Sudden Recoil

[Hiding Bear]

Thanks again Mark for another interesting week of market reviews. Even though I've stayed at least 50% bearish from Spring 2000, it is good to look on both sides of the street. Look forward to your comical dissection of the market whenever it suits you.

 

I think Col Dashley, BAREister, and Draino have nailed what is happening to the market. It feels like its defying gravity, but not because of bullish buyers but some invisible hand.

 

In retrospect, the 9/11 tradgedy proved that economic fialures can be blamed on single events. If $40 oil and $20 natural gas doesn't shake up the market, then nothing will until we get the "event". After the "event" occurs, bad things including a stock market decline can be allowed. We also should start looking for a place to short the bond market, since the budget deficit post-event will then come close to $1 trillion (excluding the SS surplus) per year .

[Old Habits]

Brian4 - Thanks for the Suncor and the Encana, will definitely check them out.

 

Don't read IDS anymore, don't daytarde anymore. Too painful to the emotions and the wallet.

 

One thing for SURE, if you lock into a mentality about where the market will go (or should go), whether bullish or bearish, YOU ARE DEAD MEAT AND WILL LOSE YOUR ASS!!! I know this from LOSING MY ASS.

It seems to me that successful traders are guys like Brian4 who hedge and can maintain proper discipline if things start to go against them. I couldn't do it after 9/11 or in Oct. 2002 and have severely paid the price. A 7 digit price.

 

Windy- hang tough. You are an amazing writer and investor.

 

Lastly - no one should ever have to apologize for their market position unless they are advising others on how to trade. The market will continue to make fools out of GURUS.

[3Martinis]

Ruk*hic*eyser...

 

I swear that "wink/crooked smile" shtick of his is the creepiest thing I've ever seen. For some reason it makes my skin crawl. He probably sits outside the local sorority house and practices doing that. *hic* Ghastly......

[GTNWORSE]

Hey Guys,

Well it looks like I missed another episode of "Trouble in Stoolville". Just my 2 cents but I think that the chemistry on this board is what makes it so great, and that includes ALL of the participants and their respective views. It's the ONLY board I read and post to.

Very appropriate that I am still, albiet painfully, long 4,000 shares of RYVYX @10.50 for two f*cking weeks. It seems like a year. A move up on Monday and I sell, no questions asked.

What is concerning me right now is the continued slide in bond yields. As a mortgage banker it's great, but as someone who realizes the implications with respect to the economy well you guys know what I mean.

There is always the possiblity that it's all due to "safe haven" buying surrounding geo-political tension........I'm just practicing for my Crapvision interview.

Have a nice weekend.

[crooked_analyst]

Great way to end the week...my Tenant which occupies a whole floor called to say that they were filing BK - trouble is, he's personally guaranteed the lease and has some assets. Many Tenants bailing out of their spaces. I get three calls a day asking if I'll sell yet there are vacancies everywhere. I represent a small building and haven't even "Listed" it officially, and I'm sitting on FOUR purchase offers.

 

Hypertiger is dead on accurate. The game ends when people quit racking up the debt.

[PileDriver]

GTN, two different sources I read (can't recall them) suspect a good drop in interest rates into March/April but then its over ( the bond bull market). They start heading back up after that and substantially so.

 

I guess we'll see.

 

Are you for real on the Crapvision interview, if so let us know when.

[The End]

Just watched Bruce Springsteen on CBS. His concerts are great. One of the best songwriters ever!

 

Backstreets- Born to un album.

 

 

BACKSTREETS

 

One soft infested summer me and Terry became friends

Trying in vain to breathe the fire we was born in

Catching rides to the outskirts tying faith between our teeth

Sleeping in that old abandoned beach house getting wasted in the heat

And hiding on the backstreets, hiding on the backstreets

With a love so hard and filled with defeat

Running for our lives at night on them backstreets

 

Slow dancing in the dark on the beach at Stockton's Wing

Where desperate lovers park we sat with the last of the Duke Street Kings

Huddled in our cars waiting for the bells that ring

In the deep heart of the night to set us loose from everything

to go running on the backstreets, running on the backstreets

We swore we'd live forever on the backstreets we take it together

 

Endless juke joints and Valentino drag where dancers scraped the tears

Up off the street dressed down in rags running into the darkness

Some hurt bad some really dying at night sometimes it seemed

You could hear the whole damn city crying blame it on the lies that killed us

Blame it on the truth that ran us down you can blame it all on me Terry

It don't matter to me now when the breakdown hit at midnight

There was nothing left to say but I hated him and I hated you when you went away

 

Laying here in the dark you're like an angel on my chest

Just another tramp of hearts crying tears of faithlessness

Remember all the movies, Terry, we'd go see

Trying to learn how to walk like heroes we thought we had to be

And after all this time to find we're just like all the rest

Stranded in the park and forced to confess

To hiding on the backstreets, hiding on the backstreets

We swore forever friends on the backstreets until the end

Hiding on the backstreets, hiding on the backstreets

[stiffed]

Hey I'm long, short and physical!

 

I've got long term BEARX holdings, Canadian Maple Leafs, little bit of sterling on deposit (4% per year). Now I'm trying an experiment with longs via a little bit of PAAS and various other longs depending on what looks likely to happen to them over the next six weeks or so.

 

This longs thing is a new experiment, a NEW way to lose money for me

 

I'll let you know how it is going in six months or so, when I've got some history behind me.

 

Interesting stuff on the web tonight:

 

Insider's take on Davos Nice and bearish!

 

Soros on current US financials. I don't have a view - I just like accumulating views. Mark's, Doc's, Simple Guy, Piles', Soros, or whoever Laurie is in the Davos clip... It's all part of reality.

 

Stay short, and long, and physical... uh huh!

 

Stiffed

[brian4]

END- You and I who agree-finally do on MUSIC- Da Boss Is Da Man! Now on the markets to many of you listen to the bs and the bs can get to you-the only thing about procto vision that is good is Caruso-cabrara who is a real women-Emma to me is skinny, stupid and unitelligible. Emotion is what kills good traders they listen to the noise and react to it all that counts is resistance and support levels, trin and ticks and charts and of course your stop levels if your stops are in you can have a life. The END and I had a good conversation today about kids (his) Grandchildren (mine) with the market doing it's thing and neither of us was worried. That really is what it's all about-don't be scared by the Bogey man! Trade Safe!

[Pee Brain]

Even though I've started to wonder if this is true, there probably is a limit to how long they can keep this thing afloat because of the need to keep the dollar the reserve currency -- a limit to how much they can debase it.

 

My own undoubtedly completely erroneous theory is that they're going to do what they can to keep it up until the first shot is fired, at which point they'll let it collapse because it can be blamed on the war, not them. They are really excellent manipulators, as we have learned to our sorrow, but they know this can't go on like this forever.

 

Remember that I am a contrarian indicator.

 

USD wont collapse if the potential war goes well. that will bode well for USD remaining as petro currency and reserve currecny. USD gets a pop on good start or short war. gold goes down on USD strength.

[martialcomp]

John Mauldin on the markets again this week.

 

"My studies show that the stock market drops an average of 43% before and

during a recession. I think the next big leg down in the stock market will

be precipated by a recession. Could we see the market drop another 40%? The

short answer is yes."

 

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.htm

 

He also has some excellent paragraphs on earnings. Says fair value P to E of 15 = S&P at 451.

[bubbadropping]

Scanning the board tonite what I see is the spiritual malaise that has resulted from enduring a back to back OE Jam and now a half assed EOM play by the PigMen. The good news is come Tuesday all the fake hydraulics will have to shelved. There are no more earnings announcements to rig or worry about and there is not going to be any War until the 101st airborne first gets into place which doesn't happen until March 15. I think they go on the new moon of March 25. This gives stoolies plenty of time to profit from loose index bowel movement which I beleive is in the cards once we get EOM out of the way. Crude analysis I know but if there is one thing about this liars Market it is that when the magicians run out of tricks, the whole thing just drops like fat lady pushed out of as 747 at 33,000 feet. We have some running run up around the bend. No more earnings bullshit,no WAR for at least 2 more weeks and no OE for 3 weeks and EOM just about up. My forensic peter-meter is beginning to rise again and may just sprout a serious woodie this coming week. Colonel Dash is dead on about the serious internal diviseness on the Econ team. We are right on track for Al Green to fold his tent and I think it will be sooner rather than later. The little bush moron still remembers what GreenWeaner did to his daddie and won't forgive. He has just been given his reason to axe the old fart since dissension is absolutely not tolerated in this secret government ,NO WAY. Paul O'Squeals firing was a shot directly across the Al Green bow and I beleive now his days are numbered. the Nixon implosion is the blueprint for the bush downfall. Narrow minded,mean spirited,vindictive arrogance that finally hoists itself by its own petar.

[Takachi]

If I were one of the Da Boyz, I'd drop the market to just below Oct lows immediately before the invasion (I can't call it a war, its an invasion) and use that initial bounce as a springboard for a sustained jam ride up. You know Greasepan will be complicitous with as much money as necessary. And given the preponderance of puts out there, It may all happen just before March OE. If it gets low enough, it looks to me like Doc's cycles could align to give it a really convincing rally into Doc's next 10-13 wk mid summer drop off.

 

 

BTW, early in the thread someone referenced lower exports and higher imports. Probably true, but remember the same amount of stuff will produce those stats with a lower valued dollar. Higher costing imports and cheaper exports will be the rule for 9-12 months even if dollar denominated stuff gets cheaper overseas.

[summoner]

Bulls and viagra everywhere and they still cant sport a woodie. No position changes, LTSH, they cant run me off, all the spin and they still cant move this thing. Will be offline next week on vacation in Miami. Last sept closed my shorts while out of the country and it cost me major duckets, not this time, daily news is noise. Y'all keep the bear camp warm and make some coin for crissake. See ya in a week, and if it makes you sleep any better, know that Daboyz are net short and the sheeple are about to get summoners scalpel again.

[Guest BEARDRECH]

I,M VERY SURPRISED AT THE collective state of mind of residents of stoolville;as if it didnt occur to many of you that when you started to day trade with all of the presuppositions of an about--to-happen catastrophe you were,among other things,were going to the mat with the eight hindred pound gorilla:THE financial leaders of the mightiest nation on the face of the earth--

How and why should it surprise us that a great nation-I say this without any sarcasm--can manage to scramble for survival with seemingly endless ease--The PPT was designed for a post nuclear "Laydown" economy--and with the best intentions:so that its citizens would have another chance at life and future living

Can we help it if the financial bastards of wall street led by their leader the Fed, through mechanisms i can only cconjecture, hijacked this well-intentiond emergency plan, and abused it for selfish purposes,thus enriching their wall street fellow members of the fraternity : kaka babel shitow??-

Instead of being sucked into their sucker's vortex why not step back and take a spectatorial view and exercise your intelligence in trying to discern novel dimensions in this tidal wave of bowser hockey--

If you dont have the savvy yet,of a pile driver or a brian4 or a sg or a bontchev & co,like myself,a raw amateur, why not,until you,ve studied their methods,and aquired their sophistication take comfortable long range positions like gold-yes i mean comfortble, feather-bedded gold despite my sportfollyio being down recently; and wait until you see the actual collapse unfolding;

 

Martin weiss describes his father buying everything in sight at the bottom of the market when the only tick you heard was the one scratching on the belly of the stray dog in a wall street alley--

Why not have a weekly post mortem on all of the market anomalies that screwed blued and tatood some of us?-

Why not examine the noise and how its used by sharpies to disguise actual street hustling mechanics?--not only would it divert one's need for constant action but it might sharpen your trading skills--remeber the old adage of the frenzied 50's when the Dulles brothers were admonished to---"Dont just do something;stand there"

When Pile and hypertiger say something i listen because its with the confidence of someone who has tons of evidence in favor of his position;a position which i read and accept

Why not study the admonitions of Dok and many others unmentioned who are proven successes??--

Ultimately There is no rescuing of this market until it falls to ground; and if this rough beast (depression )now slouching its way towards its logical terminus waiting to be born is like watching paint dry so be it--"Patience patience" cried the unemployed sawbones---And, lastly, if you think i take the slightest pleasure in knowing the day is coming when we ,as a group, will be proven right about the sordid nature of this market youre sadly mistaken--it will be too gruesome a crackup,i believe,to take any pleasure in..

:shocked :cry: :cry: