DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 Asia was just fine with whatever Lord Jaysus said yesterday. I didn't watch his dog and pony show but I understand that he promised steady as she goes until time immemorial. And apparently he did say, as I expected, "All is well, remain calm," in ref to the Treasury market. As we know, that's a lie, and the truth will soon out. The Fed will likely resort to emergency infinite QE, that will become permanent, but they won't admit it, and they probably won't call it yield control, yet. Anyway, traders in Asia pushed the ES fucutures to another new high during their trading day, overnight in New Yawk. When European traders got to their desks this morning it was another story. We're only 5 hours ahead here now because we haven't started daylight savings time, so when European markets opened at 4 AM in NY, it was straight down. The fucutures have now fallen to apparent trend support. Over the past few weeks, if we find the right trendline, we have a good idea where the market is going to bounce or get smacked. But it's always about probabilities, and the contingency of what to do if the probable doesn't happen. So this thing should "probably" bounce here. If it does, then we start looking to see if it can get through 3950 and 3960. Rollovers at either of those levels would suggest that a break of support on the next pullback becomes more likely. Clearing those levels suggests that we go back to 3977 where it peaked overnight. If 3940 doesn't hold, then we lookto to the next lines below on the chart, down to yesterday's low. But more significantly, it would break a trend that's been in place since the beginning of March. and it would raise the potential that the slightly uptilted trading range since March 11 was part of a top formation. I'm a little concerned about this pullback because I went out yesterday with 4 longs in my trading account. Not to worry. It's only about 12% of my buying power. I had much larger long positions overnight the previous two sessions, and I managed to cope with those. After getting into a deep hole in the early going yesterday, I traded my ass off and ended up making $25 by the close. I'm writing the the NLRB to complain that my boss isn't paying me minimum wage. I haven't looked yet, but I assume that the positions I have now are a bit under water at current levels. If they've gapped my sell triggers, I need to decide whether to sell on the open, or just cancel the orders, and replace them with stops just below the next sport levels. Opening gaps are a constant problem these days, and require the human to override the machine with a bit of thought about where price is relative to sport. I like to call them sport levels, because trading is really just a game. And if this is the start of a bear market, then as you know, there's no such thing as "support." I'm running the screens for my trading hot list selection. I will post the raw data for you so that you can take a look at these in your own charts and decide if you want to pick a few of your own. I encourage you to converse about your own thoughts on any of this. If you are a new reader, please register and join in. To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Fasten Your Seatbelts While We Wait for the Fed Rescue 3/17/21 Fed and US Treasury Are Ensuring that Macro Liquidity Stays Bullish LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER MARCH 16, 2021 Rally Is Set to Accelerate if These Benchmarks Trigger Treasury’s Bond Market Rescue – Get Ready For the PONT Spread Bulge Hints of Gold Bottom Time for a Stock Market Six Month Cycle Low Infinite QE Is Coming Despite Skyrocketing Economic Growth Here’s The Evidence That The US Treasury is Bailing Out Stricken Primary Dealers FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 Here is my stock screen spitout for today. These are not recommendations. I figure you stoolies know enough that you can look at some of these on your own charts and do with them what you will. I will pick a few to add to my ready list for my trading today. Those I will not share with you. I also use these lists, particularly the weekend run, for my chart picks in the weekly Technical Trader reports. After running the screen, I eyeball the charts for the best risk/ reward setups for swing trades. Then I put them on the chart pick list with close out trigger formulas and track them every week from their opening to their dump off point. Here's today's raw screen output. Wow. 3 buys and 24 sells. That's an absolute flip from the overwhelming preponderance of buy signals the past few weeks. Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50 CLDR.K 1 0 0 0 1 0 FTV 1 0 0 0 1 1 WPRT.O 1 0 0 0 0 1 ABBV.K 0 1 0 0 0 1 AU 0 1 1 0 0 1 AY.O 0 1 0 0 1 0 BBY 0 1 0 0 0 1 BJ 0 1 0 0 0 1 CPB 0 1 1 0 1 0 CERN.O 0 1 0 1 0 0 CHFS.O 0 1 0 0 1 0 CWEN.K 0 1 0 1 0 0 ENIA.K 0 1 1 0 0 0 FEYE.O 0 1 0 0 0 1 GSK 0 1 0 0 0 1 IBN 0 1 0 0 0 1 MAC 0 1 0 0 0 1 MBT 0 1 0 1 1 0 MOMO.O 0 1 0 0 0 1 MNST.O 0 1 0 0 0 1 NRG 0 1 0 0 0 1 PCG 0 1 0 0 0 1 PGR 0 1 0 0 1 0 PEG 0 1 0 0 1 0 REGI.O 0 1 0 0 1 0 TMO 0 1 0 1 0 0 TRU 0 1 0 1 0 0 Totals 3 24 So my next step is to look at these 27 charts. I'll use the first symbol as an example. Aha! There's a reason that I need to look at these. I'm not a good enough programmer to write an algo that will weed out pieces of shit like this. I wouldn't buy this with your money, let alone mine. Sure, it will probably bounce to 14, but then what. I want to buy (or short) things that are set up to run with the trend for a few weeks. A stock that has a short term buy signal after a massive breakdown ain't it. Conversely, once this POS rallies a little, it could set up as a perfect short, like if it gets back to 14 and starts to roll over. Be interesting to see if it pops up as a sell in a week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PullMyFinger Posted March 18, 2021 Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 NAS futures kinda taking it on the chin in the overnights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 5 day cycle projection 3925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 Weeelllll. This could get ugly if they can't hold this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 LEE'S FREE THINKING Bond Market Crash Update by Lee Adler • March 18, 2021 • 0 Comments Quite the Hindenburg Omen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 18, 2021 Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 Lee, you are hands down the best liquidity anal cyst out there. So many call them selves the bond king....what a joke. 5 year treasury starting to pick up steam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, potatohead said: Lee, you are hands down the best liquidity anal cyst out there. So many call them selves the bond king....what a joke. 5 year treasury starting to pick up steam.. Thanks for the RT on Twitter! It was good for 15 followers. I am finally closing in on 5000. I treaded water just below because I pissed off as many followers as I attracted. Now I'm trying to be a nice guy. It's not easy. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 18, 2021 Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 1 minute ago, DrStool said: Thanks for the RT on Twitter! It was good for 15 followers. I am finally closing in on 5000. I treaded water just below because I pissed off as many followers as I attracted. Now I'm trying to be a nice guy. It's not easy. LOL I absolutely love your writing style....I get the humor because I have been in the business since 1992. Its been trench warfare from day one. To stay out of all these bubbles and manias has been difficult. Your writing style and views has made these markets much more palatable. At this point, my concern is confidence in the system itself. This is a risk most will not know how to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 The Fed is the system. I really believe that most of the Primary Dealers would have collapsed last March had not the Fed injected that $2 trillion in a few weeks. Now they've got them on a $200 billion monthly drip, and the Treasury adds another quarter trillion on top of it and they are powerless. The collateral calls are cascading down on them. It's incredible considering how massively hedged they are that they are still overexposed. There's a lot of evil in the world. It tends to congregate on Wall Street and the world's capitals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, potatohead said: I absolutely love your writing style....I get the humor because I have been in the business since 1992. Its been trench warfare from day one. To stay out of all these bubbles and manias has been difficult. Your writing style and views has made these markets much more palatable. At this point, my concern is confidence in the system itself. This is a risk most will not know how to handle. You do realize of course, that if you get my humor, there's something wrong with you. 😁😁😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted March 18, 2021 Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 48 minutes ago, DrStool said: You do realize of course, that if you get my humor, there's something wrong with you. 😁😁😁 Jokingly, anyone who has stayed in this business for more than 20 years may have a couple of screws lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted March 18, 2021 Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 it's finally going to trial after 20 years of being in limbo. CANCER LAWSUIT FILED IN 2001 WILL FINALLY GO TO TRIAL In 2001 and 2002, Michael Patrick Murrayand five other people, all of whom had brain tumors located beneath where they had held their cell phones, sued the telecommunications industry for damages. In 2010 and 2011, seven more brain cancer victims joined the case as additional plaintiffs. The defendants represent most of the American telecommunications industry: Verizon,Sprint, AT&T,T-Mobile, Bell South, Bell Atlantic, Motorola, Qualcomm, Samsung, SONY, Sanyo, Nokia, the CTIA, the FCC, and dozens of other telecos. https://www.cellphonetaskforce.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Beginning-the-Healing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted March 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2021 Shit breaking down here. I guess all those sell signals from yesterday ment sumpin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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