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DrStool

It Makes Me Sad - 5/8/20

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On May 18 Western Australians entering Phase 2 of emerging from lock-down.  For me it means the library, gym and local cafes will be open.  Regional travel is still limited, going from 13 regions down to 4.

 

Phase 3 will commence June 15, all going well...🙂

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1 hour ago, aussiebear said:

On May 18 Western Australians entering Phase 2 of emerging from lock-down.  For me it means the library, gym and local cafes will be open.  Regional travel is still limited, going from 13 regions down to 4.

 

Phase 3 will commence June 15, all going well...🙂

According to this count the number of cases worldwide has passed 4 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

In the US and Western Europe I multiply that by 20 to account for light and asymptomatic cases. For the rest of the world whatever the numbers reported they must be dwarfed by the reality. The reported numbers are of use mostly to judge the rate of change in infections but even that is going to be skewed because almost every government in the world has a thumb on the scale to drive the numbers down.

So let me make a WAG and say the total number of cases worldwide is 200 million. That's 2.5% of the world population. 

Library's cafes and gyms are interesting but it is workplaces where the social/political/economic story is going to be told. When a few billion people are made aware that going to work risks killing them or their family or friends I'm thinking this is not going to make workers think of the company first. It will make people question their work as what defines them.  This is not bullish for the corporate model.   

I'm not sure of my points exactly but whatever we have seen so far is nothing compared to what's coming.

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Yes, possibly re workplaces but that's probably not an issue in Australia or not where I am anyway.  There was a substantial outbreak in a meatworks over the other side of Australia, as there has been in the US and Germany.  Seems that is one industry that is risky.  Those of us in Western Australia are being encouraged to go back to work May 18 unless unwell or have a health condition.  Contact sports are still verboten.

 

The state border is still firmly closed apart from essential workers and services.  The latest word is that it could remain closed until next year!  God only knows when overseas travel will resume.

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3 hours ago, Jorma said:

According to this count the number of cases worldwide has passed 4 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

In the US and Western Europe I multiply that by 20 to account for light and asymptomatic cases. For the rest of the world whatever the numbers reported they must be dwarfed by the reality. The reported numbers are of use mostly to judge the rate of change in infections but even that is going to be skewed because almost every government in the world has a thumb on the scale to drive the numbers down.

So let me make a WAG and say the total number of cases worldwide is 200 million. That's 2.5% of the world population. 

Library's cafes and gyms are interesting but it is workplaces where the social/political/economic story is going to be told. When a few billion people are made aware that going to work risks killing them or their family or friends I'm thinking this is not going to make workers think of the company first. It will make people question their work as what defines them.  This is not bullish for the corporate model.   

I'm not sure of my points exactly but whatever we have seen so far is nothing compared to what's coming.

Yes. I have resolved to never leaving my apartment in Zagreb.  The Schengen pushed back its entry ban to June 15, with further review before that. I'm wondering if I might still be here in November.  

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2 hours ago, DrStool said:

Yes. I have resolved to never leaving my apartment in Zagreb.  The Schengen pushed back its entry ban to June 15, with further review before that. I'm wondering if I might still be here in November.  

I myself would look into buying a car. I am sure it would be a bureaucratic nightmare.getting one licenced and insured to take all the way to Spain or France but you have got time.  Then you could plan one long mad dash in July or August.. Sleep and eat in the damn car. Of course you would need a destination but some other place might be better than Zagreb. A personal car sure beats trains or planes.

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Croatia has the lowest infection and death rate of EU countries.  I'm content to stay here. I will fly to Warsaw in one hop when it opens.  

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Gurdgiev raises a great question. 

COVID19 Charts Update

by Constantin Gurdgiev •  • 0 Comments

Screenshot-2020-05-10-at-08.50.16.png?fi

In US and Europe daily new cases and deaths remain well above the levels when restrictions were imposed. If these levels were concerning back then, why do the higher levels today not warrant continued restrictions? 

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48 minutes ago, Jorma said:

I myself would look into buying a car. I am sure it would be a bureaucratic nightmare.getting one licenced and insured to take all the way to Spain or France but you have got time.  Then you could plan one long mad dash in July or August.. Sleep and eat in the damn car. Of course you would need a destination but some other place might be better than Zagreb. A personal car sure beats trains or planes.

Also, in order to buy a car, I would need to be a legal resident.  

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I came to Europe to escape the car culture.  

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Iran stock index breaks through 1 million mark

https://www.arabnews.com/node/1672126/business-economy

anal cysts  say the booming stock market is at odds with Iran’s economic fundamentals, which are deteriorating under the weight of sanctions and the coronavirus outbreak, raising the risk of a stock market bubble.

liquidity can usurp reality. Here's yet more proof with Iranian TEDPIX +165% this year!

Nasty @20k?

 

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Blackrock wrote this 4 weeks ago:
https://www.blackrockblog.com/2020/04/13/uncertainty-and-investment-opportunities/

„At the same time, we will follow the Fed and other DM central banks by purchasing what they’re purchasing, and assets that rhyme with those. That means buying U.S. nominal duration where there is still scope for rates to rally further (i.e. the back end), which also provides a dependable risk hedge. We will own some U.S. breakevens that are cheap for technical reasons, and we will be selling U.S. rate volatility as rates come down and are pinned lower, especially at the front-end.“

1. They simply follow the FED

2. They expect lower rates. So if rates would go higher all of a sudden, they would be in the wrong side

What I ask myself: Years ago not many said that all that counts is the FED and the amount of liquidity which is injected into the system. Now it seems EVERY asset manager on earth says that. They basically say „do not analyze anything else, waste of time, just analyze what tbe FED does and act accordingly“. Which implications could that have? Misallication of capital, ok, granted. But what else? They will demand even more liqui, more and more and more, Anything else?

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