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DrStool

Support Holds. Hourly Indicators Bullish Again 7/27/20

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Ah yes. The 236 year cycle.  

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I'm going to take a vacation.  

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Potatohead 

Dollar is falling because 

1. Europe and many countries are better preparre for covid19. 

2 US is in deep trouble with covid19. this means lower interest rate till 2025.

3 Europe just made a historic turn - EU created mutual bonds (debt) on last summit. They agreed to debt mutualisation, at least for covid19 grants. This means A. euro is safe B. there is new debt instrument to buy (rich countries could now buy euro debt instead of dollar debt) 

all in all, means euro is going higher. Many talks about 1.25 or even 1.35 for eurusd

 

and.... china is now longer buying dollar debt. Trade wars. 

 

This meams deep troubles for dollar. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, SiP said:

Potatohead 

Dollar is falling because 

1. Europe and many countries are better preparre for covid19. 

2 US is in deep trouble with covid19. this means lower interest rate till 2025.

3 Europe just made a historic turn - EU created mutual bonds (debt) on last summit. They agreed to debt mutualisation, at least for covid19 grants. This means A. euro is safe B. there is new debt instrument to buy (rich countries could now buy euro debt instead of dollar debt) 

all in all, means euro is going higher. Many talks about 1.25 or even 1.35 for eurusd

 

and.... china is now longer buying dollar debt. Trade wars. 

 

This meams deep troubles for dollar. 

 

 

Appreciate the comments. Was not aware of #3 and its impact.

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23 minutes ago, SiP said:

Potatohead 

Dollar is falling because 

1. Europe and many countries are better preparre for covid19. 

2 US is in deep trouble with covid19. this means lower interest rate till 2025.

3 Europe just made a historic turn - EU created mutual bonds (debt) on last summit. They agreed to debt mutualisation, at least for covid19 grants. This means A. euro is safe B. there is new debt instrument to buy (rich countries could now buy euro debt instead of dollar debt) 

all in all, means euro is going higher. Many talks about 1.25 or even 1.35 for eurusd

 

and.... china is now longer buying dollar debt. Trade wars. 

 

This meams deep troubles for dollar. 

 

 

That‘s a very good summary and I agree with it.

When EUR/USD clears congestion area 1.20/1.25 it will go to 1.50/1.60. We are right now in a mental transition phase. Soon folks will realize that they have to have European stocks, you can‘t have a 80% or so exposure to US stocks when the Dollar tumbles like a dove. So folks will reduce USD denominated exposure and built up much more exposure to European and Emerging Market stuff.

My scenerio is that there will be one last attempt to save the USD: When they come back from The Hamptons. But that will fail.

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Gold is all over the place on German TV this evening... It is one of the main themes on every news show.

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I better start hedging. I've dilly dallied too long already. 

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14 minutes ago, fxfox said:

Gold is all over the place on German TV this evening... It is one of the main themes on every news show.

Thats interesting since Gold made one year ago new all time highs in euro. 

Same in jpy, gbp etc

take a look at xaujpy xauchf xaugbp etc. 

 

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39 minutes ago, SiP said:

Potatohead 

Dollar is falling because 

1. Europe and many countries are better preparre for covid19. 

2 US is in deep trouble with covid19. this means lower interest rate till 2025.

3 Europe just made a historic turn - EU created mutual bonds (debt) on last summit. They agreed to debt mutualisation, at least for covid19 grants. This means A. euro is safe B. there is new debt instrument to buy (rich countries could now buy euro debt instead of dollar debt) 

all in all, means euro is going higher. Many talks about 1.25 or even 1.35 for eurusd

 

and.... china is now longer buying dollar debt. Trade wars. 

 

This meams deep troubles for dollar. 

 

 

Thing is it's going down against other currency. No Faith in Reserve currency, which is helping Gold. 

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14 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I better start hedging. I've dilly dallied too long already. 

One of the possibimlities is a „natural hedge“. In your case that would mean gpimg back to the US.

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15 minutes ago, SiP said:

Thats interesting since Gold made one year ago new all time highs in euro. 

Same in jpy, gbp etc

take a look at xaujpy xauchf xaugbp etc. 

 

The price of Gold is almost never shown in EUR. It was reported as a side note once it made that ATH in EUR.

It‘s the same with Oil: you never see that quoted in EUR, although that would be vital for a Germany based investor.

Also tricky with the miners: If they only go up slightly, but USD falls a lot, I could end up actually losing money with them.

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