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Another Day, Another Bottom 5/4/20

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Less Support from the Fed Forces Re-evaluation of Stock Market  2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 4, 2020 I am rescinding the comments I made last week about the

Looks bullish

Gold, held in physical form and outside the financial system. This does not include allocated accounts or storage.

44 minutes ago, Jorma said:

How do you build a depression proof  portfolio?

Gold, held in physical form and outside the financial system. This does not include allocated accounts or storage.

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1 hour ago, DrStool said:

I just tried to access the Treasury Q2 new financing estimates here https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm997 

And got Access Denied. You are not authorized. Am I now an enema of distaste? Can you axxex that page? 

Yes I can:

TREASURY ANNOUNCES MARKETABLE BORROWING ESTIMATES

 
May 4, 2020

Sources and Uses Tables

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of privately-held net marketable borrowing[1] for the April - June 2020 and July - September 2020 quarters:

 

  • During the April – June 2020 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $2,999 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $800 billion.  The borrowing estimate is $3,055 billion higher than announced in February 2020.  The increase in privately-held net marketable borrowing is primarily driven by the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, including expenditures from new legislation to assist individuals and businesses, changes to tax receipts including the deferral of individual and business taxes from April – June until July, and an increase in the assumed end-of-June Treasury cash balance.[2]

 

  • During the July – September 2020 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $677 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $800 billion.

 

During the January – March 2020 quarter, Treasury borrowed $477 billion in privately-held net marketable debt and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $515 billion.  In February 2020, Treasury estimated privately-held net marketable borrowing of $367 billion and assumed an end-of-March cash balance of $400 billion. The $110 billion increase in borrowing resulted primarily from the higher end-of-quarter cash balance.

                                                                                                                                         

Additional financing details relating to Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Wednesday, May 6, 2020.

 

###

 

[1] Privately-held net marketable borrowing excludes rollovers (auction “add-ons”) of Treasury securities held in the Federal Reserve System Open Market Account (SOMA) but includes financing required due to SOMA redemptions. Secondary market purchases of Treasury securities by SOMA do not directly change net privately-held marketable borrowing but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Fed does not redeem any maturing securities, would increase the amount of cash raised for a given privately-held auction size by increasing the SOMA “add-on” amount. 

[2]

   TBACqr22020_estimates.png

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It came up for me a little while ago. 

LEE'S FREE THINKING

US Treasury Says It Will Borrow $3 Trillion in Q2

by Lee Adler •  • 0 Comments

The $3 trillion includes $1.37 trillion already borrowed in April. That implies additional borrowing of $1.63 trillion in May and June. May typically has light net new borrowing. May 2019 net borrowing totaled $67 billion.

The $3 trillion estimate is an increase of $3.06 trillion above the Treasury Department’s Q2 estimate that it posted in February.

See Liquidity Trader for ongoing in depth analysis and outlook.

 

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Generally speaking one has to keep in mind:

The „market“ has no morale, no empathy or whatsoever. It is so to say in its core facistoid and follows „survival of the fittest“. In such a system it is the inner logic that the system itself gives a damn who dies. The system would care if 20 million well educated folks between 25 and 45 would die, or if millions of the youth would die. Right now we do not see this happening. Not even close. We are MILES away from that in fact.

You have to think about how a Goldman trader thinks. He gives a shit about Africa. He does not think about poor blacks in Louisiana. For him, as long as enough dough in his acciunt, the world is bright. He drives the market , supported by the FED.  Not Noam Chomsky. Unfortunately.

Most likely the news flow regarding Corona will get better and better in the comming months. So the market will have an upside bias. This can be destroyed if the FED would stop supporting it. Will they do it? That is the only question which matters.

 

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