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Come On, Who Really Thinks This is Sustainable? 6/16/20

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12 hours ago, jp6 said:

The SPV is called the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) It is funded by $75B from the Cares Act … taxpayers. Blackrock is doing all the trades. It was announced on March 22, and started today, a week shy of three months later.

As long as the Treasury is willing to use taxpayer money is this fashion, nothing stops them from buying equities.

if the Fed and the Treasury create another SPV to buy equities, and Biden wins, nothing is to stop the Biden Treasury from appointing AOC to vote the proxies and use this clout to demand/force the Green New Deal. 

Once Trump is gone, There is going to be lot's of money printing.

Blackrock is managing the fund. The trades will be executed, as usual, with Primary Dealers. The Fed put out a list of accepted counterparties, and at a quick glance, virtually all of them were Primary Dealers. 

The direct outright purchases of individual corporates is a new wrinkle. Previously the Fed was only going to buy ETFs. 

The size of these transactions is less than a rounding error relative to regular OMO. 

While I think that a Green New Deal is a good idea in theory, and I greatly admire AOC, that bit you wrote about AOC having a proxy from the Treasury is loony tunes gibberish.  

No one in modern history has come close to the spending of the current Regime.  The last two D administrations reduced the deficit. In fact, Clinton ran a surplus. After the initial post GFC surge, Obama shrank the deficit. The D's are the ones who are fiscally responsible.  After the next round of pandemic relief, the deficit will shrink, but from what level. From $800 billion a month to 200-300 billion per month?  We used to think a trillion a year $80B/mo. was crazy.

Dicsucs.

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5 day cycle projection 3130.  Not there yet, but 5 day cycle oscillators have downticked, suggesting that the cycle high is in. 

To get some perspective I used a new and innovative technical approach on the hourly bar chart. It's called the Scrunching Hyper Interval Technique, or SHIT. Or Scruncher if, you will. 

Something's happening here. What it is, ain't dzackly clear.

tvc_cce1af5aad97e59bd4bc718dff7ad3b7.png

 

 

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My next destination was to be Poland. The Schengen Area, including Poland, is now opening to international travel from other EU countries. I am in Croatia, which is an EU country. 

Problem.  

Americans are not allowed. A US passport is now as good as used toilet paper. 

With the virus raging at home in FL, and the need to take 3 flights to get back there, going back at this point is a non-starter. 

Croatia has extended its automatic 90 day visitor visa indefinitely until 30 days after the end of the pandemic emergency is announced. 

I guess I'm just a homeless nomad from a rogue state.  A pandemic refugee here at the good graces of the Croatian government. 

It's hard to be unhappy about being stuck in Zadar.  

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Walking on the water.

A post shared by Lee Adler (@200daysineurope) on

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Another totally crazy day with All Ords closing +3.9%.  This stock I bought almost 3 weeks ago @ .028 looking for a 10-20% profit.  Sold today for +75%.  I read somewhere recently that a whole lotta people without jobs are jumping into daytrading.

image.png.1c7b8c8d737f0051fa54a33ce5698e71.png

 

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Here we go:

 

Quote

Tens of thousands of Australians stranded at home over the past few months due to COVID-19 have taken up a new pastime: trying to make money trading shares.

 

Quote

 

The 21-year-old from Brisbane, who studies law part time while working at a property company, says she was looking at her phone one day a couple of months ago and saw the share market was down 30 per cent.

"And I thought if ever there was a time to get into trading, it would probably be now," she recalls.

 

 

Quote

 

Like many other people pushed out of their day jobs due to the pandemic, professional rugby player Jack Dempsey turned to shares in a bid to recover his lost income.

"We're two months into pay cuts and I've already made back what I would have lost and some more as well," he says.

 

 

Quote

 

David Ika is currently unemployed. He withdrew all his super when the Government allowed it — $9,000 worth — and invested it himself.

"I don't know if anyone really knows what the market's going to do, so I'm not going to pay an advisor to use my money," he explains.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-12/first-time-share-investors-take-a-punt-on-coronavirus-recovery/12344008

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It's very simple.

During 9/11 who would have thought fed can pump assets price up they did it for 6 months, why wouldn't it happen again?

Lot's of pro traders are looking for another low and strong Dollar, that is why market will keep going up and Dollar down. 

Bullish till September/October then look for bearish case depending where market is trading.

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5 day cycle projection 3135. 

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Let's do a Survey SPX By September

SPX 4000

SPX 3500

SPX 3000

SPX 2500

SPX 2000

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I saw an item on the news ticker yesterday which summarizes  pretty well where we are.   UAL said that it expected to have $17bn in, quote,  "liquidity", by the fall. Noting it expects to lose $40m a day in the second quarter and $30m in the 3rd. Now the jury is out if nearly unlimited capital in the form of credit is a sustainable economic model.

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1 hour ago, jp6 said:

It's very simple.

During 9/11 who would have thought fed can pump assets price up they did it for 6 months, why wouldn't it happen again?

Lot's of pro traders are looking for another low and strong Dollar, that is why market will keep going up and Dollar down. 

Bullish till September/October then look for bearish case depending where market is trading.

Where's the data for the Fed pumping asset prices for 6 months in 9/11. I didn't know that. 

Today is nothing like 9/11. As I recall, the Fed just did a load of short term repos then. Today's permanent money is literally orders of magnitude greater than anything ever done before. It stands on its own. 

Lots of pro traders are looking for another low and strong Dollar? Source, please. 

 

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Might be aiming for the trendline at 3155 on the daily ES. 

tvc_41b740a944729f75b5e9bd621a597e3c.png

 

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2-3 day cycle projection 3170. Wow. 

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There's actually an upsloping reverse head and shoulders breakout here. It measures to 3300.  

Just sayin. 

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Anymore. All the action is pre market. 

Poor Tim and Sven. They must be spitting blood.  

I get it.  But you just can't fight the Fed. 

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