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Crossing Patterns Confuse the Defense 9/25/20

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I'm down to 3 longs, no shorts at the bell.  Weird to go into the weekend long. I will probably regret it Monday morning.  I was trading all day today, which I rarely do, but wanted to test out s

15 minutes ago, Hobbiewood said:

Didn’t you say that is a precursor to a steep decline?

Nope. All rallies start with short squeezes. Tops usually are marked by complacency for weeks or months. 

I'm lightening up going into the close. I'll hold on to some of my longs, and would like to add a short or two for the weekend, but most of the candidates look like they've put in short term lows. There are a couple that have some potential though. 

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I'm down to 3 longs, no shorts at the bell.  Weird to go into the weekend long. I will probably regret it Monday morning. 

I was trading all day today, which I rarely do, but wanted to test out some ideas for Technical Trader. Mea culpa for not posting the QE update.  I'll post it tomorrow morning by the time those of you in Amerika get to your screen. 

And so for the high holy moly day, May the Load, Jaysus Powell bless you and keep you wholely solvent.  

And always remember, Sell Rosh, Buy Yom! 

If you are Jewish, Gut Yontif and have an easy fast!  

 

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Merck's MK4482 (was EIDD-2801) has a lot of very important people set to benefit if Phase II trials go well (primary end point in October and study end in November). Cheap to make, kills SARS-CoV-2 and oral i.e. all the drawbacks of Remdesivir this drug does not have. Some posit it may be a mutagen. We'll see. But given how high up some of the people involved are who are involved in this drug it will likely get the benefit of the doubt from the FDA if the results are even marginally acceptable (there are some very irregular things going on in the funding/development). Best of all - they have no liability if they release the drug and they've already got doses ready to ship. Should be interesting. DYODD.

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1 hour ago, fxfox said:

Wishfull thinking?

I don't do wishful thinking. I look at the data. I analyze it. I come to a conclusion about the outlook. And I create a trading plan to take advantage of that outlook. 

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Facts can change of course as policy makers and traders make adjustments to current conditions and external events and trends. That's why I update the Technical Trader every week, and post new reports in Liquidity Trader 7-8 times each month.  The facts that we've had for the past few months have been telling us that the September-October turn of the month days should be bearish. Get the whole story at Liquidity Trader. 90 day risk free trial! 

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We have known for a couple of months that there would be a mountain of Treasury supply hitting the market at the end of September. We also knew that Fed QE would be far from adequate to absorb this supply. So I have expected something bearish for stocks at the end of September. This could spill over into the first week of October.

But then things get hairy for bears, with potentially happy days for bulls. Unfortunately, we have a little problem this week. There’s no visibility. We don’t know what they have planned for the next couple weeks. That’s different from usual, where we can usually see ahead for a week or two because we know the Fed’s QE schedule, and also pretty much know how much Treasury supply to expect.

Now, thanks to the exigencies of the past pandemiconomic US Treasury fund raising back in March and April, we don’t have that luxury on Treasury supply, which forces us to surmise some things.

Here they are.

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