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How Charlie Brown Felt 4/29/20


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The Lancet Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial 29 Apr 2020:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext#.Xqmlt9dsTmw.twitter

Not looking as good as the market is making it out to be. It doesn't seem to really budge the needle that much in adverse effects which is what I was hoping for - see table 4. We're still seeing significant thrombocytopenia. And oddly they only found 1% had DVT whereas in most studies in the US - serious cases have an alarming rate. What is going on there? DVT is a real killer. 

 

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#COVID19 will "weigh heavily on activity, labor & #inflation in near term" - considerable #coronavirus "risk over medium term" - rates at zero "until on track to meeting dual mandate" - QE in "amounts needed" - "committed to using its full range of tools

"The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and on track to achieve [dual mandate].... will assess realized & expected economic conditions"

"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term"

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8 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

#COVID19 will "weigh heavily on activity, labor & #inflation in near term" - considerable #coronavirus "risk over medium term" - rates at zero "until on track to meeting dual mandate" - QE in "amounts needed" - "committed to using its full range of tools

"The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and on track to achieve [dual mandate].... will assess realized & expected economic conditions"

"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term"

Bullish.

Bearish would have been if they would have said something like „seeing early sign of a pick up in...“

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54 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

The Lancet Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial 29 Apr 2020:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext#.Xqmlt9dsTmw.twitter

Not looking as good as the market is making it out to be. It doesn't seem to really budge the needle that much in adverse effects which is what I was hoping for - see table 4. We're still seeing significant thrombocytopenia. And oddly they only found 1% had DVT whereas in most studies in the US - serious cases have an alarming rate. What is going on there? DVT is a real killer. 

 

Once a ship named Hope is launched in America, that supports powerful interests, it will always sail for an extended voyage. Sometimes decades. The hint that Remdesivir is  effective in preventing mild cases from going critical guarantees that hope for it is now sure to be alive and well into the fall.  Then even if that isn't proven statistically and scientifically I can guarantee that in 5 years you will find on the internet lively groups presenting conspiracy theories on why Remdesivir was abandoned.

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13 minutes ago, Jorma said:

Once a ship named Hope is launched in America, that supports powerful interests, it will always sail for an extended voyage. Sometimes decades. The hint that Remdesivir is  effective in preventing mild cases from going critical guarantees that hope for it is now sure to be alive and well into the fall.  Then even if that isn't proven statistically and scientifically I can guarantee that in 5 years you will find on the internet lively groups presenting conspiracy theories on why Remdesivir was abandoned.

I agree.

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1 hour ago, sandy beach said:

The Lancet Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial 29 Apr 2020:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext#.Xqmlt9dsTmw.twitter

Not looking as good as the market is making it out to be. It doesn't seem to really budge the needle that much in adverse effects which is what I was hoping for - see table 4. We're still seeing significant thrombocytopenia. And oddly they only found 1% had DVT whereas in most studies in the US - serious cases have an alarming rate. What is going on there? DVT is a real killer. 

 

I had a DVT. Very scary. 

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50 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

Watched it completely. Just finished now.

Essentially he said: We are there. We have tools and if needed we will use them without hesitating a second. 
He said FED wants that market functions orderly. He did NOT say that asset prices went a bit far now or something like that, FED will NOT hike rates anytime soon.

In sum this wasn‘t a bearish presser at all.

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