DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Equal height trend channels have been really helpful to us through the years in identifying support, resistance, and price targets on the intraday movements of the S&P 500 and, more recently, the ES futures. Lately, not so much. I draw the channels, just like always, but instead of stopping and turning on a dime, violations of the lines seem larger and larger, and more and more frequent. So why bother? I don't have an answer, other than, maybe things will return to "normal." But I doubt it. These are signs of increasingly disorderly, unstable markets. That's a trend that is unlikely to reverse any time soon. Just my opinion. But is it really so abnormal, or is this just mental distortion? At least cycle projections still seem to work, more often than not. Support and resistance LEVELS, that is the horizontal lines from prior highs and lows, still seem to work, in very short time spans. Although, in today's environment, they tend to hold, only on the downside. They get broken on the upside. And guess what! If we draw the trendlines just so, with an eye to connecting highs and connecting lows, with just a little bit of give each way, with parallel lines on the other side of the channel, they do tend to contain most of the action. Not all, but most. That's what we have to work with. It has to be good enough. So what do we have here? Short term bottom, or consolidation for another downdraft. Don't know. Odds are the first, but they need to clear 3937 to confirm. On the other hand, if they take out 3915, then I think we're good for 3886, next. To post your observations, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Bulletin! Treasury Paying Down $55 BILLION RIGHT NOW to AVERT CATASTROPHE! Bear With Me, Here’s Why I Gotta Stay Long Primary Dealers are Already Dead 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER FEBRUARY 11, 2021 Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER FEBRUARY 13, 2021 FREE REPORT – Proof of How QE Works – Fed to Primary Dealers, to Markets, To Money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER FEBRUARY 11, 2021 Primary Dealers are Dead – Part 2 – Springtime Coming for Hibernating Bears 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER FEBRUARY 13, 2021
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 In the old stays, the stock market used to climb a wall of worry. In the current era, the stock market climbs a wall of QE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 We're kind of on the hair trigger. 30 minute bars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 The heck with lines. Individual low points on bar charts of various interday periods, nipple bottoms, around the top of any hour are a lot more fun to watch for and watch. I'd say a rough case can be made that algos are current attuned to the clock, usually the top but sometimes the bottom of hours, as points to withhold support momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Treasury Joins Fed in Spewing Money into A Black Hole 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER FEBRUARY 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 2-3 day cycle projection 3880 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 call it 3875-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 18, 2021 Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 An extremely rare nipple top on the 1 minute chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 That one came right down to trend support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Felt crapitulatory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 Is this the bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 If they don't break this downtrend. the afternoon will make this morning look like a Sunday School picnic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 They need a stock selloff to get whatever loose change there is to rotate into Treasuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 They're above the channel. Need to hold and extend. If it stalls, it's still trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 hours ago, DrStool said: 2-3 day cycle projection 3880 That was the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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