DrStool Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 5 day cycle projection still 3640-45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 2-3 day cycle projection 3650 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 I don't really think TNX is going to turn up. Not for many years anyway. Sideways sure. The credit cycle has been canceled. There will not be a reckoning, by my reckoning. Honestly Lee. Do you really think you will see much over 1, ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted January 4, 2021 Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, Jorma said: I don't really think TNX is going to turn up. Not for many years anyway. Sideways sure. The credit cycle has been canceled. There will not be a reckoning, by my reckoning. Honestly Lee. Do you really think you will see much over 1, ever? If the dollar were to lose its reserve-currency status, abruptly & unexpectedly, TNX could soar handsomely and grotesquely over 1.00 in the blink of an eye and for decades, without any ability of the Fed/Treasury nexus to stem or reverse it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 I have no idea. I just follow the charts and the data. If it does it does. The long term chart looks higher to me. There are no indications yet that the of the past 2 months is a top. My point has been that if it does, when it does, it's a huge problem. Whether it does depends on all the moving parts. Right now, they're in stasis with the most important part being that the Treasury has $1.6 trillion in cash and it is mandated to get rid of $1.5 trillion of it. So much depends on how they elect to do that. The yield has doubled in 4 months. A consolidation of several months is not extraordinary. It is absolutely normal for yields to remain tightly rangebound for months and months on end. The trading range won't last forever, however. In 1975, nobody ever thought that the Dow would get past 900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Jimi said: If the dollar were to lose its reserve-currency status, abruptly & unexpectedly, TNX could soar handsomely and grotesquely over 1.00 in the blink of an eye and for decades, without any ability of the Fed/Treasury nexus to stem or reverse it. Bite your tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 4, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2021 From Zadar, Good night, and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
itiswhatitis Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 hours ago, DrStool said: LEE'S FREE THINKING The Monster Is in the Room – Commercial Real Estate by Lee Adler • January 4, 2021 • 0 Comments I think that if there’s anything that illustrates the head in the sand problem of the banks, it’s this. Commercial real estate (CRE) finance. There’s a monster in the room. All that empty room. Great interview with Green and Chanos where this is discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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