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So the Debate Went Well 9/30/20

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Overseas investors apparently were not impressed. Although here at 4:20 AM NY time, they've cut the loss in the fucutures in half. 

Again, interesting perspective from the 2 hour bars. They cleared the big downtrend channel twice, early and late. They couldn't stick, so after hours, they broke this week's uptrend. Now, we're in a no man's land. 

Two numbers to watch on the upside are 3320 and 3335. If they can't clear those, then this new little downtrend channel is confirmed. On the other hand, if they drop below 3280, before NY opens, then we could be in crash mode. 

tvc_e5bef078e5f8b481b2b40c071664ab79.png

 

And the 1 hour bars. If you consider the whole width of the chart, it looks like a huge base, if they hold above 3293. If it doesn't, then they'll probably target 3270 or 3245 next. 

tvc_efc74c4cb6c2ad9017d7621acd3e8490.png

 

Today is a huge day in terms of liquidity. About as bearish as it gets.  

And by the way, if Nancy and Mr. Minuskaching do manage to get a new pandemiconomic relief bill passed, it will be very bearish for stocks. 

We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October.

But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. There’s no visibility. We don’t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. That’s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fed’s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect.

Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we don’t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things.

Here they are.

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Overseas investors apparently were not impressed. Although here at 4:20 AM NY time, they've cut the loss in the fucutures in half.  Again, interesting perspective from the 2 hour bars. They clear

Yes I had enough of thrashing about and reconstructed my trading system using weekly chart trends instead of daily.  If the stock gains 50% I sell half, otherwise I wait for a sell signal (trend chang

LeeWhee was a great long term position trader.  KWave was a great day and swing trader. 

Ah, yes. In my day trading yesterday, I went about it like a deranged fool. 83 trades in a dozen or so different symbols. The vast majority were longs. Constantly whipsawed. Nothing worked. Ended up with a profit of $65. That works out to about 75 cents a trade.  

Low margins? I follow the discount retailer model. I made up for it in volume.  😄😄😄

The last series of signals on about 8 open trades were all sells in the last hour. I went out flat. But no shorts. Nothing popped up in my alert setups. The overnight selloff was not foreseen. So much for that. 

I just ran my daily screens, and again, longs outnumber shorts about 3.5 to 1 on the daily charts. Meaningless. 

 

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Yesterday, bleach. Today baking soda. 

If you bought $10,000 of Church and Dwight back in the 80s, today you would be worth $5.4 million. 

Stonks for the long haul. 

They always went up.  

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Yes I had enough of thrashing about and reconstructed my trading system using weekly chart trends instead of daily.  If the stock gains 50% I sell half, otherwise I wait for a sell signal (trend change) on the weekly chart.  I'm only doing longs in stocks $1 per share or less and only $1k per company.  I haven't been doing it for that long so not sure about profits but at least I don't have to watch the screen too much and most my decisions are made on the weekend.  The rest of the time I get to do gardening, go to the gym and think about life, the universe and everything. 😏

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Day trading is addictive. Like video games. Good gamers make good day traders. See patterns and react. 

Typically not my style, but since I'm confined to a particular location these days, why not! 

I think that not losing money on a churn day like yesterday is not a bad thing. Great traders can make money on days like yesterday.  Good traders stay solvent on days like yesterday and are on the right side on rare trend days.  BTFD and STFR.  

No doubt, swing trades, such as what you're doing, and what I feature in Technical Trader is a lot less work and time. And probably just as profitable if not more so over the long haul. 

Or you coulda bought a baking soda stock 35 years ago and done nothing after that and have done even better.  

Bleach and baking soda. Whoda thunk? 

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Not big on bleach but baking soda's a wonderful product!  I use it in the laundry wash, as a body scrub and as a general all round cleaning product.  I suspect people may even use it in baking?  😁

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Yes, I started out as a day trader in the halcyon days of the late 90s and didn't do all that well.  Just not quick enough to react and the trading platforms were a bit dodgy in those days too.  My trading ranges have gradually increased.  Give me a few more years and I'll no doubt be using monthly charts ..

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After reviewing the entire output of my screens I have a ready list of 27 shorts and 10 longs today.  

Interesting. First time to come up with lots of shorts.  

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It started with a lurch at 2:23 PM. I was starting to set up automatic sell triggers. The first one got triggered BOOM. And it was too late for the rest. I have only one short on. Waiting for a bounce to see if I can get a few more. 

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