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Ugly Head 2/22/21

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And shoulders over 3 weeks. Completed, and busted. The thing measures to about 3805. The 5 day cycle projection points to 3855-70. 

The right shoulder is slightly higher than the left. I can't remember the last time one of these, with a right shoulder higher than the left, broke down and led to a big decline. Even 3800 would surprise me. 

Here at 4 AM ET, they've coming off a support convergence. The hourly oscillators got Dover Sole, so I'm gonna say that was the cycle low, subject to a test with a positive divergence within the next 6 hours. 

Click to engorge. tvc_7852d9b1e1a9196a31bc5e0e64389440.png

 

Quelle est la raison du jour for this morning's selloff? The meltdown in the bond market is bringing collateral call pressure. The 10 year is now 1.37. 

The media is partly correctly blaming the bond market. But they are wrongly blaming rising yields, when the proximate, direct cause, is falling prices> Yields are the mirror of that, for sure, but they miss the point. Falling prices are triggering margin calls, leading to more falling prices, leading to contagion, as dealers and leveraged longs sell whatever they can to raise cash.  

This could spiral out of control. 

Skating on Thin Ice, Keep Life Preservers Handy

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It doesn't mean a thing but TNX is exactly where it was a year ago, to the day, as it plunged during the Covid, sell Mortimore sell moment.  A point never seen again, till now.  

Another milestone probably nobody even knows about is that HSBC just announced it is leaving the US retail banking biz. The legendary criminal bank bought the failing criminal Household Finance in 2002 to bail it out and since it had a tiny bank attached HSBC became a US bank.  Everyone was overjoyed.  I think its exit from the US makes a pretty good story about the end of an era.

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Over the past couple of months in my chart picks I've ignored technical sell signals as short sale selections because trend structures were still solidly bullish. 

Many of those sell signals have proven that they would have been profitable shorts. 

The times, they are a changin'. 

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1 minute ago, DrStool said:

Do have a nice night and a good day tomorrow! 

Good night all! 

Lovely serene photo.

Those are Roman ruins in the foreground, I betchya.

Christian habit of erecting their temples where the Pagans had theirs.

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