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wndysrf

Sudden Recoil

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Oh Dashley and Drano-they'll let her go-thats why THEY are ass deep SHORT-mid week next I suspect. ?That guy was good has to be with a name like Derwood-(I bet his brother is Dagwood). ?Suncor is one I own-they own the tar sands in Alberta which hold more oil than Saudi and venezuela combined (notice I didn't capitalize venezuela). ?Suncor is producing a barrel of oil from the shale like rock for the same price as anyone else. ?It's taken an investment of 100's of Billions of Dollars for the extraction technology but Suncor is going full blast if you want an oil play-it's Suncor. ?For a natural gas play try the BIG BOY-Encana Energy they have it coming out their ears. ?Trade Safe!

You may want to take a peek at CHK also. They did a secondary in December at $7.50 to buy assets from Onoek for $1.38/mcfe. It's never traded below that level since the offering. Today they did another offering at $8.10 to buy gas and oil assets from El Paso's firesale at $1.39/mcfe. This latest secondary pricing should provide a good floor under the price, if past history is any indicator. I COULD BE WRONG. :blink: They're selling at less that 4X CF and have SIGNIFICANT carry-forward losses from a boongoggle several years ago.

 

Downside to this play is that they have a lot of debt, but not unmanageable, and they've hedged a significant portion of their production, so if prices do fall precipitously (Yeah, right!) they will still be able to cover the debt. S&P has also indicated that they may upgrade their credit rating soon.

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This is the second time this evening HRFF has read about the DULLes' who, tragically, were HARDLY that. He also was reading about anUDDER deceased PERP of immense mischief James Jesus Angleton. The mindset of these men did enormous harm, their peculiar pathologies had a stranglehold on the levers of power in tragic ways.

 

See that avatar of HRFF that Stool chose? Well, HE said, speaking, ironically, of bulls and of John Foster Dulles that he was the only bull he knew who brought his own china shop along with him!

 

This was in the context of Ronald DUMBsfeld's arrogance, BTW.

 

Tons of evidence doesn't mean much if it isn't admissable in the court of policy making opinion. Tons of evidence doesn't matter if the jury is rigged, the trial fixed.

 

Sure, bears may be vindicated and Pile proved correct in his certitude....EVENTUALLY. The markets return to their historical financial mean.......EVENTUALLY ass Barton Biggs noted YEARS ago in BARRON'S? but they've taken about 10 years to even start that process, and it's now almost 3 years old and they're STILL not anywhere close.

 

Yes it will be "gruesome". No, there will be no pleasure in it. Which is why The BARE is somewhat? (pardon the parlance)

"put" off by all these exhortations of having "pigs" die, etc.

If one thought, carefully, about the implications of what Noland is documenting, one would want to FURget, hurriedly, what that meant.

 

The huge FURces these grotesque excesses, indulged and actively abetted over the course of three decades, have unleashed are just, now, manifesting themselves, in their latent, inexorable, and slowly gathering intensity if SNOT fury.

 

We shall reap the whirlwind. All of us, bear and bull alike, will be lucky not to be born away upon it, or, driven like straws in a tornado, into the side of the barn by it.

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It is all very disturbing.

 

"Very" isn't the word.

 

The BARE gets even more depressed about it all when he contemplates what HISTORIANS will say about this last quarter century.

 

Assuming we all don't immolate ourselves FURst, or trigger some all-too-effective pandemic, so that there ARE future historians to write about us.

 

o, tempora!!! o, mores!!!

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It's been said on this board that the Fed will likely let the market fall once the war resumes (it never actually ended). Then they'll blame the ensuing shipwreck on the war. Don't think so. Bush is going to be blamed for everything that goes wrong in this economy, war or no war. There will be no squirming out of it.

 

The PPT's biggest ally are all the 401k hopers and holders. Their options are to shift their money to MM funds, hold stocks/funds, stop contributing, or withdraw their funds. The PPT knows that if they let the market plunge, they risk lighting a fuse that'll blast the stock funds to smitherenes which, of course takes us to SP 300 or so. They have to keep the 401k people from panicing.

 

The Feds also know they're sitting on another time bomb that can result in the same thing. Rising unemployment. When one spouse loses his/her job, or takes a pay cut, benefit cut, etc., the retirement/college/etc fund will be the first casualty. Pull your money out of a 401k and take a 20% hit? Lesser of the evils. Or maybe just "borrow" it and pay it back some day. Same result, funds bleeding at every artery.

 

Bottom line? The jamming and levitating will go on indefinitly, or until the economy rebounds, or it'll be passed onto the next prez. Unless as has been said before, a 10 sigima event occurs that even the Fed can't handle. As much as I'd like to see the bastards humbled, I don't believe any of us will be happy with the outcome. :cry:

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Brian4, Piledriver: I am with you - this is going to break

to the downside. Every Financial Planner, Asset Consultant

, Mutual Fund Manager, Investor, Trader is expecting a War Rally a la 1990-91.

 

But they just don't get it. The game is over. Forget about the BPIs, the CPC the VIX, the short term gyrations - this market is about to crack - into the NOLAND/HYPERTIGER zone.

 

I entered 2 new positions today - shorts on XLNX and LEH

- with tight stops.

Both are significant BEARX holdings and are complete rubbish.

 

The Goberments growing share of GDP - is just

one more ominous sign. Refer Buffet's core fundamental factors.

 

Interest rates, corporate % of GDP, productivity/profitability

- they are all now stiff HEADWINDS.

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"Call it what you want, but to think that our officials are not intervening in the markets would be na?ve. This is wartime folks. All is fair in love and war? You better believe it! Our leaders have no intention of losing, either with bombs or in the financial markets. It?s a long story, but you can research how the cold war with Russia was brought to an end during the Reagan Administration. With the help of Margaret Thatcher and the Pope, Reagan brought the Russians to their financial knees by crushing the price of oil and gold which were two of the primary sources of income for the Russians. Financial market intervention is in fact what ended the cold war."

 

Read It, All Of It

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Courtesy of Machinehead and TE: [found it on my 'puter] B)

 

 

wanna tell you 'bout Capitalstool and the Bearish Beat

It comes out of the Florida swamps

Cool and slow with plenty of precision

And a cycle narrow and hard to master

 

Some call it heavenly in its brilliance

Others, mean and ruthful of the bullish dream

 

I love the friends Stool has gathered together on this thin raft

We have constructed pyramids in honor of our escaping

This is the land where the poodits lied

 

The brokers in the forest, brightly feathered

They are saying, Forget the slide

Invest with us in forests of azure

Out here on the perimeter there are no 'sells'

Out here we is stoned - immaculate

 

Listen to this, I'll tell you 'bout the downwave

I'll tell you 'bout the downwave and the margin calls

I'll tell you 'bout the hopeless slide

The meager quotes on stocks forgot

I'll tell you 'bout the bonkers with wrought iron soul

 

I'll tell you this

No eternal reward will forgive us now for missing the top

 

I'll tell you 'bout Capitalstool and the Bearish Beat

Soft-driven, slow and mad, like some new language

 

Now listen to this, I'll tell you 'bout the Doctor

I'll tell you 'bout the Doctor's cycle lows

I'll tell you 'bout the hopeless night

Wandering the bullish dream

I'll tell you 'bout the bonkers with wrought iron soul

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Purdymouth -

 

I stumbled across the CyclePro charts you linked several months ago took one look and said 'holy sh*t!'.

 

Those charts say it all more clearly than any others I've seen. Particularly #1.

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The problem with bears is they want instant gratification. Need I remind that the time to be short was March 2000. If you'd loaded the boat with shorts then all would be well. (I couldn't, the majority of my funds were 401K, and I didn't have the balls to take the tax hit and get out. I did get out of stocks and have small positive returns in 2000 till June 02 when I got those funds by a layoff). I don't want to put anyones nose out of joint but the grand slam came 3 years ago. The bases were loaded. Now the nasty is down 75% and the big indexes down 50%. Sure I think they are going down more. I'm hoping for a double or maybe a solo homer.

 

Imagine how longs feel. All those folks whose IRA's and 401's are down 50% or more. Now there is pain. The worst part of which is that they can't admit it to themselves or publicly. Denial and shame are eating at the guts of tens of millions. Then there is the really big money. The highest decile who hold half or 90% of all stocks, or whatever the hell the number is. Well discussing them falls into the area of politics so I'll lay off.

 

As Doc and Noland have commented, the liquidity machine has been running strong. Expecting a plunge now is silly from a statistical point of view. Placing bets on the Ten Sigma is a one in a million. A total flyer. Just getting a sustained downmove in the face of the liqudity flood is problematical and that's that.

 

Mark was dead on with his New Year resolution to play the jams. Now this goes against Docs principals, I think I'm safe saying. The principal that you don't buy into this stinking heap of lies because in a certains sense it's immoral. Well, a good speculator doesn't let morality intrude on his trading. I agreed with Mark's idea but went back to work so have been spared the opprotunity to game from the long side. (I'm stuck with leveraged funds on the short side, and perhaps stupidly and with exquisite timing, decided to play Doc's 10-13 week cycle only. Still up a bit for the year. Still think we will end the cycle with a dive to Docs targer)

 

Most here take great emotional satisfaction in the sort of ethical/moral justifications for why bears are right. All well and good. After 18 months hanging around bear sites however I've seen all the arguements a million times, and made quite a few of them myself. From day one, especially from the day I could finally play the short side I've known in my gut it's going to be hard making big returns being a bear. Why, the market is after me of course. Besides, most importantly, I missed the top. The easiest money has been made. (and I'm sure damn few made any on the initial plunge. Now there are millions trying to take the bear side and we are our own worse enema, as Doc says.)

 

So I'm not sure of my final point. I think one can make a superior moral arguement that playing the long side is wrong. The thing is money and making it has nothing to do with morality. So lets seperate the two.

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For all you cats that are getting wound up by the action in the SM why not follow a very simple bearish trading plan.

 

In multimples of $1000 risk

 

On monday buy $500 of Sep o-t-m puts on QQQ and/or SMH and/or SPY and/or DIA

 

Buy another $250 of puts on a rally

 

Buy another $250 if we take out the Dec 02 highs

 

Nice defined risk, volatilty not so high at the moment for the premiums and you can sit back without worrying what the freaks on Wall St get up to today, tomorrow, the following week etc.

 

I agree that it's not the most sophisticated plan but it will pay off big if/when something happens and free up plenty of your time so you don't have to watch every tick and/or feel that today's action somehow means something as to the overall direction over the next x months.

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Guest

Jorma, while I agree with many of the points you made I have to disagree when you say "I've known in my gut it's going to be hard making big returns being a bear." I think many in here do quite well being bears, considering it's a BEAR market. I'm talking intermediate term traders not the quick and nimble like B4 who play both sides. You also say "Now the nasty is down 75% and the big indexes down 50%. Sure I think they are going down more." So what are you saying exactly? Even though you think the market will go down there will be no big returns going short?

 

Signed "Confused"

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Lol Machinehead, where did you dig that up from...

 

If that's a joint she's holding it's the neatest rollup I've ever seen! Obviously pre-bong days...

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