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Europe Didn't Like It 3/18/21

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5 minutes ago, GregFokker said:

Some traders are observing signs of volatility that may be affecting some markets as speculators eye mutant strains of Covid and looming economic data 😄

 

It's the looming. The looming always gets them.  

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I absolutely love your writing style....I get the humor because I have been in the business since 1992. Its been trench warfare from day one. To stay out of all these bubbles and manias has been diffi

I think the intended paradigm is "Nobody owns anything and everyone is happy."  Its not a system, its how you feel about it. A return to the Dark Ages is beginning to sound good! Whats hard

7 minutes ago, DrStool said:

It's the looming. The looming always gets them.  

I'll tell you what's looming. It's the shadow of Mr. Market standing over and glowering at the Finger trading account today, which lies motionless on the canvas and athwart the ropes. 😡

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16 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Figures. After all these years I finally started buying instead of shorting. I've been a bear for 45 years. Finally capitulated. This is probably the top to end all tops.

Brace for impact!!!!!

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I was short one stock twice and got bucked off both times. I guess I need to start believing in sell signals again.  Like Mr. Hanky, I always believed in them. Brought me lots of presents. 

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52 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Figures. After all these years I finally started buying instead of shorting. I've been a bear for 45 years. Finally capitulated. This is probably the top to end all tops.

Most. Scary. Post. Ever.

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Well, it was just my trading. I was going with the flow. I'm often a few days late at major turns with my technical stuff. Although I've been warning for months from my liquidity observations that the bond market would crash, and that would lead to contagion into stocks. Liquidity establishes context. Technical establish the timing. In the ballpark. 

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That does it for me here in Zadar, Croatia. It's 21:00 hours. Time to shut down.

I'll run the screens in the morning. It's not only the proportion of signals that matters, but the total number. If we start seeing 100 or more sell signals over a couple of days, it's over. 

Good night, and good luck! 

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Again I have to pound on the absurd situation whereby everyone wants the Fed to print to cover deficits in the trillions and the Fed wants to, however they can't bring themselves to say it. I guess they are simply going to have to do it without saying it. Some afternoon announce they are buying a few trillion as soon as possible.  That's the best course because as I said, nobody cares it's just show me the money Jerry. 

In 2016 it was widely accepted that the age of Reason, The Enlightenment, was over.  Sure enough, the tales of magical thinking now boggle the mind. Face it  however was the Age of Reason really so great? 500 years of continuous war in Europe till the last 70 and colonialism.  People forget that double entry bookkeeping was a part of the age or Reason.  A very big part. Well that's over too.  Capital is now unlimited. The system always worked on the underlying assumption that capital was finite. Not so it seems.

Do the powers that be have the need to describe what the new system is.  I guess not.

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I think the intended paradigm is "Nobody owns anything and everyone is happy."  Its not a system, its how you feel about it.

A return to the Dark Ages is beginning to sound good!

Whats hard to fathom is the number of people so stupid as to swallow the media swill that's fed them.

 

 

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CONTEXT IS FRAME

FRAME I define as the forces acting on a market.

The FRAME is constantly changing as the forces change in direction and intensity.

A change In FRAME leads to a change in market direction.

I.e a trend ends and is replaced by another trend.

Is the 40 year bond bull market over.....YES.

Helped greatly by the Government desire to defecit spend to keep the consumption party going.

And the FED's willingness to print to fund such a party.

And the growing unwillingness of other actors to own bonds and fund the party.

A set of forces that have created the PERFECT STORM to end the great bond party which started in 1982.

(Note a normal Kondratieff cycle is 35 years....this party has overstayed its welcome by 3 years thanks to the FED).

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Isn't that the Kuznets? I thought Kondratieff was 80 years. Been ages since I've seen that discussed anywhere. It used to be a staple of bear message boards. Everyone thought 2000 was a Kondratieff top. Of course, Kondratieff didn't know about activist central banks acting in concert to print money all the time, everywhere. 

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