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Self Feeding Rally 3/10/21

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Looking at the hourly chart, it sure looks as though this thing is ready to roll over again in the downstairs slinky pattern of the last couple of weeks. 

Here's a nice big wide chart of the ES 24 hour fucutures which you can see in detail if you click to engorge. 

tvc_e53d34d76fbd6f4ed90992802937c5c0.png

We've had alternating 3 or 5 day waves. They go up. They bend. They go down. Lower highs and lower lows since mid February. 

So you'd think we're gonna roll over here again. Breaking 3865 would confirm. 

Ah, but not so fast. This upwave lasted longer than the 3 previous ones. It was broken up by some nasty selloffs. Then buyers, whether longs buying outright, or shorts covering, came back, bought each dip, and pushed the rally higher. This went on for 3 days. Barring something triggering a crash, which I'm not feeling here, there's no enough time for this wave to drop to a new low. 

Furthermore, the US Treasury is pumping $55 billion into the markets this week, and the Fed starts its usual monthly MBS settlement week tomorrow. The liquidity flowing into this thing will be gargantuan. 

So yeah, we might pull back a little here today. If 3865 doesn't hold, then I'd expect 3855 to be the target. There, multiple trend and cycle lines crisscross to form what should be what the French call "formidable" support. 

On the upside, there's an unmet 5 day cycle projection of 3925. If they clear 3901 in the next day or two, that would complete a perfect reverse head and shoulder pattern that measures to 4100, as I mentioned yesterday. 

It's disheartening to be a bear. Trading successfully requires either a permanently bullish outlook, or totally dispassionate agnosticism. I really don't care which way the market goes any more. All I care about is being on the right side of the move.  We're not going to fix the world. It's not fixable. 

To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

 

Time for a Stock Market Six Month Cycle Low

 

Infinite QE Is Coming Despite Skyrocketing Economic Growth

 

Meanwhile, here's some free stuff I've written about this unfolding catastrophe.

US Treasury Injects Another $30 Billion Into Market

Treasury Announces It Will Inject ANOTHER $25 Billion For $125 Billion Weekly Total

 

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according to the FED, it is transitory.......Nothing to see here.......

now add in 30 minutes of FED doublespeak (talking out of their A$$), and they will explain

in futher transparent detail, with due deligence and data dependent of course,

all is normal........AND IT TOO, IS NOT THEIR FAULT........

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9 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Was there some news? 

Didn't see any news, but didn't look that hard for it either. Just taking a mid-morning nap I guess. Up off the floor. Those two red candles are pretty brutal, considering that's a 15 minute chart. 

Screen Shot 2021-03-10 at 11.36.06 AM.png

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When I was a kid, sitting in the peanut gallery watching the tape with the old guys, whenever the market moved one of them would say, "Was there some news?"

Without fail. 

Every time. 

I hear it in my sleep. 

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