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3520 Here We Come 8/28/20

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41 minutes ago, PullMyFinger said:

I have kinda been wondering the same thing. Marty Armstrong has been saying there is a good chance we go down hard on the Dow into October starting next week, or up into October and then down hard. Next week is one of his turn weeks so down in September is his more likely scenario. 

But he has been pretty off on the size and scope of this rally. He thought we would bounce into July at best. I have never known him to be this wrong for this long before. 

1929 and 9/11 Bounce lasted 5/6 Months and that's where I am looking for the top.

1st week or 2nd week in September fits nicely, Boat will fully laden with low cash holdings with novice newcomers, Stocks can only go up

What can go wrong?

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This is different. This is classic state sponsored fascist violence.  

7 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Trump his $1.6 trillion in cash in his Treasury kitty. That's what can go wrong. 

Could he be using that $1.6 Trillion as a deterrent from any large  players trying to go short?

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37 minutes ago, DrStool said:

He's a private equity guy. His circle of friends are private equity and other people of wealth and power. He's not an academic. He would have no reason, practical or theoretical, to crash the market. 

Yes. Absolutely correct. He is part of the game, part of the club so to say.

 

There is a reason why there is never a guy like the one from the Union Head of the FED. That guy with the fat glasses is more like a FED head (notice him saying to the Union guy „you are not a Professional“ 🙄)

 

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44 minutes ago, DrStool said:

He's a private equity guy. His circle of friends are private equity and other people of wealth and power. He's not an academic. He would have no reason, practical or theoretical, to crash the market. 

The reason would be political - to oust the greatest threat to central bank independence since the creation of the Federal Reserve, and potentially, constitutional order.

I'm also not entirely convinced that private equity wouldn't welcome a crash from time to time: improves the terms they can demand for an investment round to distressed companies. Their time horizons are longer than quarterly preoccupation of public markets.

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18 minutes ago, Jimi said:

The reason would be political - to oust the greatest threat to central bank independence since the creation of the Federal Reserve, and potentially, constitutional order.

I'm also not entirely convinced that private equity wouldn't welcome a crash from time to time: improves the terms they can demand for an investment round to distressed companies. Their time horizons are longer than quarterly preoccupation of public markets.

I agree, and take it a step further, many dont think Powelll and his "friends" are smart...but i will tell you they are smart enough to fear what trump may do to their system, if he breaks their cookie jar they are all fucked too

which on second thought is pretty much what you just wrote

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7 minutes ago, No Einstein said:

I agree, and take it a step further, many dont think Powelll and his "friends" are smart...but i will tell you they are smart enough to fear what trump may do to their system, if he breaks their cookie jar they are all fucked too

What about the Crash of Y2K which also was an election year?

Was Fed in Trouble?

Does it look like another Y2K Bubble?

To me March Crash was like 1998 and bounce is on steroid with new Investors money.

Powell is unlucky. 

 

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21 minutes ago, Jimi said:

The reason would be political - to oust the greatest threat to central bank independence since the creation of the Federal Reserve, and potentially, constitutional order.

I'm also not entirely convinced that private equity wouldn't welcome a cash from time to time: improves the terms they can demand for an investment round to distressed companies. Their time horizons are longer than quarterly preoccupation of public markets.

I guess there is nothing wrong with a little bit of front running.....

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3 minutes ago, jp6 said:

What about the Crash of Y2K which also was an election year?

Was Fed in Trouble?

Does it look like another Y2K Bubble?

To me March Crash was like 1998 and bounce is on steroid with new Investors money.

Powell is unlucky. 

 

the point is...this is an "existential threat" no comparison to other crisis

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BULLARD: MONETARY POLICY IS 'JUST RIGHT,' WILL STAY LOW FOR A LONG TIME

BULLARD: ECONOMY IN RECOVERY MODE, RECESSION IS OVER

FED'S BULLARD SAYS WE'RE NOT EVEN THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT RAISING RATES

FED'S BULLARD SAYS THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST QUARTERS EVER FOR US GDP

 

My college degree in finance was a complete waste of money......................

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I have a question for you more technical day trader types. I haven't engaged in that in many years. My recollection when I did was that the futures led the cash index on the S&P. I have a delayed feed but it seems to me like the cash market leads around the futures and there are weird 'non-confirming' behaviors. Like right now where the cash is making new highs but the futures not. Similarly I'll see the cash start the decline well before the futures and catch itself before the futures stop declining. Is that because it takes much longer to execute all the cash trades? Is the spread an indicator of direction at all? Thanks in advance! 

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22 minutes ago, No Einstein said:

I agree, and take it a step further, many dont think Powelll and his "friends" are smart...but i will tell you they are smart enough to fear what trump may do to their system, if he breaks their cookie jar they are all fucked too

which on second thought is pretty much what you just wrote

They ARE smart. Definitely. Same like with the guys from McKinsey: Assholes at heart, but smart. They are good, very good in what they are doing. Same counts for Goldman prop traders: Assholes at heart, but good, VERY good. 

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9 minutes ago, No Einstein said:

the point is...this is an "existential threat" no comparison to other crisis

Yes. The FED as an institution is under threat. Its further existence. It is as simple as that. During 2000 to 2003 the FED was not under threat, not at a single moment.

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Trump is likely to issue an Executive order to send everyone like $1000 before the election. It isn't Constitutional but Treasury will oblige. 

By the way unconstitutional isn't actually illegal. There is no statute that I know of that prevents the President from bypassing congress to disperse funds.

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