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The All Important Level That Must Be Retaken 9/9/20

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It's 3345 on the ES on a daily closing basis. If they get back above that, bulls are still in charge for now. But if they lose it, it sets up something much bigger on the downside. 

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It may be a little early to conclude this but apparently it really was a shakeout, and the indicators didn't show a bigger decline for a reason.  

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This market is tough. I have been goofing around with EW a bit lately for fun. Had posted a 60M ES chart last week and mentioned 3580-ish looked like a brick wall, and the wall held on first trip up. Here it is again. Looking at today's non-bearish action and drawing from that pivot at 3447, there's a Make or Break line starting at 3469. Also 2.618x the move off the overnight low of 3295 to Wave 1 top at 3354 takes it to about 3474, so maybe . . . 

I was originally thinking maybe a couple day rip-your-face-off rally, then back down, but dang. This move up today seems about as ferocious as the down and has me wondering. I guess that's what rip your face off means. Lost here, as usual. Right now am thinking (hoping?) that assuming we don't turn back down today we could at best maybe double top at 3447, at worst visit that 3469-74 area by tomorrow or Friday, then resume the decline. But if we rip up thru that MOB, the 4.250 Fib is about 3569, close to the previous highs, and likely more of what we have been used to last few months. And if 4.250 is only the end of a Wave 3, then the end of a Wave 5 might be really unpleasant for bears. I'm hoping to be wrong again, as usual. 

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