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DrStool

Economy Reopens to Sounds of SIlence, Stocks Rally 5/5/20

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SiP has the most foresightful handle of our era. 
How’d he so long ago foresee global sheltering in place?

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Beef shortages. Rising oil prices. Rising grocery prices. It's starting.  Inflation is here and it's big.  

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Watch the 10 year over the next week.  If I'm right, it will get ugly. 0.72 is the Maginot Line. 

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AA changed my return flight ticket. It's no longer June 4 from Paris, France. 

It's June 4, from Paris TX.  

They're gonna give me a credit, but they won't say how much. 

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Just now, DrStool said:

AA changed my return flight ticket. It's no longer June 4 from Paris, France. 

It's June 4, from Paris TX.  

Wahaha! Reminds me of the 1996 Atlanta Olympics when the whole crowd freaked out when the Olympic team of the former Soviet Republic Georgia walked into the stadium during the opening ceremony.

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8 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Watch the 10 year over the next week.  If I'm right, it will get ugly. 0.72 is the Maginot Line. 

Folks who are long TLT as a hedge for a stock market downmove should be carefull.

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17 minutes ago, SiP said:

Its not whole market that is moving up, its mainly big TECH like MSFT which now captured 25% of SP500 and most market cap of this market. Ive just read that most stocks hit 52 week low! 

Iv seen a chart which presents MSFT vs FTSE100 market cap. One MSFT is the same size as british FTSE 100 !!!!

So if you talk about market as a MSFT then its moving up. when you look and many other markets including EM then is movind down or sideways for the last month. 

Just take a look at EMFX USDMXN, USDTRY (new record today!), USDZAR and many more.

I dont believe that 4k SP500 is possible. its out of question for me. I dont see any also option for crash to 1500. Im seeing more chances for big broad sideway phase. Hovewer close of monthly candle above 2933 (9 EMA) will be bullish and would point out to just take leveraged longs on sp500. Im still thinking what to do in Europe. european stocks are the most undervalued to US stocks since 1980!!! Its moving just sideways. 

EDIT: Ive seen a chart which presents CB injections vs % of GDP. US FED did like 10 times more than ECB or BOJ. Maybe that the reason why europe or asia is not moving up.
 


Most important chart:

image.png.7bc214ef1ea7f16365bc0edfc3cfb51d.png

80 to 85: „Europe is just ancient crap, buy the USA!“

85 to 95: „Didn‘t I say that Europe was undervalued few years ago?  Now look at this!“

95 to 2000; „You can always count on the US!“

03 to 08: „I always told you to be 200% long Emerging Markets!“

09 till now: „USA USA USA!!!“

many things and trends in the financial world are just a reflection of the USD exchange rate.

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18 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Beef shortages. Rising oil prices. Rising grocery prices. It's starting.  Inflation is here and it's big.  

Beef: Shortages will end soon

Oil: Comes from a total crashing low

Grocery: Was too cheap for many years

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42 minutes ago, fxfox said:


Most important chart:

eurusd

80 to 85: „Europe is just ancient crap, buy the USA!“

85 to 95: „Didn‘t I say that Europe was undervalued few years ago?  Now look at this!“

95 to 2000; „You can always count on the US!“

03 to 08: „I always told you to be 200% long Emerging Markets!“

09 till now: „USA USA USA!!!“

many things and trends in the financial world are just a reflection of the USD exchange rate.

Its not true right now.

Since you live in Europe than you know that Europe is great in heavy industries like car engines, cars, planes, factories and in general B2B (business to business) services. Heavy industries now sucks ass. Really.

Europe is missing so called Digital Single Market. there are no unicors. NADA, ZIP. You could say maybe German SAP, maybe one. If there was good digital player then it was bought by US like Skype from estonia was bought by microsoft. Take a look at electronics in BMW - is just pure crap. US on the other side has the scale and software. Since most of the world right now work remotely using teams (microsoft), office 365 or Google G suit then this is why those big tech are proliferating. same as Netflix. They closed cinemas and entertainment is moving to VOD (video on demand). In Poland several films which were suppose to be put in cinemas were streamed in polish VOD apps. its a revolution. Now there is a war. Just this week biggest cinema operators went against Uiversal because they want to change the model - no exclusive rights for cinemas. in the same dates you would stream film in VOD

https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/amc-theaters-ban-universal-movies-trolls-box-office

COVID-19 just turbo charge the big tech trend and US is the biggest beneficiary of that. Thats a fact. Pure fact and you dont need any FED liquidity to pump up this stocks. You have to be invested in big tech since they are wining. really. The question is - when they become to big and they will be split like AT&T. the talk is ongoing, but the question is - how to split them. they are not railways, you cant separate lines. Look at Amazon -> 70+ bln USD rev in Q1 2020, with AWS cloud (10bln USD). they had earnings -> 3 bln USD but 80% of that came from cloud. rest of amazon is ....generating loss! its cloud, gaming, office365 which is scaling. not shitty eCommerce since you need to hire 100k people.

So big tech is moving market. They have sound and good fundamentals. of course the question is PE/valuation. But the trend is real.

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I still hope I can get to Poland. 

I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where I know that my grandfather was from. Also the marriage of great aunt, and birth of her first son, who was my mother's first cousin. They came to America. I remember him from childhood. 

I also found records of the birth of my great grandmother and her siblings in another town.  I found many family names of ancestors from 1900 going back to the 1830s, including Plomnik, Fuks, Walfisz, Finkielshteyn, and Kruk.  But I'm now at a dead end. No more records on line. 

I'd like to find the birth records of my grandparents. Perhaps they exist in the dusty basement of the town hall or some other repository, but many were destroyed. One of the towns was 90% destroyed as it was the site of a massive battle between the Nazis and Soviet Army, a meeting of two great evils. Were the Nazis worse? Yes. Doesn't mitigate how bad the Soviets were.    

Great Grandpa Fuks came to America and was a socialist rabble rouser giving pro-union speeches in the early days of the organzed labor movement in America.  The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. 

The great grandmother stayed behind and remarried. Family grapevine is that she and her siblings moved to Palestine before the Nazis came. I probably have half-cousins in Israel.  Found death records of some with my most direct and rare family name, who were likely children of my great grandfather's siblings in Warsaw 1939-40s. The Nazis got them. This is the first time I've found likely direct familial connections to Holocaust victims in Poland. 

I was supposed to be there for the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising. Sad I missed that. Hope to have another opportunity. 

I don't know why I wrote this here.  

I think about how bad we all have it with this pandemic. 

Compared to what we're used to.

Then I think about what people went through in WW2, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, and the Pogroms in Russia and Poland.  For many peoples in the world, peace and prosperity are relatively fleeting luxuries. It's true even for those who've enjoyed it in recent times. We only need to look back a generation or two, and it wasn't so good.  

But we survive. It may take awhile, and some of us may not live to see it, but a time will come when everything will be alright again for a while. Unfortunately humans seem to lack the capacity to keep it that way.   

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56 minutes ago, DrStool said:

Beef shortages. Rising oil prices. Rising grocery prices. It's starting.  Inflation is here and it's big.  

Just came from a large Kroger.........3/4 beef gone, No Roast For You!......Pork too.....(Plenty of TP now....)🤪

what they had in Ground Chuck $3.99/lb  Bulk(3-5lbs) $5/lb small package    $7/lb Nolan Ryan grain fed chuck beef

all about $1-$2 more than this year.....

bulk ground chuck was on sale locally(over supply) 2-3 weeks ago $1.50 lb

No canned spaghetti and meatballs to be found......🤔

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37 minutes ago, SiP said:

Its not true right now.

Since you live in Europe than you know that Europe is great in heavy industries like car engines, cars, planes, factories and in general B2B (business to business) services. Heavy industries now sucks ass. Really.

Europe is missing so called Digital Single Market. there are no unicors. NADA, ZIP. You could say maybe German SAP, maybe one. If there was good digital player then it was bought by US like Skype from estonia was bought by microsoft. Take a look at electronics in BMW - is just pure crap. US on the other side has the scale and software. Since most of the world right now work remotely using teams (microsoft), office 365 or Google G suit then this is why those big tech are proliferating. same as Netflix. They closed cinemas and entertainment is moving to VOD (video on demand). In Poland several films which were suppose to be put in cinemas were streamed in polish VOD apps. its a revolution. Now there is a war. Just this week biggest cinema operators went against Uiversal because they want to change the model - no exclusive rights for cinemas. in the same dates you would stream film in VOD

https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/amc-theaters-ban-universal-movies-trolls-box-office

COVID-19 just turbo charge the big tech trend and US is the biggest beneficiary of that. Thats a fact. Pure fact and you dont need any FED liquidity to pump up this stocks. You have to be invested in big tech since they are wining. really. The question is - when they become to big and they will be split like AT&T. the talk is ongoing, but the question is - how to split them. they are not railways, you cant separate lines. Look at Amazon -> 70+ bln USD rev in Q1 2020, with AWS cloud (10bln USD). they had earnings -> 3 bln USD but 80% of that came from cloud. rest of amazon is ....generating loss! its cloud, gaming, office365 which is scaling. not shitty eCommerce since you need to hire 100k people.

So big tech is moving market. They have sound and good fundamentals. of course the question is PE/valuation. But the trend is real.

You are absolutely right. I only wanted to emphasize that the USD exchange rate is often tge reason for performance differences. Best example::After Plaza Accord in 1985 USD devalued massivly. At that time Europe had at least the same structural problems like the US, yet an US based investor had to be invested in Europe just because of the fall of the Dollar.

The lack of big tech players in Europe is really a big big structural problem. Heavy industry is not the future, it is the past, definitely. It would really be worth to write a dissertation about why Big Tech emerged and prospered so big in the US, but not in the same way in Europe. Very complicated issue. One reason is simply the language. Nobody wants to learn German, but everybody can speak english, morE or less. That is only one reason. There are many many others.

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20 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I still hope I can get to Poland. 

 

gh in WW2, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, and the Pogroms in Russia and Poland.  For many peoples in the world, peace and prosperity are relatively fleeting luxuries. It's true even for those who've enjoyed it in recent times. We only need to look back a generation or two, and it wasn't so good.  

But we survive. It may take awhile, and some of us may not live to see it, but a time will come when everything will be alright again for a while. Unfortunately humans seem to lack the capacity to keep it that way.   

 

Poland was the 4th (nominal) hardest hit country during WWII.

ZSRR - 26 mln peope

China - 15-20 mln people

Germany - 6,9-7,4 mln people

Poland - 5,9-6 mln people

In terms of % of total population it was the 1st :(

Poland regularly had problems because it is in the centre of Europe, between Germany Austria  and Russia. Milions were killed during last 200 years and we lost our independance for 123 years. We had three Polish partitions - Poland was split to Prusia, austria russia etc

We still have a lot of problems. Now the biggest is populism. We are ruled by Kaczyński - same great guy as Orban. We become colony of US and US is trying even today to split EU thanks to our populism. Even today microsoft announced 1 bln usd investement in cloud in poland by builing so called region (local data center)

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/microsoft-to-invest-1bln-in-poland-as-new-figures-show-us-pumped-216-billion-in-to-the-country-last-year-alone-12468

Now we are getting more and more divided as Poles. Our president died in 2010 (Kaczyński twin brother) in Smoleńsk in plane crash. 50% of Poles, due to fakenews, believed he was killed by Russia by bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster

Now we have a problem with the presidential election. It suppose to be handled by regular mail at 10th of may, due to covid19. But the government could be resolved. We are having a major political crisis right now. I was watching Parliament TV for the half of day. 

 

 

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Doc, I have to go now but if you need help in Poland do let me know. I admire your work and your way of life.

In priv I could send you my local mobile number.

Just remember that when you cross border right now you have to be quarantined for 14 days in one place. You cant move outside. There is mobile app which you have to install and make selfie (really!) every 4 hours to confirm you are at this place.

Here is a link to google play for that app in polish (called Kwarantanna domowa which means House Quarantine) https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=pl.nask.droid.kwarantannadomowa&hl=pl

I would wait. They just announced some opening. Probably end of may is ok.

 

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40 minutes ago, DrStool said:

I still hope I can get to Poland. 

I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where I know that my grandfather was from. Also the marriage of great aunt, and birth of her first son, who was my mother's first cousin. They came to America. I remember him from childhood. 

I also found records of the birth of my great grandmother and her siblings in another town.  I found many family names of ancestors from 1900 going back to the 1830s, including Plomnik, Fuks, Walfisz, Finkielshteyn, and Kruk.  But I'm now at a dead end. No more records on line. 

I'd like to find the birth records of my grandparents. Perhaps they exist in the dusty basement of the town hall or some other repository, but many were destroyed. One of the towns was 90% destroyed as it was the site of a massive battle between the Nazis and Soviet Army, a meeting of two great evils. Were the Nazis worse? Yes. Doesn't mitigate how bad the Soviets were.    

Great Grandpa Fuks came to America and was a socialist rabble rouser giving pro-union speeches in the early days of the organzed labor movement in America.  The apple doesn't fall far from the tree. 

The great grandmother stayed behind and remarried. Family grapevine is that she and her siblings moved to Palestine before the Nazis came. I probably have half-cousins in Israel.  Found death records of some with my most direct and rare family name, who were likely children of my great grandfather's siblings in Warsaw 1939-40s. The Nazis got them. This is the first time I've found likely direct familial connections to Holocaust victims in Poland. 

I was supposed to be there for the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising. Sad I missed that. Hope to have another opportunity. 

I don't know why I wrote this here.  

I think about how bad we all have it with this pandemic. 

Compared to what we're used to.

Then I think about what people went through in WW2, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, and the Pogroms in Russia and Poland.  For many peoples in the world, peace and prosperity are relatively fleeting luxuries. It's true even for those who've enjoyed it in recent times. We only need to look back a generation or two, and it wasn't so good.  

But we survive. It may take awhile, and some of us may not live to see it, but a time will come when everything will be alright again for a while. Unfortunately humans seem to lack the capacity to keep it that way.   

That‘s really a great piece, Doc!

Great story about your Great Grandpa! Fuks is Fuchs in German at that means fox. See Doc, we are relatives! 😂 Walfisz is Walfisch and that is a Whale, that‘s also great! Btw your family name Adler, from where did that part of the family come from? Germany, Austria, Nowadays western parts of Poland?

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