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Whither yon Stool? 3/30/21

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The size of the Fed's balance sheet needs to be viewed in relation to supply of and demand for financial assets. That's the issue for us. The price of financial assets. The US Treasury creates so

I love Metastock. I've used it for 39 years! I started with it when I was a salesman/anal cyst with Herzfeld and Stern back in 1982.  

I had a market letter with them that I called Marketrac . Back then it was tres chi chi to drop the k after the c.  I have no idea why.  Maybe I did it because I didn't want it to look like Market Rac

NQ seems to continue to say long above 12812 and short below 12968 for now until further notice, I guess. How many touches before it cracks in one direction or the other?

One could take off 50% of position each time at midway point around 12890 for basically a risk free trade. Not a big fan of that last candle that closed a bit below the trend line, though. We shall see. 

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28 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Meat grinder

Same here. Sixty-six of the last 69 hourly NQ candles have been "trendless" (black), and a bunch of ABC's dating back to 3/22 rather than 5 wave patterns. Only 2 green candles and one red in that 69 bar period. I have been using this software a long time and I can't remember the last time it didn't show a trend for this long. Pretty much just making 2/8 and 3/8ths moves inside that frame.

  

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Lee

curious if you follow @gamesblazer06 on twitter

He had some interesting calls that tend to put a different spin on the banking system and strength of primary dealers/banks. This is a thread. Curious on your thoughts.

 

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24 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

Same here. Sixty-six of the last 69 hourly NQ candles have been "trendless" (black), and a bunch of ABC's dating back to 3/22 rather than 5 wave patterns. Only 2 green candles and one red in that 69 bar period. I have been using this software a long time and I can't remember the last time it didn't show a trend for this long. Pretty much just making 2/8 and 3/8ths moves inside that frame.

  

Screen Shot 2021-03-30 at 12.20.50 PM.png

What software is it? 

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25 minutes ago, potatohead said:

Lee

curious if you follow @gamesblazer06 on twitter

He had some interesting calls that tend to put a different spin on the banking system and strength of primary dealers/banks. This is a thread. Curious on your thoughts.

 

Sorry  I don't. I looked at his feed. Unfortunately, I don't understand the jargon, so I am not sure where he's going with this. 

He seems fixated on RRP. I see that there's an end of quarter surge here after the Treasury pumped $300 billion cash into the market, with recipients having no place to put it.  So there's a window dressing pop on March 30-31. It will disappear on April 1 after the Treasury settles $148 billion in net new coupon issuance. 

He seems to think this is significant. I don't. In my mind there's zero effective difference between a bank or MMF or dealer holding cash in a Fed deposit account or overnight RRP. It's all liquid money, despite the pretense that RRPs aren't in the monetary base stats. 

Modern day bond guys have their own lingo. I'm not up with it. 

In terms of the big picture, we're headed for D-Day, when the system runs out of money, and we know when it will be. 

Do you have a take on what he's saying. I might be able to answer better. 

 

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He's right about the buildup of the $1.6 trillion peak Treasury cash as being effective draining operation. I've covered that. But now it's going in reverse fast. That's why we're heading for an absolutely massive crunch. The Treasury will be out of money and will still have another trillion in stimmy spending to disburse. They'll have to borrow that. 

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