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The Green Team Rules, But Red Is in the Background 9/23/20

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The uptrend from yesterday's low looks solid, with a 5 day cycle projection of 3330-40. But first, trend resistance is suggested at 3316-17, and 3325-30. But even reaching 3340 might not give the bulls a victory in the big picture. 

Hourly: 

tvc_9dbedc0a29e27da9b139d0b51a5e7cd0.png

 

2 hr bars- Looking at the lower indicators, the suggestion here is that this rally will take a day or two to top out. 

tvc_dedee845e87e4e92f377d25f560c2754.png

 

Finally, the 30 minute bars. 2-3 day cycle projection is 3330. But that cycle isn't cycling at the moment. We can see shorter and longer. That one is in trending mode. However, there should be a little downdraft to end the cycle later today.   

tvc_8c86cb6c3338157371bd1cde2b754d36.png

 

For the big picture, posted each weekend:

An important low is due right now but bears have a chance to break the market. This report shows you the setup and gives you picks to play both ways. Current long/short swing trade chart picks are up 6.9% (100% cash basis) on average, with an average holding period of 3 weeks. This week I added 3 short and 3 long picks. That leaves the list with 6 shorts and 10 longs.

Technical Trader subscribers, click here to download the report.

Not a subscriber? Try Lee Adler’s Technical Trader risk free for 90 days!  

 

 

 

 

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I want to short GS but don't have the guts to pull the trigger to do that. It's like shorting the antichrist and being afraid of what will happen if they try to get even. 

Tokyo hits the 48% seroprevalence mark with a low fatality rate. A drop in new cases seems to indicate they have reached herd immunity: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796

My screens spit out a couple of bullish charts that are interesting here. LLY pulled back to its two hunnert. If it holds, it's a good BTFD. If not. oh well. 

In case you missed this last night, this is big. 

I received the email yesterday. 

  

11 hours ago, DrStool said:

Whoa. Bearish.

Dear Client,

As you’ve likely observed, elevated option implied volatilities indicate that the markets will be confronting elevated volatility both before and after the November 2020 election. IBKR shares that sentiment and believe it’s appropriate to start controlling leverage in a measured fashion in advance.

Consequently, to protect IBKR and its customers, IBKR will increase margin requirements by as much as 35% above normal margin requirements leading up to the November U.S. election. To illustrate, consider a Reg. T margin account with stock XYZ having an Initial Margin requirement of 50% and a Maintenance Margin requirement of 25%. With the increase fully implemented, the new requirements would be 67.5% Initial and 33.75% Maintenance. Accounts subject to risk based margin will have their scanning ranges increased in a similar manner.

This will be implemented gradually each day, increasing Initial margin requirements from normal levels starting September 28th to a rate that will be 35% higher by October 23rd. Maintenance margin requirements will increase in a similar manner between October 5th and October 30th. The new requirements will be implemented each day, after the market closes in New York, and will be effective the next trading day.

IBKR may make additional changes to the margin on certain products, or all products, depending on volatility. This includes changes built into the standard margin model as well as any new house margin requirements that may be imposed.

Interactive Brokers Client Services

 

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When this thing unravels, SIPC won't save us, and FDIC won't save us. I believe that we already had a systemic failure in March, and it took $2 trillion of Fed printed confetti to reverse the implosion. I'm not sure the next one will be reversible. 

Where's Bob! 

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I want to short GS but don't have the guts to pull the trigger to do that. It's like shorting the antichrist and being afraid of what will happen if they try to get even. 

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