Jump to content

Life Is Short and Getting Shorter- Have Fun 3/16/21

Rate this topic


Recommended Posts

That just came to me this morning. 

Watching the shitshow in the US from a distance since November 2019, I felt pretty good about deciding to stay here in Europe when the pandemic shut everything down. It was, for me, the right decision. The US told everyone overseas to come home, and then they herded tens of thousands of people through 5 airports, mostly New York. 

I thought about it, knowing by then that I was in a class of people with the highest risk factors for death by COVID, and I said, "No thanks." 

It was the right choice then, and therefore, despite the fact that the US is now doing a lot better than Europe, the right choice now. I love it here. Even though it is beginning to feel as though I may never get vaccinated. If I was back in good old FLA, I would most likely have had both my shots by now. 

But if I had traveled through 4 airports, taking 3 flights to get back home in March last year, there's a good chance I'd be dead, so I'm glad I made the choice I did. I absolutely love Europe. I love Croatia, and I love the town of Zadar on the Adriatic Sea, which happens to be my home for now.  

Besides, I've used all the time that I've had in isolation, with virtually no actual human contact, to focus on my business, and on top of that to develop a workable, semi automated trading system. 

That project has been choppy, with some successes, and lots of frustration, but lately, it has begun to show pretty consistent positive results, while needing a little less work as I move along honing the system.  But it still requires a couple hours of prep each day, as well as intense focus on the screen throughout the trading day. Being alone all the time makes that possible, and dare I say, even a little enjoyable. 

After all, this is the work that I have loved since I was a kid. I started charting in 1963 with point and figure charts. I started doing cycle charts by hand on Keuffel and Esser charting paper after reading Hurst, the cycles guru, in 1970.  I started watching the ticker tape in my broker's office in the summer of 1967. I became seriously interested in monetary policy effects in the market in the 1970s, and I've been working in finance, including a stint on Wall Street, since 1977. 

But the most fun I ever had was that summer when I drove an ice cream truck. 

Where my trading model is now is that trade selection is partly automated, and partly human. Both have a high failure rate, but the important thing is that the success rate is a tad higher.

That's all you need. The trick is to have automatic triggers that cut the failures quickly, while leaving the good stuff. Here's a thought. Cut your losses. Let your profits run. Easier said than done, but doable. With computerization and today's sophisticated math in charting programs, it's possible to construct algos that do that reasonably well, even for a non rocket scientist like me. 

The trick is not to let it bother you when you happen to cut the good stuff along with the losses. It happens. Its a market. Shit whipsaws ALL... THE... TIME. Deal with it. If the system works more often than not, the trick is to just keep doing it. Take the losses quickly, and let the system keep you in the runners. 

Not only that. A good algo that takes you out of a stock that's gonna run, should put you back in right away if it reverses. Which mine do. There's a cost, sure, but there's also sometimes a big payoff at the other end when you jump right into something that you just got shook out of. Don't let the shakeouts phase you. Put the position back on. Just remember that if it happens 3 times, this is baseball. You're out! 

The second part of my trades are fully automatic. I only have one set of eyes. I'm traveling all the time. I only have two screens. Even if I had one of those monster 6 screen rigs, I can't watch 8 or 10 or 14 charts at a time and be able to respond instantly when it's time to close a trade. So I've written some slightly esoteric trend following algos that keep the trade open until it is more likely than not that most of the run is complete. When that sell signal occurs, the closing trade is triggered automatically. Therefore, once the positions are on, I can take a nap. or a walk. 

I'm 70. I need lots of naps. 

Here is the list of charts my screens spit out today. This is unfiltered. These are not recommendations.  I figure you stoolies know enough that you can look at some of these on your own charts and do with them what you will. I will pick a few to add to my ready list for today. 

There were only 28 charts with good signal setups out of the 8700 listed issues that I screen. The screens weed out those selling for under $6 and where volume averages less than 1 million shares a day. That usually leaves about 1500-1600 that get the technical analysis treatment. 

A week ago they were spitting out 100 good signal charts for a couple of days. Now there are far fewer. That's a normal part of a maturing move. But importantly, we're not yet seeing a preponderance of sell signals. 

Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
CDMO.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
BBBY.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
EIX 1 0 0 0 0 1
AG 1 0 0 0 0 1
GLPI.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
HIMX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
INTU.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TAP 1 0 1 0 0 0
MDB.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
PAAS.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
AGQ 1 0 0 0 1 0
KOLD.K 1 0 0 1 1 0
SJI 1 0 1 0 0 0
SHOP.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
SNAP.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
SPOT.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
TUP 1 0 0 1 0 0
UAL.O 1 0 1 0 0 0
VST 1 0 0 1 0 0
AU 0 1 1 0 0 0
LLY 0 1 0 0 0 1
HRL 0 1 0 0 1 0
INSM.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
OI 0 1 0 0 0 1
ZSL 0 1 0 0 0 1
SU 0 1 1 0 0 0
TDS 0 1 1 0 0 0
VALE.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
  19 9        
There were 19 buys and 9 sells. Two of the sells were inverse ETFs. That means that 21 of the 28 signals were bullish. One inverse ETF was for silver. Those bullish signals for the metal and the miners have popped up several times over the past week. I have no idea if it's significant. But there it is. 
             

Meanwhile, I carried 7 positions overnight. All longs. Being long is a new thing for me. Lately I've been all long all the time, which is really quite a change at my age. 

I'm shitting myself waiting to see how NY will open. However, this is only 30% of capacity, so if it goes the wrong way, my automatic triggers will close them and it won't hurt too much. 

I hope. Right now they're actually up a tad from last night, and they were up a tad at the close, so I'm reasonably comfortable here. We'll see. 

Meanwhile, the ES fucutures are just sitting there, a tad below the new all time high they set yesterday by a couple of ticks. The 5 day cycle projection is now 3985-90, but 5 day cycle indicators have edged to the sell side. A 2-3 day cycle projection of 3963 is done. 

3955 is minor trend support. If that breaks, we're looking at  3944 as the next trend support area. I guess we'll get a little pullback going into the NY open, but then the BTFD crowd should show up again.  Bulls are in charge as long as the big trendline now at 3937 is intact. 

tvc_62e0bff3d20b74593b6b5cebe4830fb5.png
Click to engorge

If you want the big picture, join me at Liquidity Trader's Technical Trader service. I run a weekly overview of the market's technical condition, with likely price and time targets for short term to long term time frames. And each week I pick the best chart picks from the technical screens for you to watch, track, and play with if you so choose.  

To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

Rally Is Set to Accelerate if These Benchmarks Trigger

Treasury’s Bond Market Rescue – Get Ready For the PONT Spread Bulge 

FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 22
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

That just came to me this morning.  Watching the shitshow in the US from a distance since November 2019, I felt pretty good about deciding to stay here in Europe when the pandemic shut everything

Trading has been a bit choppy here lately and I thought the newbie daytraders might have gone and got real jobs however they're back in force.  Check this one out:   I bought this one

A week ago a friend's ex husband died of Covid. Today her father died. That's 6 people I know of who have died. My friend had it for a several weeks and was deathly ill at one point. She's recove

Trading has been a bit choppy here lately and I thought the newbie daytraders might have gone and got real jobs however they're back in force.  Check this one out:

image.png.b360eabd9f4bb801115bca007a38bf93.png

 

I bought this one back in January for 1.05 cents when there was a brief stirring of interest.  It drifted back down until yesterday when I sold 2 small parcels, one at 1.4c and the other at 1.8c.  Lo and behold it gets bought again today and I sold some more for 2.3c.  Unbelievable.  The company has a few oil and gas tenements in Alaska, no announcement, nothing has changed far as I know, rumour and innuendo it seems.  But who's complaining.  😉

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

A week ago a friend's ex husband died of Covid. Today her father died.

That's 6 people I know of who have died. My friend had it for a several weeks and was deathly ill at one point. She's recovering. 

This sucks. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

So it's Fed day tomorrow.  It is an odd thing that the entire world knows they are going to go big into the long end.  Not only that everyone wants it.  The funny thing is they can't bring themselves to say it. It weird.

Link to post
Share on other sites

5 day cycle indicators edge to the sell side from negative divergence. Should be good for a little selloff. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I doled out my longs all day. The circus comes to town tomorrow. I put my tickets on stubhub. I'll just stand along the parade route and watch the elephants and clowns go by.  It's great when the elephants shit on the clowns. Always good for a laugh. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • ×
    • Create New...