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The Big Cycles Over The Last 500 Years

While the evolution of empires and currencies is one continuous story that started before there was recorded history, in this chapter I am going to pick up the story around the year 1600.  My objective is simply to put where we are in perspective of history and bring us up to date.  I will begin by very briefly reviewing what the Big Cycle looks like and then scan through the last 500 years to show these Big Cycles playing out before examining more closely the declines of the Dutch and British empires and their reserve currencies.  Then I will show how the decline of the British empire and the pound evolved into the rise of the US empire and US dollar and I will take a glimpse at the emergence of the Chinese empire and the Chinese renminbi.


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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Chiner had a big selloff today. 

Hong Kong was the biggie, -5.6%.


"Chinese officials have announced plans to impose sweeping new laws on Hong Kong after last year's pro-democracy unrest, the implications of which activists say could be "deadly dangerous" and a "knockout blow" for Hong Kong's one country, two systems deal with China."





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In the context of human history, democracy has been a short lived experiment. Crazy totalitarian rule is the norm.

The progress of the post WWII era was an anomaly. And even there its successes were short lived and spotty. Enlightenment has never been a widely popular or deeply embedded trend. 

The 2020 US elections--the process, the result, and the aftermath, will be a watershed in human history.     

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Now that restrictions have been lowered in the US for a few weeks, case numbers are starting to rise in places where they had been coming down.  The US is going to be a hell hole this summer as the virus begins to spread more rapidly. Then what will the states do?    

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11 minutes ago, specie said:

STT's GLD is relying on HSBC to have the gold to back their ETF but i don't think they have it


Do you have links to this story. Who would let HSBC hold anything in trust? 

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i don't have anything to link to.  As you may remember i am a borker and i read a lot.  I met with the man that started GLD george milling stanley last october.  just he and i and the rep from state street.  over an hour and a half.  He's a banker not a gold bug.  There are numerous stories in the last month of huge losses in gold at hsbc and missing bars.

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