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Merry Christmas, Welcome to Hell 12/24/20

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I wish you the best possible holiday under the circumstances, and thanks for even stopping in to see what's going on here!

At least there's finally light at the end of the tunnel, as long as we get to the other side of this black hole on January 21. I'm not entirely sure that we will. 

The stock and bond markets also seem to have some doubt. The 10 year yield tested the recent high yesterday. It's didn't quite get there, and today has backed off a hair. 

But we're on the brink. 

tvc_56134a9878b49c4fd70206ec8004238c.png

I update this chart and others regularly in the Liquidity Traderreports. It's pretty critical stuff.

Meanwhile, today's ES fucutures chart is still full of criss crossing channels. I'd be surprised if there's much movement in today's half day session ending at 1PM in New York, so that Wall Street can get out of town early. 

Ho Ho. 

tvc_6d860cae02a869b3a34bda1860bb06d8.png

I would note that cycle projections have been utterly useless over the past couple of days. The moves are news driven, mostly when the news is at least mildly surprising, even if it shouldn't be. 

At the moment, near 7:10 AM in NY the ES has edged below an uptrend channel, possibly establishing a new downtrend channel. They only need to break through 3691 this hour to invalidate that. The trendline drops to 3689 in the first hour of NY trading. 

The next step for any upmove would necessarily be to clear 3695, and then, finally 3770. That would put the ES on course for a move to 3720.

But if that new trendline stays intact, then the targe could be 3675-80. It would only get interesting on the downside if they dropped below that. Then Monday could be fun. 

Those are the possibilities. But the most likely scenario is for prices to trickle sideways. 

Stay safe and enjoy your holiday. And to

The few, the proud, the Stoolies,

I thank you for your interest in my random observations as I chronicle my thoughts. I look forward to hearing more, from more of you, someday!  

Djien dobry! 

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Excellent question. Where they gonna flee to? Buying "stuff?" Fine. You exchange cash for "stuff." But whoever sold you the "stuff," whether stocks, bonds, real estate, or guns and canned goods, now h

I was in the business then. There are often correlations between different eras because the shorter term cycles tend to be pretty consistent. Especially the 6 month cycle. The Fed wasn't printing mone

Merry all the stuff and happy more of it. 

Happy Holidays to all!

I too fear that Jan 21 will only be a day of HOPE... Hope is a traders worst enemy...Hope is a word that describes one of many potential futures..fear is the opposite...I fear this is just the beginning of the end...so much is broke... i fear 2021 will be even more desperate...But I do HOPE that i am wrong...and given my track record of predictions (including trading) we probably come out of this like a bat out of HELL (pun intended).... I truly HOPE so... Going to spend some time on  Xmas with my Children and Grandchildren on ZOOM... again ..Happy Holiday's enjoy the "TIME" and stay safe ...especially if your old like me.

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7 minutes ago, No Einstein said:

Lee how is that sore throat....?  and what is the outlook for your vaccination?

Good question. I was just approved for my long term visa, but I don't have the ID card yet. Once I get that, I am required to join their health system. Then I guess I can get vaccinated. There's really no information yet. They start vacinating health care providers and the elderly next week. But that's just a pilot. The EU is doing that uniformly. Then it's up to the individual nations. 

 

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

I wish you the best possible holiday under the circumstances, and thanks for even stopping in to see what's going on here!

At least there's finally light at the end of the tunnel, as long as we get to the other side of this black hole on January 21. I'm not entirely sure that we will. 

The stock and bond markets also seem to have some doubt. The 10 year yield tested the recent high yesterday. It's didn't quite get there, and today has backed off a hair. 

But we're on the brink. 

tvc_56134a9878b49c4fd70206ec8004238c.png

I update this chart and others regularly in the Liquidity Traderreports. It's pretty critical stuff.

Meanwhile, today's ES fucutures chart is still full of criss crossing channels. I'd be surprised if there's much movement in today's half day session ending at 1PM in New York, so that Wall Street can get out of town early. 

Ho Ho. 

tvc_6d860cae02a869b3a34bda1860bb06d8.png

I would note that cycle projections have been utterly useless over the past couple of days. The moves are news driven, mostly when the news is at least mildly surprising, even if it shouldn't be. 

At the moment, near 7:10 AM in NY the ES has edged below an uptrend channel, possibly establishing a new downtrend channel. They only need to break through 3691 this hour to invalidate that. The trendline drops to 3689 in the first hour of NY trading. 

The next step for any upmove would necessarily be to clear 3695, and then, finally 3770. That would put the ES on course for a move to 3720.

But if that new trendline stays intact, then the targe could be 3675-80. It would only get interesting on the downside if they dropped below that. Then Monday could be fun. 

Those are the possibilities. But the most likely scenario is for prices to trickle sideways. 

Stay safe and enjoy your holiday. And to

The few, the proud, the Stoolies,

I thank you for your interest in my random observations as I chronicle my thoughts. I look forward to hearing more, from more of you, someday!  

Djien dobry! 

"At least there's finally light at the end of the tunnel, as long as we get to the other side of this black hole on January 21. I'm not entirely sure that we will.  "

Curious about your thoughts with this statement. You have called the political events perfectly over the last 4 years.  Have a wonderful holidays.

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 I think we'll get to January 21, but there will be a long term struggle between the forces of rationality and irrationality, between those who belive in constitutional government of laws, and those who believe in authoritarianism.

Foreign actors who are up to no good have infiltrated the systems of government throughout the US at every level. There's a political party in the US that doesn't believe in or want democracy, and millions of Americans support that party.

This is a fight for the soul of society and culture. The forces of evil have a foothold all over the world, and especially in the US.

There are hard days ahead. Those of us who believe in democracy and the rule of law, will need to fight for it every day. This fight will go on forever, but our circumstances now are particularly critical. Corrupt forces have been in the ascendancy for the past couple of decades, and they've reached critical mass, just as they did in the 1930s. We're at an inflection point. 

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