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5 Day Cycle Low 3/12/21

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Wait. What? 

We just equaled the all time high in the ES fucutures yesterday, and you're telling me we're at a low at 4 AM live in New York on Friday morning? 

No, I'm not telling you that I'm live in New York. I'm in Croatia.

But the market should be at a 5 day cycle low, as I type. It has pulled back from that high it made yesterday afternoon. Given the extended up phase, the down phase would normally be very short. And here we are at trend support, with a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3915 having been reached, so I'm guessing "low" here.  

tvc_594cee59e403cf3808a97a74a5e5ecdf.png
Click to engorge

However, if they break 3911 here, I'm gonna be wishing I hadn't said the above. The next target below that would be 3900.  

If we hold here, and then stall at 3925-30 on the way back up, then we have the makings of a top. But if they clear that, it... could... go... all... the... way. 

The reverse head and shoulders breakout has a conventional measuring objective of 4100 or 4150. 

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for those interested. I was interviewed on Palisades Radio  

Very kewl! I will give a listen ASAP! 

Have a great weekend! 

Yesterday I posted the raw output of the daily technical screen I run of some 8700 listed NYSE and Nasdaq stonks. I pre filter for a minimum price of 6 bucks and minimum average volume of a million shares per day over the past 4 weeks.  The I apply techical filters looking for short term cycle buy and sell signals near key longer period cycle support ranges. There were 34 results yesterday, all but one on the long side. 

28 of those ended with a gain from the opening price. Of course one of the losers was the short. The average gain, including the losers, was 2.2%.

Screen output March 11 Column1 Column2 Column3
  Open Last % Ch
ABBV.K 108.13 107.87 -0.1%
ACN 260 266.37 3.6%
APPS.O 80.99 86.98 14.6%
EA.O 132.46 131.34 0.9%
ENPH.O 158.49 165.34 8.5%
EW 83.64 82.97 0.0%
FNF 40.56 41 1.2%
GLNG.O 11.01 10.99 0.4%
HYLB.K 49.74 49.77 0.3%
IEA.O 15.24 16.52 10.9%
ILF 27.91 28.31 3.2%
INVH.K 29.4 29.71 1.4%
KOSS.O 26.99 25.22 -16.7%
KTOS.O 26 26.95 5.5%
LQD 130.29 130.21 0.1%
MPW 21.58 21.22 -1.3%
MTG 13 13.05 0.7%
NOC 299.39 299.41 -0.2%
O 61.68 61.82 0.7%
OPCH.O 19.59 20.72 5.8%
OTRK.O 30.5 35.18 17.3%
PRTS.O (short) 15.35 15.85 -5.9%
QYLD.O 22.54 22.72 2.3%
SFL 8.31 8.3 0.1%
SILJ.K 15.05 15.25 2.1%
SPY 392.23 393.53 1.0%
SWBI.O 18.96 18.95 1.0%
TPIC.O 51.46 51.24 2.4%
VSTO.K 32.57 33.1 3.5%
VT 97.29 97.82 1.3%
WEN.O 20.46 20.27 -1.0%
WPRT.O 9.5 9.53 2.9%
XLNX.O 122.02 126.09 6.2%
XLRE.K 37.92 38.37 1.5%
      2.2%

 

Again, this is the raw data that I work with each day. The screens take about 5 minutes to run. Then I eyeball each chart. I'm looking for a couple that look like good candidates for a swing trade of 1-3 weeks. Here's a sample chart from today's spitout. It happens to be ABT. I choose it only because of alphabetical order. This choice has zero significance, other than as an illustration. 

image.png

As a buy, I'd rate this setup as "just ok." This is a decent entry point because you can set a stop around 115 and have very limited risk. The rebound potential is good, but there are overhead supply issues and time issues that suggest that it's too early, or that the rebound will be flattish. So, unless I had unlimited trading capital, I'd say, "Meh. Next!" 

One of my rules is to avoid biotechs and healthcare stocks in general. I hate them. They're subjec to nasty, nasty news surprises that result in shit like this. This stock was a buy yesterday, and was the biggest winner in the list, but only because it is rebounding from a crash two weeks ago. Not my cup of tea. This is OTRK. I was curious about what it was, so I read the profile. An online medical platform to treat behavioral issues. What a scam. 

image.png

But then, everything is a scam today. Can you believe this NFT shit? I mean, WTF is that! Some asshole paid another asshole 69 million bucks for a digital "artwork" NFT yesterday. 69 million!!! WTF!

NFT means Non Fungible Token. I thought a token was something you used to ride the subway. I'm old. 

Anyway, I thought I'd post the raw screen data again. I remind you, these are not recommendations. Just illustrating how I go about my work. I'll pick a few of these to trade for my own account today. And if they're still well set up, I'll add them to my weekend chart picks list that I publish in the Liquidity Trader - Technical Trader reports each week. You can try those reports for 3 months risk free if you have never subscribed before. Here's the latest, posted last Sunday.

Time for a Stock Market Six Month Cycle Low 

Today's screen output has 66 signals. There are a few more sell signals than over the past week, when there were almost none. Today there were 10, but two were bearish ETFs, so 58 of the 66 signals were still bullish. Not good odds for bears. I will look at the shorts, and see if any are worth a shot, but I'll still tilt toward the long side. 

Screen Output March 12, 2021 Column1 Column2 Column3 Column4 Column5 Column6
Symbol Buy Sell 500 200 125 50
VFF.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
TWOU.O 1 0 0 1 1 0
ABT 1 0 0 0 0 1
ALT.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
APTV.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TEAM.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ATHM.K 1 0 0 1 0 0
AZUL.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
BDX 1 0 0 1 1 0
BIIB.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
CHGG.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
CLNE.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SID 1 0 0 0 0 1
CCI 1 0 1 0 0 0
SILJ.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
EXAS.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
FSM 1 0 0 1 0 0
GNMK.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
HTBX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
HL 1 0 0 0 0 1
HOLX.O 1 0 0 1 1 0
INFN.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
INTU.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
IXUS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
HYG 1 0 0 0 1 0
ACWI.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
ACWX.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
EWT 1 0 0 0 0 1
LITE.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
MGNI.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
MAXR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
MSTR.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
MOMO.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
EDU 1 0 0 1 0 1
OKTA.O 1 0 0 1 0 0
ON.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
OSTK.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
PRPL.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
RNG 1 0 0 0 1 0
SINO.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
SQM 1 0 0 0 0 1
SJNK.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
STNE.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
STOR.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
TAL 1 0 0 1 1 1
TRMB.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
VALE.K 1 0 0 0 0 1
VEU 1 0 0 0 0 1
VXUS.O 1 0 0 0 0 1
VCYT.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
VRT 1 0 0 0 0 1
VG.O 1 0 0 0 1 0
XPO 1 0 0 0 0 1
ASHR.K 1 0 0 0 1 0
YUM 1 0 0 0 1 0
ZEN 1 0 0 0 1 0
ALSN.K 0 1 1 0 1 0
BLL 0 1 0 1 0 0
CELH.O 0 1 0 0 0 1
KO 0 1 0 0 1 0
SOXS.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
TECS.K 0 1 0 0 0 1
FIS 0 1 0 1 0 0
GILD.O 0 1 0 1 0 0
HSBC.K 0 1 1 0 0 0
PRTY.K 0 1 0 0 0 1

Yesterday was a very, very good day for me. I get no joy from gathering profits on the long side. But it's a business. There's no joy in being a permabear, either, and being wrong all the time.  A few people can do it. I can't. The trend is your only friend. I like to get it right. 

To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

 

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Here they come. 

US traders are at their desks and -- what else is new-- they are BTFDing. 

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25 minutes ago, potatohead said:

for those interested. I was interviewed on Palisades Radio

 

Very kewl! I will give a listen ASAP! 

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I'm long up the wazoo. Have my automatic sell orders in place, but I would still take a hit if this goes south. I've taken some profits, and have a little cushion. 

Cue Jaws theme. 

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