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When Long Isn't Wrong 1/4/21

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If the dollar were to lose its reserve-currency status, abruptly & unexpectedly, TNX could soar handsomely and grotesquely over 1.00 in the blink of an eye and for decades, without any ability of

From Zadar, Good night, and good luck! 

I don't really think TNX is going to turn up.  Not for many years anyway. Sideways sure.  The credit cycle has been canceled.  There will not be a reckoning, by my reckoning.  Honestly Lee. Do you really think you will see much over 1, ever?

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20 minutes ago, Jorma said:

I don't really think TNX is going to turn up.  Not for many years anyway. Sideways sure.  The credit cycle has been canceled.  There will not be a reckoning, by my reckoning.  Honestly Lee. Do you really think you will see much over 1, ever?

If the dollar were to lose its reserve-currency status, abruptly & unexpectedly, TNX could soar handsomely and grotesquely over 1.00 in the blink of an eye and for decades, without any ability of the Fed/Treasury nexus to stem or reverse it.

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I have no idea.  I just follow the charts and the data. If it does it does. The long term chart looks higher to me. There are no indications yet that the of the past 2 months is a top. 

My point has been that if it does, when it does, it's a huge problem.  Whether it does depends on all the moving parts. Right now, they're in stasis with the most important part being that the Treasury has $1.6 trillion in cash and it is mandated to get rid of $1.5 trillion of it. So much depends on how they elect to do that. 

The yield has doubled in 4 months. A consolidation of several months is not extraordinary. It is absolutely normal for yields to remain tightly rangebound for months and months on end. The trading range won't last forever, however.

In 1975, nobody ever thought that the Dow would get past 900.   

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7 minutes ago, Jimi said:

If the dollar were to lose its reserve-currency status, abruptly & unexpectedly, TNX could soar handsomely and grotesquely over 1.00 in the blink of an eye and for decades, without any ability of the Fed/Treasury nexus to stem or reverse it.

Bite your tongue. 

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

LEE'S FREE THINKING

The Monster Is in the Room – Commercial Real Estate

by Lee Adler • January 4, 2021 • 0 Comments

I think that if there’s anything that illustrates the head in the sand problem of the banks, it’s this. Commercial real estate (CRE) finance. There’s a monster in the room. All that empty room. 

Great interview with Green and Chanos where this is discussed 

 

 

 

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