Guest Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Another wallowy day here, only on the downside as opposed to wallowy on the upside yesterday. Fairly low volume again, everyone using peripheral vision to suss out what their neighbour's doing... The big 4 banks and newscorp leading the index down. Golds are mixed (read flat). I'm hoping today is a precursor to a resumption of the downtrend but more wallowing is not out of the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted March 4, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Plunger: Go buy some physical gold and silver first. My gold coins are doing fine. My gold stocks are getting croaked. Too many weak hands in the stocks. Might take awhile for them to recover. In the meantime, when the dollar falls off a cliff, your gold coins will be appreciating in real dollar terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Hey Guys, Short and sweet. Still long RYVYX. Trim Tabs went fully bullish today from cautiously bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Cash, dear Stoolies, is king. I hate to say it, but I suspect that this market will finish by gutting everyone. I believe that Merciless did the right thing when he just cashed out. In the end, he may well be the last man standing. Perhaps. Although I, for one, believe that we will experience FEED stoked hyperinflation before we experience deflation. Under that scenario, gold is king. Or Springfiled products with extra ammo. Actually, both will be interchangeable. Hard call for better ROI. There's just no way that the FEED allows this thing to spin down the bowl. For evidence, did you check out the most recent M3 results? I am a full-on Doug Noland disciple and I can't see any other way out of his credit mess except to state that inflation is going to the moon! Current M3 annualizes to over $1Trillion (said with left pinky finger extended to corner of mouth and shaking slightly for effect). That's with a "T". See the dollar today? Methinks others are catching on. I will predict a full tripling of interest rates over the next three years (mainly to attract capital rather than to stem inflation) leading to much higher gold and silver prices. And all other commodities, except lean pork bellies. Still bearish on those. Plunger, welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Thanks Wndy - that's what I'll do. What I was actually looking for was a leveraged way to play the POG without the risks associated with the miners. Just stumbled upon PMPSX at the start of the research process..Plunger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 By the way, I forgot to add that I think we are going higher for the pre-war rally and this giant plunge that some of you keep waiting for is like waiting for Godot. It isn't going to happen because John Q and his ilk are morons who are not going to hit the sell button no matter what. Sure we can go a lot lower, but it's going to be death by a thousand cuts. But please remember, I'm just a sleezy mortgage banker who doesn't know shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Ugh. At the risk of being attacked, before you take the proceeds of your home sale and go skipping down to your local dealer to buy gold coins which have a huge bid/ask spread, are difficult to store and guard and keep safe, etc, check into other very good inflation hedges if that is your bent. PCRIX is a fund (PIMCO CommodityRealReturn Institutional) run by PIMCO where you won't get killed, and it is diversified across all commodity classes and not just "the one", and if we have raw materials inflation you will get your reward. If we get no raw materials inflation, at least you'll get a small interest distribution from the TIPS they own in the background to underlie the commodities contracts. If the USD gets killed you will get your reward. And it is relatively liquid, with no bid/ask cost, just a commission to get in or out. Because it is the institutional version, the expense ratio is very low. Normally $5M minimum to buy the fund, at Schwab they have a $1M min, not much help. At Brown you can buy it with $100K min for a $5 commission. At Ameritrade you can buy it for $17.99 commission with $2500 min. At Vanguard you can buy it for a $35 commission, $5K min, through their brokerage fund supermarket. Probably available elsewhere but often high limits are set because they want to discourage non accredited investors since it is not a standard asset class. They also offer a class D fund to be made available in the fund supermarkets at the major brokers for "no transaction fee". This of course carries a higher expense ratio, at least 50-75 bp higher. Symbol will be PCRDZ, when it is released. It is currently available at a couple of brokers, such as Quick & Reilly, but requires you to call the fund desk to find it (it is not shown anywhere online). It can be found on their computers through a cusip search, 722005550. Class A/B/C funds are useless, they have loads and are bought through salesmen. If all else fails, you can buy direct from http://www.pimcofunds.com and you can read the prospectus there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lethal Dose Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 It was possible that the FED could have raised rates more when they had the chance but to prevent collapse the rates would have had to been lowered further anyways. I'm no fan of Greenspan, but to believe he caused this is nuts... Just an example of how the blame gets shifted from the cause to the result or symptom to perpetuate the inflate or die religion... It's the outrage of "If they would have run things better "I" could have died rich, but now I'm going to die poor" "boy am I mad at having to accept my fate, and here I thought my offspring were going to get stuck holding the bag" Hypertig: This is so right on. As myopic as Al Green has ALWAYS BEEN, to blame any of the coming debacle on any one person is most simplistic. Each of us plays his own hand. And though the manipulations and interventions may flatten some folk under the big steamroller, in the end, each of us is master of his or her own fate. Observe. Learn. Act. Accept responsibility. Trade Safe- LD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 he who trades not on a disciplined plan but based on news, events, tips, and "I think" gets slaughtered and will only last a few rounds in "the game". Its as simple as that. Trade your plan, don't think your plan or else you'll outwit yourself instead of the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Off topic- Is there a way to empty my hard drive? I am donating my computor to a charity and want to empty all my files before presenting it to them. Re-format the drive and it's done. How do I do dat der thing? Sorry TE, had to leave. Looks like you got taken care of. BW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 It was possible that the FED could have raised rates more when they had the chance but to prevent collapse the rates would have had to been lowered further anyways. I'm no fan of Greenspan, but to believe he caused this is nuts... Just an example of how the blame gets shifted from the cause to the result or symptom to perpetuate the inflate or die religion... It's the outrage of "If they would have run things better "I" could have died rich, but now I'm going to die poor" "boy am I mad at having to accept my fate, and here I thought my offspring were going to get stuck holding the bag" Hypertig: This is so right on. As myopic as Al Green has ALWAYS BEEN, to blame any of the coming debacle on any one person is most simplistic. Each of us plays his own hand. And though the manipulations and interventions may flatten some folk under the big steamroller, in the end, each of us is master of his or her own fate. Observe. Learn. Act. Accept responsibility. Trade Safe- LD You guys are being way too easy on the Greenman. He is responsible because he fasilitated both excesses in Washington and Wall Street. He is a total egomanias who actually thought that he alone could control the economy regardless of evidence to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Got PINGED and PONGED today. I suspect he did as well. at least he was wearing a aweater when they nabbed him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Plunger, welcome to this motley? crew... There already IS a housing glut on the market in some places, Plunger. At least maybe here in Seattle. HRFF's top notch real estate agent fishing pal called him FUR the FURst time EVER in 15 years complaining of same and wondering if The BARE knew of any suck OOOOPS!!! buyers. He had LOTS of houses sitting on the market that were "taking too long to move" he said. He's worth millions - on paper, in properties, mostly. Just bought himself a 600k home - at the top of the market and noted his sizeable mortgage thereon. Gold coins? Ya better buy an AK-47 to go along w 'em. Again, all you folks (SNOT u, Plunger) here babbling merrily away about money supply expanding (Doc, FUR example says his FEED index is on the rise and nearing "breakout" again - no Doc, BARE is NOT making fun of you - he has a legitimate question - read on) had better get thee hence to COMSTOCK PARTNERS and read THEIR take on the "expansion" ass y'all label it, of money supply, etc. Seems THEY have a quite different view entirely, butt HRFF ain't no economista and he might be missing something that means THEIR views are congruent with YOURS, here in that regard. HERE'S THE LINK. Go to this page then click on the four categories at the end of the article: http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act...roup=Home&aol=1 Now, The BARE is confused by these OSTENSIBLY wildly varying opinions. Someone hASS to be more correct. Who is it? Is money supply expanding or is it contracting, as the COMSTOCK boys seem to clearly suggest it is. In any event, it looks like anUDDER one of us has "bit the dust" and backed away from trading, fearing a mASSive ramp job. This is the tricky, shakeout stage of the market. Ms Mkt wants ass many bears out and as many fools in - on the long side, naturally ass possible beFUR taking her down. The notion of a huge, pre war rally is, again, in this oberver's estimation ridiculous. WHO is going to FUEL it, please? WHO? The major institutions? Hardly. Most of them are sitting on their thumbs awaiting clearer signals and war related developments. Most of them, as Gene Inger notes, have, by THIS time, ALREADY made their moves. FURRY FURriners? Hardly. They're leaving in droves, allegedly. Joe Sixpack? He doesn't have MUSCLE any more. PERIOD. FURther, he's been LEAVING the market - witness fund redemption data. Who's left? Possibly Uncle Sam. If Uncle Sam were REALLY interested in much higher stock prices we would have HAD our pre-war govt-induced rally already to get the markets much higher in case the war went badly. The govt is only interested in CONTROLLING the rate of descent or, maybe STOPPING it around these levels IF it can even DO that. The Shrub knows he's made half the world nervous as cats in a roomful of rocking chairs and that's hurting business and the stock market. He's known that FUR simply MONTHS. The chart chasers? They've been blown around like straw on the wind, rotating in and out, getting eaten alive by volatility, mostly. They don't have the MOXIE by themselves even if the charts to show "breakouts". Who, ASSks The BARE, is left to FUEL such a blowoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Another wallowy day here, only on the downside as opposed to wallowy on the upside yesterday. Fairly low volume again, everyone using peripheral vision to suss out what their neighbour's doing... The big 4 banks and newscorp leading the index down. Golds are mixed (read flat). I'm hoping today is a precursor to a resumption of the downtrend but more wallowing is not out of the question... G'Day aussiebear, I read a month or so ago that the Perth Mint|Gold Corporation was going to introduce a synthetic stock on the ASX that would be highly liquid but be based on the price of gold. Have you heard of anything like this? Regards, TDBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 4, 2003 Report Share Posted March 4, 2003 Since Dec 2 down: 8 weeks up: 2 weeks flat: 2 weeks Looks like a frick'n overall downtrend to me that has no catalyst whatsoever for stopping anytime soon! As SG would say, "Keep it simple, because it is". Keep it simple and you'll do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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