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DrStool

USD Collapse- What's More Important. Trade, Finance, or Trading Flows? 7/28/20

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Influences on USD include trade flows, including tourism, Financial flows, and pure trading flows. I've often wondered which is dominant.

Normally this time of year Americans are selling dollars and buying euros heavily because of travel. More Americans travel to EU than vice versa. Without that, you'd expect USD to be stronger than normal this year. But it's weaker. That leaves financial flows and trading flows. 

Obviously, there's a lot of buying of Treasuries. That would require foreigners to buy dollars. Again, it's not showing up in the USD price in other currencies. 

So by process of elimination,  this move is all about traders playing the charts. As losses mount for dollar paper holders, they're under pressure to sell the assets, i.e. Treasuries and US stocks, right?  So that should be bearish for those markets. 

What am I missing?

Dicsucs

tvc_c4874bb2d3fa3a5cfbfa6d0e07b0cac2.png

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Gold getting killed. US Doobber rallying. 

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26 minutes ago, SiP said:

Huge moves on sliver and gold

Sold all my position in Silver and some Gold. Should be able to pick it all up around $20 Next cycle down

use 29-july 2020 high.png

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OK. Do zobaczenia! Gotta finish a report! 

 

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ES bouncing bottom of channel here. 

tvc_928bae7e7795e1a421808c62ddb15ba5.png

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silver...gold.....pretty funny reactions

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Just now, jp6 said:

If Gold Takes out 1919 then Correction has started if not then retest of 1969 should happen. Silver Rocket ride is finish for now

Retest before August drop.png

 

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6 hours ago, DrStool said:

Influences on USD include trade flows, including tourism, Financial flows, and pure trading flows. I've often wondered which is dominant....................

 

 

what about oil....the petro-dollar is HUGE ....ever since the oil crash in April I have been musing about the effect the crash in petro-dollars would have on the dollar...over simplified to be sure..but it seems to me every country on earth has spent fewer of their dollars on oil which would, might, result in more dollars available in the system..supply and demand, more dollars available, dollar value drops.

I also wonder if  it would take time for those dollars to "pile up" in the system...thus the lag of just one month from oils crash in mid APRIL to the beginning of this down leg in the dollar which started in mid MAY... only one month...20 trading days

not saying it is the whole reason, but maybe a factor exacerbating the dollars weakness...

feedback required😉

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Just now, jp6 said:

Silver Chart with scenarios.

silver retest of July high.png

 

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22 minutes ago, No Einstein said:

what about oil....the petro-dollar is HUGE ....ever since the oil crash in April I have been musing about the effect the crash in petro-dollars would have on the dollar...over simplified to be sure..but it seems to me every country on earth has spent fewer of their dollars on oil which would, might, result in more dollars available in the system..supply and demand, more dollars available, dollar value drops.

I also wonder if  it would take time for those dollars to "pile up" in the system...thus the lag of just one month from oils crash in mid APRIL to the beginning of this down leg in the dollar which started in mid MAY... only one month...20 trading days

not saying it is the whole reason, but maybe a factor exacerbating the dollars weakness...

feedback required😉

Good stuff! 

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Mortimer lookin' good. 

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