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Higher Low But Not Higher High Yet 9/14/20

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Friday's low on the ES was a fraction higher than Tuesday's, but as of 5 AM in New York, they hadn't cleard Fridays high, and there's been a slight downtick from the test an hour ago. Hourly indicators are still bullish, but they've paused and a deeper downtick this hour could get them to roll over, signaling a 2 day cycle high in the pre market as well as potentially a final downdraft in the 5 day cycle. That cycle is ideally due for a low on Tuesday, but a low today is certainly also possible.

If they hold above 3360 here, bulls are in charge. Even if they pull back to 3330, I think bulls would still have the upper hand. 

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The Fed pumps in a ton of money today via the first of the usual monthly MBS settlements that happen in the middle of each month. 

Mr. Minus-chin Conspires With QE for September Happy Ending 

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Also, denial that money printing is bullish, and devotion to the ideal that markets should be free and fair is bound to get you in trouble. Good traders don't give a shit about that stuff. They just f

Marketwatch says "vaccine optimism." To Bloomberg it's "deals optimism." WSJ says it's the Oracle Tiktok deal. 

Fuckers have no fucking clue. 

It's MBS settlement day. 

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3 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Quelle est la raison du jour? 

OK, I'll play. Either Oracle winning the Tik Tok sweepstakes, or perhaps because Dave is watching?

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/2859754/a-warning-to-the-suits-im-watching-today.-dont-pull-anything-funny-and-try-to-start-selling.

I curse whoever brought attention to the Davey Day Trader Global the other day. Now, I can't look away. On the other hand, this forum generously provides me with a platform to say stupid things too, so I guess Dave and I have something in common after all. 🤡 

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EMA 200 hourly serves as good res so far. Once cleared, kaboom to the upside. Remember: The MBS dough isn‘t always put to work at the first day entirely.

This looks more and more like a bottom building process. Somehow the bear narrative seems to be that we already made a major top in go down from September on. Based on EW stuff or wottnot. Thing is: Since 2009 EVERY technical stuff, which is partly from the voodoo department, got killed and doesn‘t really work anymore.

We will make a new ATH before the election.

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I don't know about that. TA keeps me on the right side of the market most of the time.  Trend following has worked really well. I don't need to be early at a top. I need to see clear and convincing evidence, and then take a ride for most of the move.   

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6 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I don't know about that. TA keeps me on the right side of the market most of the time.  Trend following has worked really well. I don't need to be early at a top. I need to see clear and convincing evidence, and then take a ride for most of the move.   

Your stuff seems to work quite well, but many other TA things which used to work before 2009 don‘t work anymore. Has to do with those hard and quick momentum crashes. Charts get effed up so to say.

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Can't be rigid. It's always about looking at multiple time frames with indicators and moving averages timed to those periods. RIgidly sticking to one set of numbers is bound to fail. Although it can work if you zoom in and out using hourly, daily, weekly, monthly. 

No doubt there are surprises, but it still works more often than not.

In addition, liquidity analysis is necessary for context. 

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