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Could a Wave of Pandemic Death be Bearish? 7/10/20

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I was a little heavy on my death estimate for yesterday. The total for the day came to 960. Based on the rate it had been rising during the day, I had guessed that it would break 1000. There are signs

I would call the pattern and position of hourly 5 day cycle indicators modestly bearish here . However, there's no 5 day cycle projection. A low on that cycle is ideally due today. A 2-3 day cycle projection of 3110 was hit with a low also due on that cycle now. If the ES clears 3135 in the pre-market, bulls still have the ball. Conversely, bears would take over below 3107. 

tvc_c892490a3fa4d6e82e172622075c3e66.png

 

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I was a little heavy on my death estimate for yesterday. The total for the day came to 960. Based on the rate it had been rising during the day, I had guessed that it would break 1000. There are signs that the infection curve may be flattening in a couple of key states,  California, Florida, and Arizona, but one day does not a trend make. 

My cousin is an ER doc and toxicoligist in Tucson. They are really up against it there. We need to take care of our frontline doctors, nurses and support staff, by doing everything possible to be sure that we don't get sick and that our elderly relatives (like me) don't get sick.  Wear a mask when you're out and about. And stay the fornicate away from other people. 

LEE'S FREE THINKING

Take Care of Mom and Dad Because US COVID Deaths Just Broke Out

by Lee Adler • 

Texas Covid 19 Deaths

The Trump Regime and its minions like Mo Ron DeSantis in state governments have been telling us that the daily record breaking COVID infection rate isn’t a problem because the death rate is way down. That’s good news, they say. 

Well not anymore.

 

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41 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Speaking of silver, what should I do with Mom's silverware? 

There are people who are always bullish even at the Top

would wait till there is huge spike like 2011 then give it to the Bagholders. 

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36 minutes ago, jp6 said:

There are people who are always bullish even at the Top

would wait till there is huge spike like 2011 then give it to the Bagholders. 

Do you think that Silver stocks will underperform Gold stocks, or that Gold stocks will top out soon too?

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The PPI release generated a brief breakout, but now they've pulled back to trend. We're hanging in the balance with mixed indicators. What's clear is that 3133-36 is the fulcrum. Once it starts to move away from here, the next move should be to either 3150 if it's up, or 3110 if it's down.  

tvc_fcf67577e19ebf28d4a2767a2fe82267.png

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herd immunity is off the table as a possible way out of this.

 

Spanish Covid-19 antibody study suggests herd immunity infeasible

Researchers in Spain, one of Europe's worst-hit countries, randomly selected more than 61,000 people, but found that even in places with high infection rates like Madrid, relatively few people tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.

https://medcitynews.com/2020/07/spanish-study-suggests-herd-immunity-against-covid-19-may-not-be-possible/

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Coronavirus has broken out once again here in Oz with the the state of Victoria under siege.  It started with a hotel containing quarantinees supposedly being guarded by security personnel but it turns out the latter were casual recruits, untrained and paid low cash-in-hand rates.  Not only did they share food and a car pool among themselves but rumour has it, their bodies, with those under quarantine.  Sounds like party time ..  Most of Melbourne went back into lockdown but unfortunately many people headed for the NSW border before that snapped shut.  Truckies reported convoys of campervans and caravans heading north to warmer climes.   NSW is now showing signs of infection and not only that but they have just opened their border to QLD so the whole east coast could become raging pandemia.  Still ok over here in the west, no community transmission.  There's travellers returning from overseas but they are in strict quarantine from arrival.

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I am worried that Croatia is a COVID disaster waiting to happen. Anything goes here since they opened the borders.  

116 cases today is a breakout to a new high for the entire pandemic period. And they are doing absolutely nothing. I don't understand how a country who had this totally under control could just walk away.  It's scary. 

I'm still the only person I see with a mask most days.  It's crazy. 

 

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I've stopped seeing on the news ticker stories about companies expanding and tapping their credit lines and announcements of new offerings.  Maybe they are still borrowing like crazy and my haphazard glances at the news ticker are wrong but it is quite possible that the huge corporate credit expansion is over. Add in the now current fall in Treasury borrowing and we may have a  problem.

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