DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Yesterday we left with a couple of the intraday cycle projections pointing to around 3440 on the ES fucutures. Well here were are in the wee hourse, and voila! Done! Will it still be there in 5 hours or so when NY opens? Stay tuned. The 2-3 day cycle projection now points to 3460. The cycle indicators say this move is done for now. I'm not so sure. If they hold any pullback at or above 3335, I'd think that that projection is doable today. Here's the 30 minute bar chart to illustrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 2-3 day cycle projection 3418. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Lee, Want to thank you for your comments. Greatly appreciated. I am hoping you are offered an interview. They have a very sizable audience. My concern is that many are being misinformed about the accounting structure and strong dollar thesis versus the real world implications of Fed Policy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Strong dollar? But the dollar is weak! I don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 The dollar is down 10% against the euro since I've been here in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 This is what I do not understand. This tweet is being liked and high fived by all these followers. It refers to this notion that the Fed's actions are not actually inflating asset prices. "Yep. Turn out if you make people think you are flooding the market with the liquidity (even though you are not actually doing so) it leads to a change in behavior...for a while...until they realize you are bluffing" Yet when you actually respond or educate with facts, it falls on deaf ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Yep. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 This idea that the Fed isn't actually printing money is nuts. Jeff Snider does the same thing. I stopped posting that stuff. If you track the H41 and H8 every week, or once a month with charts, you can actually see the money being created and moving into the system either through the markets or the Treasury. There's absolutely no mystery here. It's weekly published data. It's there for anybody who cares to look at it. The other idea that because it ends up in the Fed's reserve accounts it's somehow locked up is also stupid. These people never had a basic accounting course and don't understand the simplest concepts of double entry bookkeeping. The Fed's reserve liability is the bank's cash asset. They can do whatever the fornicate they want with it. When they spend it, it goes from one bank account to another, likely in a different bank, but remains fixed on the Fed's balance sheet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, DrStool said: Yep. Frustrating. Oy Vey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Just the idea that there's no inflation is frustrating. CPI inflation is low because it does not include house prices. But housing inflation has persistently been 4-6% per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 Beware. Dinosaur pattern on the 5 minute bars. They usually resolve upward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 1 hour ago, DrStool said: Just the idea that there's no inflation is frustrating. CPI inflation is low because it does not include house prices. But housing inflation has persistently been 4-6% per year. I totally agree. Bill Fleckenstein and others have made similar comments. Hedonic and other statistical changes were implemented for a reason. The pot of water is slowly boiling and many do not understand the temperature is rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 CPI was never intended to be an economic measure of general inflation. Its was always for the indexing of labor contracts, government salaries and beneifits. House prices were in the CPI until 1982. But with raging housing inflation skewing union labor contracts and social security benefits into the stratosphere, the Reagan Administration removed actual house prices from CPI in 1982. I have been writing about this for years and years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurntOnce Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 the second i finally go long the nasdaq it'll tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FranciscoTheMan Posted August 25, 2020 Report Share Posted August 25, 2020 24 minutes ago, BurntOnce said: the second i finally go long the nasdaq it'll tank. Stonks only go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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