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Downhill Dinosaur Survey Says 3/15/21

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Zooming in to 30 minute bars, the ES fucutures are gearing up for another breakout. The 2-3 day cycle projection of 3965 would break the old high of 3959.  

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There's an indication of potential trend resistance at that level. But once they cross that, then the next potential minor resistance zone is around 3980. That probably would not hold for long. There's more serious trend resistance at 4020.  

The Treasury settles $99 billion in new coupon paper today, but it pumped $55 billion into the system last week via T-bill paydowns and it has another $44 billion in paydowns coming tomorrow and Thursday. Now let's see. New issuance of $99 billion in coupons, and paydowns of $99 billion. Must be coincidence. 🤨 

And lest we forget, we're in the middle of Fed monthly MBS settlement week. The Fed is pumping in another $131 billion in cold cash directly into Primary Dealer trading accounts at the Fed in the March 11-18 week. $87 billion of that came last Thursday. The rest comes today and this Thursday. You can catch up in the latest in depth report and forecast at Liquidity Trader.

To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

Rally Is Set to Accelerate if These Benchmarks Trigger  

Treasury’s Bond Market Rescue – Get Ready For the PONT Spread Bulge 

Here’s The Evidence That The US Treasury is Bailing Out Stricken Primary Dealers

 

FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money

 

 

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The Fed's new format H6 money supply release is utterly useless. The stopped weekly publication.  It now includes only monthly averages, and is released on the 4th Tuesday of the month for the preceding month. So current data is effectively Jan 15.  Useless. 

When the Fed doesn't want you to know what's going on in near real time, this is how it operates. 

But they still publish the H8 commercial bank data weekly, which has data that is very similar to the old H6 data, so I can substitute that in my analysis. I have to rebuild multiple data sets and charts, which is causing a bit of delay in my publication schedule for the macro liquidity data. 

I was hoping to publish a composite liquidity report today, but I'll have to push it back to tomorrow. 

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

All of these Alzheimers drugs are bullshit. Absolute frauds.  

They put these poor people on brain altering drugs, giving families false hope. Their psychological side effects are horrible, and they do not help the patients one iota. Complete scam. 

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They find ways to skew the studies so that they show some benefits. I watched over my mom, saw dozens of Alzheimers patients and caregivers and families through the years, and none saw any benefit from those drugs. But doctors kept prescribing them? Why? Because they were getting paid.  

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My parents never had that hot streak. Worked their asses off all their lives. Saved a few hundred thousand. Dad died. Mom was ok for a few years. Then Alzheimers and Ben Shitstorm Bernanke stole the nestegg from her. For the last 3 years of her life, she was on 3 different government assistance programs, plus yours truly chipping in.  

Nobody said life was fair, but it would be nice if there weren't so many fucking bloodsuckers trying to steal whatever the simple, honest, hard working people accumulate. 

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Just ahead of pandemic lockdown, we moved my parents into a senior facility nearby. My dad - 96 - was moved into memory care last May when he was found trying to wander away at 1:30am in the morning.  Born into poverty of the Depression, he cleaned his great aunts' chicken coops as a 6 year old to make his keep with them when his father couldn't support my dad and his brother; then World War II.  Things improved wildly thereafter.

He lived a preposterously full life. At 95, he was still catching the bus up to our place, staying fit by working in our garden, having a periodic martini before dinner. The last 10 years of his life were all on the Casino's money. I was thinking of him with my quip.

 

 

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