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DrStool

The Hourly Chart is Bullish... What Else Is New? 7/17/20

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1 hour ago, jp6 said:

They have to Buy Bond as Gombit  is running a huge deficit spending with never ending new Bond issues.

If I was a Bond Holder would sell it and Buy Gold which is also a reserve assets for other CB.

They have been buying bonds.  

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16 minutes ago, potatohead said:

This time is no different. Fiat currencies all die at some point. The dollar milkshake theory floating around Fintweet, is another example of, "it is different this time". The eventual meltup will be in hard assets since all paper currencies are competitively devaluing against each other. The Central Banks or Wall Street have done a masterful job of extending this game.

I Don't buy that Milkshake Theories. They are fully loaded on that trade 

There will be so Much Butt wipes with Deficit spending that it's going to be Flushed down the Toilet like 2001. 

2001 was the Best time to be in Gold

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17 minutes ago, jp6 said:

I Don't buy that Milkshake Theories. They are fully loaded on that trade 

There will be so Much Butt wipes with Deficit spending that it's going to be Flushed down the Toilet like 2001. 

2001 was the Best time to be in Gold

Bill Fleckenstein made a great and simple argument against the strong dollar milkshake theory. Simply put, all these dollar denominated debts can just as easily default like all other debt if everything melts down.

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Cycle oscilators still bullish, but momentum is sketchy. 

tvc_002902126f519d898910f4fba4d141bf.png

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All I know is that the dollar has been declining slowly but relentlessly against the euro. It's not enough to hurt yet, but I'm concerned if there's a breakout, this could devolve quickly into a massive move.  Above 1.20 eur/usd I'll start to feel it.  

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55 minutes ago, potatohead said:

Bill Fleckenstein made a great and simple argument against the strong dollar milkshake theory. Simply put, all these dollar denominated debts can just as easily default like all other debt if everything melts down.

All those Debt will be Rolled over over and again with lower cost of borrowing. In Zero rate would you? 

James Aitken is very good with system Plumbing

https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0002/

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27 minutes ago, jp6 said:

All those Debt will be Rolled over over and again with lower cost of borrowing. In Zero rate would you? 

James Aitken is very good with system Plumbing

https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0002/

agree. That podcast series has been excellent. Really like the approach from these experienced individuals  providing their 2 cents while listening to their thought process in real time. The one with Mike Green was just outstanding. Being in the business for almost 30 years, I only have respect for these professionals. If there is one thing this business teaches, it is humbleness.  I have to say, one reason I have stuck with this board is the absolute respect for Lee. I appreciate his opinions and outlook on the markets. Always like listening to industry veterans and their stories, as well. This industry has turned into a speculative game for the most part. One reason, I realized long ago, the need for hard assets.

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Just now, potatohead said:

agree. That podcast series has been excellent. Really like the approach from these experienced individuals  providing their 2 cents while listening to their thought process in real time. The one with Mike Green was just outstanding. Being in the business for almost 30 years, I only have respect for these professionals. If there is one thing this business teaches, it is humbleness.  I have to say, one reason I have stuck with this board is the absolute respect for Lee. I appreciate his opinions and outlook on the markets. Always like listening to industry veterans and their stories, as well. This industry has turned into a speculative game for the most part. One reason, I realized long ago, the need for hard assets.

like The End Game series.

 like the way most of the Money is going to passive investment,Buy and forget with Zero cash holdings.  Fun Managers makes their money landing out stocks. which is driving the market higher. If ever passive try to sell there won't be any bid and will go to Zero. 

 

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23 minutes ago, potatohead said:

agree. That podcast series has been excellent. Really like the approach from these experienced individuals  providing their 2 cents while listening to their thought process in real time. The one with Mike Green was just outstanding. Being in the business for almost 30 years, I only have respect for these professionals. If there is one thing this business teaches, it is humbleness.  I have to say, one reason I have stuck with this board is the absolute respect for Lee. I appreciate his opinions and outlook on the markets. Always like listening to industry veterans and their stories, as well. This industry has turned into a speculative game for the most part. One reason, I realized long ago, the need for hard assets.

Thank you sir! That means a lot to me. The respect is mutual, from me to you, and everyone else here. The proud, the few, and the few. 

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9 hours ago, DrStool said:

For now, the indicators say a move up is likely with targets of 3220-3230.  Not a big deal. 

tvc_c091e24edee59f872130d8970c3e01b4.png

And we're done. 

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

Indicators are bullish and portend a breakout through channel resistance at 3215.  2-3 day cycle projection 3225-30.

 

Stuff works. 

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Professor Richard Werner joins Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, for a deep-dive into the world of central banking. They explore the process of credit creation and examine the fundamental role it plays in inflating asset bubbles, the popping of which can wreck whole economies but can be very good for central bankers. They analyze the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) remarkable record of credit expansion, including its use of lending quotas, through the lens of Werner’' renowned book, "Princes of the Yen," which was a number one bestseller in Japan. They also look at the ongoing efforts of the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide liquidity during this unprecedented global crisis at all costs, particularly debt monetization and quantitative easing (a term Werner himself coined), which Werner suggests could lead to a widespread bank nationalization – or a "Sovietization" of the banking sector, as he says. Werner argues that the ECB is undemocratic and that it bears a closer similarity to the Reichsbank (1876 – 1945) than it does to the Bundesbank (1957-present). Hendry and Werner conclude their lengthy discussion by looking forward: they scrutinize the current and future monarchs of the global monetary order,

 

 

deep-dive into the world of central banking.   click here

 

 

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THe funny thing is that sometime the banking system creates credit and money, and sometimes money only grows dollar for dollar with the amount the central bank prints. Or even less if the banks are in the mood to delever. 

Which is exactly what's happening now.  Fed balance sheet is growing slightly faster than M2. Money is disappearing. 

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Ultimately, this will precipitate another crash. 

What will the Fed do then, if the propensity of the banks is to use the central bank money to pay down its debts. We don't know because it have never happened before, but my guess is systemic collapse, everybody goes broke, and somehow we start over from scratch, with the likelihood of an intervening dark age.  

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