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DrStool

5 Day Cycle Projection 3135

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21 minutes ago, potatohead said:
From ADP..............
 
qy4kHytW_bigger.png
 
ADP
 
·
28m
 
The revision to May's employment # is more pronounced than in past. It reflects the regular adjustment needed to align ADP's National Employment Report (NER) w/the Bureau of Labor & Statistics (BLS) jobs report to more accurately predict change's in reported by the BLS.
:blink2::wacko2::unsure2:
They are saying the BLS numbers are the true and correct NUMBers? .....:lol::lol::ohmy:

BLS-ADP.........The blind leading the blind? or worse........

and Everyone adding/expanding QE beyond belief.......

 

“Lies require commitment.”
― Veronica Roth

“History is a set of lies agreed upon.”
― Napoleon Bonaparte

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, potatohead said:

for those wondering where the liquidity came from, to  push the markets higher recently. I saw this from Chris Carolan. The ECB.

https://twitter.com/spiralcal/status/1278323384796004353/photo/1

 

Certainly the ECB is adding funds to the system, and all 3 of the big central banks correspond with the same primary dealers. So you would conclude that the euros printed by the ECB are flowing to Wall Street. 

But it gets complicated. The evidence suggests that the flows are going the other way on balance.

First, the euro is weak against the dollar. That's normally true this time of year as Americans sell dollars and buy euros. But this year, Americans aren't traveling to Europe. Zero, zilch, nada. Americans are banned. I'm literally one of the few Americans currently in Europe, buying euros with dollars. The other millions of Americans normally here doing that, aren't.  

So why is the dollar weak against the euro particularly with the ECB printing almost as much as the Fed lately? If European banks and investors were buying US stocks on balance, they'd need to convert those euros into USD. The dollar would strengthen agains the euro. It's not.  

European investors are selling US assets and repatriating money. You see evidence of that also in soaring European bank deposits even before the ECB cranked up the presses, and it's continuing. That suggests that ECB printing is staying right in European banks and not flowing to Wall Street as it always did in the past. RIght now it appears that that money is not doing much of anything. 

Unlike the Fed, the ECB does not buy solely from Primary Dealers. There's no direct conduit to the US stock market. In years past, ECB printing did flow to Wall Street. The evidence for that now is lacking. 

The Fed's printing, conversely, still goes directly into US financial assets first, so the Fed is still the first source of cash for the rally. The second source is internal. It's bald faced leverage - direct margin and other forms of indirect borrowing. It can continue as long as prices are rising. It's a positive feedback loop which is dangerous. It can only continue as long as buyers remain hooked on the game. 

Caveat emptor.  

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46 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Certainly the ECB is adding funds to the system, and all 3 of the big central banks correspond with the same primary dealers. So you would conclude that the euros printed by the ECB are flowing to Wall Street. 

But it gets complicated. The evidence suggests that the flows are going the other way on balance.

First, the euro is weak against the dollar. That's normally true this time of year as Americans sell dollars and buy euros. But this year, Americans aren't traveling to Europe. Zero, zilch, nada. Americans are banned. I'm literally one of the few Americans currently in Europe, buying euros with dollars. The other millions of Americans normally here doing that, aren't.  

So why is the dollar weak against the euro particularly with the ECB printing almost as much as the Fed lately? If European banks and investors were buying US stocks on balance, they'd need to convert those euros into USD. The dollar would strengthen agains the euro. It's not.  

European investors are selling US assets and repatriating money. You see evidence of that also in soaring European bank deposits even before the ECB cranked up the presses, and it's continuing. That suggests that ECB printing is staying right in European banks and not flowing to Wall Street as it always did in the past. RIght now it appears that that money is not doing much of anything. 

Unlike the Fed, the ECB does not buy solely from Primary Dealers. There's no direct conduit to the US stock market. In years past, ECB printing did flow to Wall Street. The evidence for that now is lacking. 

The Fed's printing, conversely, still goes directly into US financial assets first, so the Fed is still the first source of cash for the rally. The second source is internal. It's bald faced leverage - direct margin and other forms of indirect borrowing. It can continue as long as prices are rising. It's a positive feedback loop which is dangerous. It can only continue as long as buyers remain hooked on the game. 

Caveat emptor.  

Appreciate your clarity and comments.

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Dungs a lot and tanks very much! 

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Certainly the ECB is adding funds to the system, and all 3 of the big central banks correspond with the same primary dealers. So you would conclude that the euros printed by the ECB are flowing to Wall Street. 

But it gets complicated. The evidence suggests that the flows are going the other way on balance.

First, the euro is weak against the dollar. That's normally true this time of year as Americans sell dollars and buy euros. But this year, Americans aren't traveling to Europe. Zero, zilch, nada. Americans are banned. I'm literally one of the few Americans currently in Europe, buying euros with dollars. The other millions of Americans normally here doing that, aren't.  

So why is the dollar weak against the euro particularly with the ECB printing almost as much as the Fed lately? If European banks and investors were buying US stocks on balance, they'd need to convert those euros into USD. The dollar would strengthen agains the euro. It's not.  

European investors are selling US assets and repatriating money. You see evidence of that also in soaring European bank deposits even before the ECB cranked up the presses, and it's continuing. That suggests that ECB printing is staying right in European banks and not flowing to Wall Street as it always did in the past. RIght now it appears that that money is not doing much of anything. 

Unlike the Fed, the ECB does not buy solely from Primary Dealers. There's no direct conduit to the US stock market. In years past, ECB printing did flow to Wall Street. The evidence for that now is lacking. 

The Fed's printing, conversely, still goes directly into US financial assets first, so the Fed is still the first source of cash for the rally. The second source is internal. It's bald faced leverage - direct margin and other forms of indirect borrowing. It can continue as long as prices are rising. It's a positive feedback loop which is dangerous. It can only continue as long as buyers remain hooked on the game. 

Caveat emptor.  

politics-usa_federal_reserve-bernanke-economics-recession-business-dbrn583_low.thumb.jpg.8f7f19e5cdc0972d43c8b997439f3d10.jpg

 

>: Arsenal actually won a game without someone going off on a stretcher.......

Miracles do happen

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7 hours ago, DrStool said:

5 day cycle projection now 3115-25. 

Done, but as regular hours end, the projection is back to 3135.  Hourlly oscillators could be toppy, or could be in trending mode. Just a bit of a pullback is needed for a nice 5 day cycle sell signal. 

On the first day of the second half of the year 2020, I bid you good night, and good luck, America. 

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Reportedly University of Alabama students are throwing Covid parties to try and spread the virus. I say reportedly because maybe it's a Mellow Yellow thing. Youngsters will have to look that up.  I doubt students today have the sense of humor.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514

As a WAG I'd say 30% of Americans want to infect you and don't give a damn if you die.  Which shouldn't be news to anyone but seems to be news to most everyone.

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