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Bulls Charge But Bears Hold The Edge 3/26/21

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The tally on  my daily technical stock screens of 9000 issues on the NYSE and Nadsacs was 20 swing trade buy signals and 24 sells. Of the 20 buys, 2 were inverse ETFs. Therefore 26 of the 44 signals were bearish. 18 were bullish. That's the best bullish side showing since the signals flipped to bearish 8 days ago.  

Yesterday there were just 13 bullish signals and 60 bearish. To that extent the rally was a disappointing surprise. But the screens are looking for signals with a horizon of a couple of weeks, not next day. So we'll see how this works out. I'm not ready to call it a FAIL just yet. 

I use these screens to pick stocks for my ready list for my personal trading, and also for my weekly swing trade chart picks for Technical Trader subscribers. I developed the algorithm to hunt for stocks that looked primed to have a good move, ideally over a period of 4 weeks. In practice they range from 1 week to 7 weeks. I consider the move finished when they break trend support, using the indicators from which the screen program is constructed. 

I run the screens on stocks that have been trading more than 1 million shares per day and are trading above $6. There are normally between 30 and 100 results, depending on where we are in the cycle. There are more signals at cyclical turning point's and fewer as a move progresses. 

From the screen output I visually review the charts. I make my picks from that review.

There are usually between 2 and 8 good looking setups every day. The numbers are bigger around intermediate term turning points. I put these in my ready to trade list each morning, and continue tracking them daily for that purpose until a reversal signal. On the weekends, I pick the best of that screen to add to the swing trade chart picks in the Technical Trader reports.  

Here's today's raw data. These are not recommendations. If you're interested, take a look at these in your own charts. I report. You decide. 😀

 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
AROC.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
ATUS.K 0 1 0 0 1 1
AVGO.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
AY.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
CDMO.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
CHGG.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
COG 1 0 1 1 0 0
CRIS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
CSIQ.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
EXAS.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
FATE.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
FPE 0 1 0 0 0 1
FSLR.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
FSR 1 0 0 0 0 1
FTCH.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
GLNG.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
ICE 1 0 0 0 0 1
IEZ 1 0 0 0 0 1
IMGN.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
KWEB.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
LTHM.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
MAXR.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
MCHP.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
NTRA.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
NUAN.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
NVDA.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
OCGN.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
OI 1 0 0 0 1 0
PANW.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
PRTS.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
QDEL.O 0 1 1 0 0 0
RNG 0 1 0 1 0 0
SMAR.K 0 1 0 0 1 0
SNY.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
SOXX.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
SQ 0 1 0 0 1 0
SQQQ.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SRNE.O 0 1 0 1 1 0
TDC 1 0 0 0 0 1
TECS.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TSLA.O 0 1 0 0 1 0
TTCF.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
VERI.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
WEC 1 0 0 0 1 0
Totals 20 24        

Here's an example of one of my charts. It's just alphabetically the first among the buys, not a recommendation. image.png
Click to enlarge.

It's not an ideal setup and this is an early signal. But it has the potential for a 10-15% move over the next couple of weeks.If it then got through the trend channel centerline, that's where you could see a nice extended run. 

As for right here, it also has obvious support just below the current price. So if I was going to give this a shot, I'd have a good idea where to set the protective stop to take me out. 

A Little Pullback with Big Implications

 

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It will be the biggest QE the Fed has Ever Given. 

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Meanwhile, back at the market, the fucutures extended the rally in Asia, but Europe woke up and was sheptickle. When I awakened this morning, I opened this chart on my phone and the ES was right at the top of the channel. I don't trade the fucutures, but I thought, I really should get up and go short the SPY right now. 

tvc_bb538c781bb57cd7495610eb9fc6ec39.png
Click to engorge.

I didn't. 

But I did come in this morning with one long and one short. Prepared for anything. In other words, I'll cancel myself out. 

So let's look for support at 3900, and we'll find out who's in charge of the trend. We still have lower highs and lower lows, but that could change depending on what happens on this pullback early this morning. 

Meanwhile, back to the future: 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, potatohead said:

is this where we are headed when the Tsunami of new Treasury Supply reaches our shores?

image.thumb.png.fc3ca62a3f9cb901ddcab6cdbd6953b8.png

Could be. That tsunami is hitting us already. Treasury settling $148 billion in coupons March 31. But they're also redeeming a ton of bills to absorb it. They will run out of cash in a few months. That's when the shit will really hit the fan. Pushing back April 15 again screws up the timing. But it will be this summer. 

 

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1 minute ago, DrStool said:

Could be. That tsunami is hitting us already. Treasury settling $148 billion in coupons March 31. But they're also redeeming a ton of bills to absorb it. They will run out of cash in a few months. That's when the shit will really hit the fan. Pushing back April 15 again screws up the timing. But it will be this summer. 

 

Oh the irony.....sitting on a beach in the Summer watching the Treasury tide roll in.

image.jpeg.f12fea3d7be4e325c77ddd278f9a5cc3.jpeg

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They say that when the west side of Las Palmas slides into the Atlantic, Miami will get hit with a 600 foot wall of water. 

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27 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I'll be damned. They broke out. 

tvc_665497c40dac9f5d61dc754f27e6b96f.png

It's not sticking. 

The tape is a frickin mess. Very unstable market. Illiquid. 

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