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COVID19 Death Count Bull Market 5/11/20

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I have not looked at the market since it opened because I've been working on this.  LEE'S FREE THINKING USA COVID19 Weekend Case and Death Count 5/8/20-5/10/20 by Lee Adler • M

They're leveraging an exclusive "Janet Yellen Centerfold" issue....

(Sneak peak...)

I know Doc axxed us to dicsucs, but I'd like to go back to Jorma's most excellent post.  Jorma reminds me of an old Stoolie with a three-letter name, but that's neither there nor here..

According to this count the number of cases worldwide has passed 4 million.


In the US and Western Europe I multiply that by 20 to account for light and asymptomatic cases. For the rest of the world whatever the numbers reported they must be dwarfed by the reality. The reported numbers are of use mostly to judge the rate of change in infections but even that is going to be skewed because almost every government in the world has a thumb on the scale to drive the numbers down.

So let me make a WAG and say the total number of cases worldwide is 200 million. That's 2.5% of the world population. 

Library's cafes and gyms are interesting but it is workplaces where the social/political/economic story is going to be told. When a few billion people are made aware that going to work risks killing them or their family or friends I'm thinking this is not going to make workers think of the company first. It will make people question their work as what defines them.  This is not bullish for the corporate model.   

I'm not sure of my points exactly but whatever we have seen so far is nothing compared to what's coming.

I agree.  This would ordinarily be Mad-Max-bearish.  But I'm not totally sure- all the stimulus so far with its minor impact (also bearish) could lead to a hyperinflation as currencies collapse.  If that's the case, then paper markets will rally along with everything else, but be eclipsed by commodities.  Already I'm hearing (can't remember where I read it) that frozen real estate markets in Canada are witnessing a huge y-o-y gain (~20%) for those sales actually occurring.

Or, also potentially bullish, a widespread/global infection that's staggered in time would permit health care (and all the other associated services) to better handle the load.  Many would die, but the deaths would skew toward the oldest and most infirm/compromised.  Not good at all, but also not so bearish, with the vast majority surviving. The pandemic is already bringing about changes to the collective consciousness, though not as much or as deep as it should - I'd posit that it's because the average person today is so absolutely fucking bag-of-nails stupid- but things are just getting started and repetition is a strong persuader.

So I think that the 1950s-commute-to-work-company-man model is definitely going to take a hit.  There will be contraction and losses in some sectors, industries, locations, etc, but also growth and gains in others as we're already seeing.

So while I agonize over whether to go all to cash and take my losses, or stay in, double down and pray, I'm wondering whether we don't get a muddle-through.

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The old people will die. They're the ones with the money. The young will inherit and spend.  

Currencies can't nominally collapse. Against what? 

They can collapse against goods and assets. That means that gold, commodities, assets, real estate, consumer goods. Any money substitute. But they'll retain their relative values against each other.  It will be a broad inflation.  

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UK is taking it seriously ..

"Mr Shapps, who was speaking a day before the prime minister is due to address the country on lockdown measures, said there had been unprecedented levels of walking and cycling during the pandemic.

He said: "Whilst it's crucial that we stay at home, when the country does get back to work we need to ask those people to carry on cycling or walking and for them to be joined by many others as well."

Even if the UK transport network was running at full capacity, social distancing rules would mean only one in 10 passengers could travel, he said.

Pop-up bike lanes, wider pavements, safer junctions, and cycle and bus-only corridors will be created in England within weeks as part of a £250m emergency fund."




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I have not looked at the market since it opened because I've been working on this. 


USA COVID19 Weekend Case and Death Count 5/8/20-5/10/20

by Lee Adler •  • 0 Comments

COVID19 New Cases Daily, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts

The trends for the nation as a whole looked good as of Sunday May, 10. 20,329 new cases were reported Sunday. That’s down from 27,348, the previous Sunday. 25,524 cases were reported Saturday, May 9, down from 29,744 the previous Saturday. But unfortunately, that’s not the whole story.


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