 1
AAPL.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
ARDX.O 1 0 1 1 0 0
HOME.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TEAM.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
BZUN.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
BHC 1 0 0 0 0 1
BGFV.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BLNK.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
CCJ 1 0 0 0 0 1
CVNA.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
CTXS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
XLY 1 0 0 0 0 1
CREE.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
CRSP.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
EURN.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
AQUA.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
EXEL.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
FSR 1 0 0 0 1 0
FCEL.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
GLPI.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
HEXO.K 1 0 1 0 0 0
NTLA.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ICE 1 0 0 0 0 1
INTU.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
IOVA.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
IRDM.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
SOXX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
KWEB.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
LSCC.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
MMP 1 0 0 0 1 0
MRVL.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
MCHP.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
NEO.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
NTES.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
NFLX.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
NEE 1 0 0 1 0 0
NIO 1 0 0 1 0 0
NIU.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
NTNX.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
ON.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PLNT.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
QLD 1 0 0 0 1 0
TQQQ.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
RIOT.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SAND.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SHOP.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
SONO.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
CWB 1 0 0 0 1 0
XBI 1 0 0 1 0 0
SPWR.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
TMUS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TAL 1 0 1 0 0 0
TGTX.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
TWST.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
SLCA.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
GDX 1 0 1 0 0 0
VRT 1 0 0 0 1 0
WW.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
XRX 1 0 0 0 0 1
YETI.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
YUMC.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
AZN.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
BDX 0 1 0 0 1 0
LABD.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
TECS.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
HDB 0 1 0 0 0 1
USIG.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
K 0 1 1 1 0 0
LW 0 1 0 0 0 1
MKC 0 1 0 1 1 0
PKI 0 1 0 1 0 0
PG 0 1 0 1 0 0
TJX 0 1 0 0 1 0
VZ 0 1 0 1 0 0
  Totals 64 13      

 

I initially screen 9000 NYSE and NADSACS issues for stocks that have been trading more than 1 million shares per day and are trading above $6. There are normally between 30 and 100 results, depending on where we are in the cycle. There are more signals at cyclical turning points and fewer as a move progresses. Monday looked like a significant turning point. Fool me once, shame on you, Mr. Market. 

I use these screens to pick stocks for my ready list for my personal trading, and also for my weekly swing trade chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers.

I developed the algorithm to hunt for stocks that looked primed to have a good move, ideally over a period of 4 weeks. In practice they range from 1 week to 7 weeks. I consider the move finished when they break trend support, using the indicators from which the screen program is constructed. 

From the screen output I visually review the charts. I make my picks from that review.

There are usually between 2 and 8 good looking setups every day. The numbers are bigger around intermediate term turning points. 

 

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17 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

So I have been looking recently to add other markets to follow and possibly trade from time to time in addition to ES, NQ and YM. I decided soybeans might be good, since they were one of W.D. Gann's favorite commodities to trade. Hey, if it was good enough for Gann, it is good enough for us mere mortals, right? A far wiser trader than me said "Finger, whatever you do, don't ever, ever trade on WASDE  or USDA NASS report days. They are like Fed Reserve announcement days, but often worse." 

Well, it was NASS day yesterday. It takes a pretty finely tuned and critical eye, honed over many years of staring aimlessly at charts to see what time the NASS report came out yesterday. However, if you look long and hard enough at the chart, you might be able to discern approximately what time the report was released. 

Some of the best advice I ever received right there. Some days, you just stay out of the water because there are sharks and riptides are just waiting for you. 

Screen Shot 2021-04-01 at 4.47.09 AM.png

It's a little too subtle for me. Where do you see anything unusual. 

And WTF is a WASDE of a NASS? 

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Here's a sample chart from today's list. I picked it because it was interesting. This is not a recommendation. It's pretty clear what it needs to do to signal something worthwhile. 

image.png

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I'm a NASS man, myself. You? 

NASS is the gub'mint doing it's thing. More acronyms than Carters has pills. NASS is USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. WASDE is World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Now you know why Randolph and Mortimer Duke were trying to use Clarence Beeks to get the crop reports ahead of time in Trading Places. 🙂

And yes, like you I'm a NASS man too, but I just had a flash of Jamie Lee Curtis in that movie. Her other assets were a great comfort to me in my college years as well. 

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Interesting stuff! We should pay more attention to Ags. 

Speaking of, might there finally be some good news ahead for goldbugs? 

image.png

This is apparently a yooge long term support level. If it goes south, abandon hope, all ye who enter here.  

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What do they call it once you hear or see something once, it registers, then the same thing is everywhere you look or go? Is it the reticular activating system? Whatever. Today it's inflation. 

So, to further being a one-note Johnny, I just noticed Marty Armstrong has a piece today about looming food shortages in Europe. He has been predicting a wave of inflation going into 2024 for quite some time now. Crap. Now I'm going to see gloom, despair and agony about food costs everywhere I look. 

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7 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

My household has recognized supermarket prices increasing - everything from vegetables to beer.  Beef prices can be almost double from last year depending on cut of meat.  The only thing I do not see increasing is chicken. No idea why.

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