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Play Ball! Stock Market Swings For the Fences in Season Opener

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I'm running way late this morning. We just started daylight savings time here in Europe this weekend, and I overschlepped. So I'll just start with this and get back to you shortly.

Friday’s rally appears to support that we’re in the early days of a 6 month cycle up phase. We have been expecting it in this time window.  Ditto for the 10-12 month cycle, which has been trending anyway. Those two cycles should now be in gear to the upside for a few months. This would normally cause shorter cycles to resync from that low, and also to have extended uplegs.

This weekend’s screens of some 9000 listed stocks generated a whopping 163 short term signals from key levels. An equally impressive 155 were on the buy side. Furthermore, three of the sell signals were on inverse ETFs. Therefore 158 signals were bullish. Only 5 were bearish. This suggests a big turn with lots of thrust. It’s consistent with a 6 month cycle upturn.

But I was underwhelmed when I viewed those charts. Most were ambiguous. This doesn’t give me enough to conclude that we’re going to have a sustained power move.

From my visual review, I chose 8 charts which appeared to have good potential for a decent sized swing move. All were buys. If this works out as it should, we’ll get 2 or 3 runners from this group while the rest have small gains or small losses.

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These reports are not investment advice. They are for informational purposes, intended for an audience of investment and trading professionals, and other experienced investors and traders. Chart pick performance changes week to week and past performance may not indicate future results, as you know. Trading involves risk, and these reports assume that you understand those risks and manage them according to your tolerance. 

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If it can break 12812 with some authority, perhaps today's program will be brought to you by the letter M?

Was Friday's surge a breakout? Nope. They fell 10 points short on the S&P fucutures. But first comes the cup. Then comes the handle, maybe. 

Here's a little perspective from the 2 hour bars. 

tvc_081c46949f18a983f0678ff48293dd66.png
Click to engorge.

The uptrend from Turdsday's low is still intact as seen on the hourly chart. If New York drops below 3944 in the first hour, that would break it. However, there's a 5 day cycle projection of 3992 still hanging out there. If the ES clears 3955, I think there's a good shot at that today. 

tvc_842865adfb6e5a9f4707513747bae8e6.png

 

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Here's the raw stock screen output from Friday's action. I wrote in the Technical Trader report, that the total numbers and the number of buy signals were impressive. But the charts themselves weren't. I only could find 8 that I was comfortable with for swing trades. I published those in that report

This is raw data. They are not recommendations. They represent charts that have triggered short term signals near key cyclical support or resistance levels. Pick through these and see if there are any that you like from your own charts. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
APD 1 0 0 0 1 0
ATI 1 0 0 0 0 1
AMLP.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
ACC 1 0 0 0 0 1
AMT 1 0 0 0 1 0
AMKR.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
APH 1 0 0 0 1 1
AM 1 0 0 0 0 1
AR 1 0 0 0 0 1
ARCC.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TEAM.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
BW 1 0 0 0 0 1
BJ 1 0 0 0 0 1
BSX 1 0 0 1 0 0
BDN 1 0 1 0 0 0
BRO 1 0 0 1 0 1
BLDR.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BG 1 0 0 0 0 1
COG 1 0 0 0 0 1
CADE.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
CHRW.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
CC 1 0 0 0 1 1
CFG 1 0 0 0 0 1
CMS 0 1 1 1 0 0
CNO 1 0 0 0 0 1
CNX 1 0 0 0 0 1
CODX.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
CMA 1 0 0 0 0 1
CNR 1 0 0 0 0 1
CRSP.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
DAN 1 0 0 0 0 1
DAR 1 0 0 0 0 1
DHT 1 0 1 0 0 0
SPDN.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SPXL.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SOXS.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
SOXL.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
DFS 1 0 0 0 0 1
DXC 1 0 0 0 0 1
EMN 1 0 0 0 0 1
ECL 1 0 0 1 0 0
EQNR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
ETRN.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
ESNT.K 1 0 1 1 0 0
EPRT.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
EURN.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
FDX 1 0 0 0 1 0
FNF 1 0 0 0 0 1
FHN 1 0 0 0 0 1
GUNR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
FLIR.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
FLS 1 0 1 0 0 0
GPRE.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
HFC 1 0 1 0 0 1
DBC 1 0 0 0 0 1
DBO 1 0 0 0 0 1
UUP 0 1 0 1 0 0
PDBC.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IVZ 1 0 0 0 0 1
FXI 1 0 0 1 0 0
IVV 1 0 0 0 0 1
IJR 1 0 0 0 0 1
ESGE.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
EFA 1 0 0 0 0 1
SCZ.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
EEM 1 0 0 0 1 0
EWT 1 0 0 0 0 1
EWU 1 0 0 0 0 1
GSG 1 0 0 0 0 1
IJS 1 0 0 0 0 1
JNPR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
KBH 1 0 0 0 0 1
K 1 0 0 0 1 0
KEY 1 0 0 0 0 1
KIM 1 0 0 0 0 1
LEG 1 0 0 0 0 1
LXP 1 0 0 0 0 1
LITE.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
MTB 1 0 0 0 0 1
MMP 1 0 0 0 1 0
MX 1 0 0 0 0 1
MGY 1 0 0 0 0 1
MRO 1 0 0 0 0 1
MPC 1 0 0 0 0 1
MRK 1 0 0 0 0 1
MTG 1 0 0 0 0 1
MNST.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
MPLX.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
MUR 1 0 1 0 0 0
NCR 1 0 0 0 0 1
NWL.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
OXY 1 0 0 0 0 1
OHI 1 0 0 0 1 0
OKE 1 0 1 0 0 0
ORBC.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
PYPL.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
PDCE.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
PFSI.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
PMT 1 0 0 0 0 1
PCG 1 0 1 0 1 1
PSX 1 0 1 0 0 1
PAGP.O 1 0 0 0 1 1
PGR 1 0 0 1 1 0
PUMP.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SH 0 1 0 0 0 1
UCO 1 0 0 0 0 1
SSO 1 0 0 0 0 1
UPRO.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
RL 1 0 0 0 0 1
RRC 1 0 0 0 0 1
RF 1 0 0 0 0 1
REZI.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
ROIC.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
RPAI.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
RHI 1 0 0 0 0 1
ROST.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
RCL 1 0 1 0 0 1
SGMO.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
SLB 1 0 0 0 0 1
SCHE.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
SCHF.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
STX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SCI 1 0 0 0 1 1
SITC.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPDW.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPLG.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPY 1 0 0 0 0 1
XME 1 0 0 0 0 1
SBUX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SUM 1 0 0 0 0 1
SXC 1 0 0 0 0 1
SHO 1 0 0 0 0 1
SYF 1 0 0 0 0 1
SNPS.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
SYY 1 0 0 0 0 1
TSM 1 0 0 0 1 0
TMHC.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
FTI 1 0 0 0 1 0
TEN 1 0 0 0 1 0
TOL 1 0 0 0 0 1
TOT 1 0 0 0 0 1
TRU 1 0 0 1 0 1
TPH 1 0 0 0 0 1
TFC 1 0 0 0 0 1
TTMI.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
UPS 1 0 0 1 0 1
BNO 1 0 0 0 0 1
USO 1 0 0 0 0 1
UNVR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
USFD.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
VEA 1 0 0 0 0 1
VGK 1 0 0 0 0 1
VFC 1 0 0 1 0 0
V 1 0 0 0 1 0
VSH 1 0 0 0 0 1
VMW 1 0 1 0 0 1
WPC 1 0 0 0 1 1
WBT 1 0 0 0 0 1
WY 1 0 0 0 0 1
XSOE.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
WETF.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
XRX 1 0 0 0 0 1
YETI.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
Totals 155 8        

 

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Here's an example of one of my charts that the screens picked out. It's the last one on the list for no particular reason. I just heard that the last shall be first. 

image.png
Click to engorge

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NQ 32M unable to close above the 3/8 line at 12968 so far despite several attempts since Friday's late afternoon surge. Four of the big 6 (AMZN, MSFT, TSLA and GOOG) getting smacked around a bit so far this morning too. 

Screen Shot 2021-03-29 at 8.00.17 AM.png

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23 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

If it can break 12812 with some authority, perhaps today's program will be brought to you by the letter M?

Screen Shot 2021-03-29 at 9.20.40 AM.png

image.jpeg.9ebeb09b1f957f3ba907f4679f89eae4.jpeg

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19 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Lee, my stupid, jaded and cynical question goes to show how I don't completely understand the ramifications of this--why does it seem so many of these seeming disasters over the last 12 years ultimately resulted in the markets resolving themselves in a "non-bearish" fashion after an inevitable initial panic? I'm not fussing at you, but I have heard so many times from so many different places that "this is it, it's the end" over the years that I am probably like the frog that is being boiled in the pot at this point. I realize you didn't say "checkmate, game over", only that perhaps we should worry. 

I guess put another way, why is it different this time? Are "they" really going to let "them" fail if it comes to that? Aren't the criminals always bailed out? I understand the part about Primary Dealers being underwater on leveraged Treasury positions and knee deep in the Archegos excrement. Is it the sheer magnitude and possibility of contagion of this latest disaster on top of an existing one? Or something else?

I know you chronicle this stuff in real time. If the answer is clearly spelled out in the Liquidity Trader, don't give away any proprietary stuff--it's time for me to re-subscribe. I drifted away when I realized so much was over my head. That's not on you, your stuff is brilliant. Probably too brilliant for me. Instead, that's on my inability to readily absorb the material. Actually, I should probably resubscribe anyway in exchange for the bandwidth I waste here during any given day. Your Technical Trader stuff, I understand. Baby steps, I guess.  😀

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Good questions! I do answer most of them in LT. It's all a matter of timing really, and I can't get into it without giving away the store.  

As for stuff being over your head, totally my fault. I've tried to address the problem I create because this is data that I've watched very closely for a very very long time. So I see connections that most people, who are experts at their life's work but not this shit, don't see, any more than I'd understand what you do. 

So I've encouraged subscribers to send me questions.  And I endeavor to answer them in the next report, or sometimes on WSE. It has helped me a lot to see where I'm being too dense and arcane.

There really aren't any dumb questions. But there are dumb assumptions, and I make them all the time. 

Also, I'm worried about everything all the time. 

Going Going Gone- We Now Know When The Party Will End

 

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9 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Good questions! I do answer most of them in LT. It's all a matter of timing really, and I can't get into it without giving away the store.  

As for stuff being over your head, totally my fault. I've tried to address the problem I create because this is data that I've watched very closely for a very very long time. So I see connections that most people, who are experts at their life's work but not this shit, don't see, any more than I'd understand what you do. 

So I've encouraged subscribers to send me questions.  And I endeavor to answer them in the next report, or sometimes on WSE. It has helped me a lot to see where I'm being too dense and arcane.

There really aren't any dumb questions. But there are dumb assumptions, and I make them all the time. 

Also, I'm worried about everything all the time. 

Going Going Gone- We Now Know When The Party Will End

 

OK, thank you! You just picked up a Liquidity Trader Complete customer. Now I will feel free to waste even more bandwidth than usual. 👍

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